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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

TC1

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  1. Hope the long-range 0z NAM is wrong. I have to be out Sunday afternoon and early evening, and I don't need or want any freezing rain crap.
  2. Did I miss anything while we were all gone?
  3. I think we can stick a fork in this storm, as it certainly seems done for anyone north of the Mason Dixon line.
  4. I just wanted to bring this back up from the earlier Sterling report... Could they have played it down any harder? The Euro, the GFS, the FV3, the CMC, the NAVGEM, the Icon... they were all showing basically the same thing this morning (they still are as of 12z) And since I didn't see it posted, here's the 18z NAM from TT, which looks a little different with the northern edge of the precip shield than what's been posted...
  5. The 6z FV3 basically holds serve...
  6. The 6z GFS continues to have the storm suppressed and OTS. I think... wait... yes, I believe I hear a few towel tossing machines being fired up
  7. The 0z Euro is also still singing the "Suppressed and OST" tune. Not sure what the precip field looks like, but the paths of those lows should look pretty familiar to everyone by now...
  8. The 0z FV3 continues to show this storm being suppressed and OTS...
  9. Didn't see anyone post the 0z Icon, sooooo...
  10. Just watched the latest EPAWA video. I'll summarize for those who don't feel like watching it (or hate having a BIG video image pop up here)... Right now, they're calling a 70% chance (hinted at making it higher but stuck with 70%) that it misses to the south. 30% chance that it comes a little more north and affects at least the southern areas. They also drew some lines saying that places like State College and Wilkes Barre shouldn't hold their breath. Along I-78, very slim chance that it gets that high (but wouldn't bank on it). Along I-95, little bit better of a chance, "but... ehhh." Southern NJ and Delaware, they're watching for some fringe impacts perhaps (even if it doesn't come farther north). They summed it up by saying that if there are no changes in the models by the time they do their video tomorrow (after the models have gotten to sample things better on the West Coast), then they don't think there will be and the storm will miss to the south.
  11. The 6z FV3 puts the storm south of the Mason-Dixon line again...
  12. EPAWA's thoughts on it...
  13. It's a possibility, but I submit this thought... Over the last few years, back on the Accu forums, we all watched storms that had much in their favor, yet they did their own thing. Coastal hits became Great Lakes Cutters as the storm date neared. GLCs became fish storms. Hell, we watched one storm that did absolutely nothing in my area when it was supposed just dump on us (more than once, actually). Plus, we've got a number of things not being sampled for a few days yet. So between weather curve balls and a lack of more focused data, I'm not quite onboard with you. Not saying it's impossible or that it won't happen, but I'm not ready to put any chips down yet. And as someone who has tried to learn from reading people here, and following the likes of EPAWA, Cranky and others online elsewhere, I've picked up on the idea that just because all of the triggers are generally in place (EPO, NAO, etc.), doesn't mean they will detonate when or where you expect them to. So yeah. Those are my thoughts on it. No toe stomping intended Uscg ast. I guess the word "expect" just got me to open my mouth on things... for better or worse
  14. If the 0z CMC were to be right, that would be a very bad outcome for my area in east-central PA. Basically a foot of wet, heavy snow coming down in about six hours while it's around 35ºF. No thanks.
  15. Both the GFS and the FV3 remain suppressed pretty far south for their 6z runs...
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