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KeithinCali

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  1. After those particularly long negative phases did the subsequent positive periods that followed trend long, medium, short, or was it a mixed bag?
  2. I’m not picking any. I’ll leave that to our more ambitious and informed contributors. When it comes to analog blends, in my view, it’s better to select a few well synced analogs than several marginal ones. Otherwise you’re typically dealing with lots of deviation and you end up with just noise. I know that you know this just from discussions in this thread. As for selecting an array of analogs to throw out there based on a couple of inputs just to see the spread of possibilities...minimal isolated correlative data doesn’t mean a whole lot. What happened in the Atlantic those years? The Arctic, Eurasia? What phases were being transitioned into and out of? I think it’s all up in the air at this point with no strong ENSO guidance. I’m not sure neutral and low solar is really sufficient. If it was (and I was a winter loving easterner) then I’d certainly be eying those late 70s years hoping for weak ninos in the coming years. Since the solar nadir (76?) and subsequent upswing occurred from the mid to late 70s. 76, 77, and 79 being weak Ninos (78 neutral).
  3. How are you picking your analogs though? That would be my question.
  4. 2016 - 2017 wasn’t neutral was it? Thought it was solidly in weak Nina territory. Are you banking on a cool neutral or weak Nina at this point? Generally I do think a warm neutral or weak Nino is better for winter lovers east of the Rockies. However other steering factors have a stronger impact when ENSO straddles neutral. So forecasting this far out during neutralish times is more of a gambit than usual. 1993-1994 wasn’t a bad winter for cold & snow in the Windy City & Big Apple.
  5. Isn’t a positive neutral Winter still a reasonable possibility?
  6. Beware the false dawn of October snow. Central Park received 3in in Oct 2011. For that entire winter they got a whopping 7in!
  7. Direct Weather seems to invariably predict a variation of west coast ridge/midwest-east trough in the long range. I believe the forecast for last winter was similar to this. Not that I think it won’t happen just that the long range forecasts are very samey. My childlike mind does like DW’s large map and pretty graphics though.
  8. Well I hope California can really cash in on this rain over the next week. May not see much for awhile if a ridge pattern digs in and persists. So hopefully the Sierra snowpack receives a good cache.
  9. 18 months ago? Right now I don’t even trust any forecasts/models beyond Thanksgiving. Well should say it’s a matter of confidence not trust.
  10. Isn't one of the major drawbacks of composite analogs is that they don't account for deviation? Particularly when the analogs in question don't really exemplify a bell curve? In other words if you use analogs that are combination of torch winters and ice box winters wouldn't the resulting composite be misleading? Even if most instances don't involve such extreme deviation. Any preponderance of well above/below avg years over years that straddle closer to the avg ranges the analog blend wouldn't really account for the wide breadth of possibilities. It seems like this would be particularly an issue with areas that have the variability of a continental climate like much of the eastern 2/3rd of the 48.
  11. And winter lovers over in Europe would be infatuated with that map. I notice one of the years included is 2010.
  12. Really hope we don't get scrooged by the PV this winter. Especially when a constellation of other favorable factors may be aligning.
  13. My dreamcast would be 1977. What a great winter 1977-1978 was! That year NYC (Central Park) received 50 inches of snow, Chicago received an impressive 82 inches, and Los Angeles received 33 inches of rain. Almost every winter there are winners and losers. Troughs and Ridges. But that winter was special. For those more knowledgeable than myself what was the set-up and confluence of factors that made that winter possible?
  14. Just to throw a bit of shimmery glitter on the pigeon poop...As you know 2013-2014 was a spectacularly good winter for the eastern 2/3rds. December 1989 was one of the coldest Decembers on record.
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