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FortySixAnd32

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About FortySixAnd32

  • Birthday 01/25/1976

Personal Information

  • Locale
    Newark, Ohio

Stuff

  • Interests
    My family, HS Football coach, TOSU Football, Hunting.
  • Perfect Day
    Skiing in the morning, golf in the afternoon and chasing whitetail in the evening.

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  1. TWC coverage of this event is abysmal. Thank goodness for our forum and the up to the second accounts of those brave and dedicated storm chasers!
  2. Looks like a classic Derecho setup but the temp field out ahead of it is probably not conducive.
  3. Now the wind has really picked up. It's blowing stronger than it has all day and the temp is dropping.
  4. It's now 76° 30° temp increase in 3 hours. Wow!
  5. Wind just picked up out of nowhere. Easily 30-35 mph gust. It's now 70° and humidity is sticky.
  6. Sun is shining. Temp has gone from 47° at noon to currently 67°. Slight breeze. Feels like the calm before the storms.
  7. ILN: SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Models are coming into better agreement for severe weather potential on Sunday. Strong low pressure will move northeast from the lower Ohio Valley to northwest Ohio by late Sunday afternoon. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing during the morning hours as a strong, moist LLJ pivots east. As this occurs, a warm front will being to lift north into the region, and then move as far northwest as our far northwest CWFA where the low will eventually track toward. The airmass is expected to destabilize fairly quickly in the warm sector behind the initial large band of showers and embedded thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. This is indicated nicely on the 12Z NAM model sounding forecast at 20Z for KILN. Deep layer shear will be in place, 70-90 knots between 0-6 km, and even 50-60 knots between 0-3 km. Hodographs indicate nice clockwise turning of winds with height in part to the proximity of the nearby surface low. MLCAPEs of ~ 1000 J/kg is also forecast. These parameters will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms as they develop along and ahead of a trailing cold front as it moves from west to east through our region Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. High resolution models indicate convective lines/bowing segments, and perhaps some discrete supercells. This will result in damaging winds being the main severe weather threat. However, a few tornadoes may occur given the setup (discrete supercells), especially along and southeast of I-71 where SRH values are the highest. In addition, isolated large hail may occur, given rotating updrafts, and locally heavy rain/localized flash flooding may result after the morning widespread rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches (making for moist soils). These threats have been placed in the latest HWO. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 50s far northwest, to perhaps the lower to mid 70s across the southeast. It will also become breezy to locally windy on the synoptic scale with wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph in the warm sector. For Sunday night, as the low continues on its track northeast toward New England, the cold front will move east of our area during the early evening, bring the end to the severe weather threat. CAA and a few/scattered showers will be possible during the evening, with pcpn tapering off from west to east overnight. Post-frontal stratocumulus will remain. Winds will be gusty between 25 and 35 mph. Temperatures will cool off with lows bottoming out from the lower 30s northwest to the upper 30s southeast.
  8. ILN: SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A storm system will begin to move into the region towards the start of the short term. For the first part of the night tonight just expect some lighter shower activity to begin to move in. Rain will pick up and become more widespread through the second half of the overnight hours as better upper support moves into the area. While instability is limited there will be the potential for some thunder across southern portions of the forecast area. Although the overall severe threat is low during the overnight hours, cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms. In addition, with some of the heavier rainfall there is the potential for some flooding issues as well. Have mentioned these threats in the HWO. The first round of storms will move eastward and some additional activity will bring a better potential for severe weather for primarily the afternoon and early evening hours. Damaging winds will be the primarily threat, however with the low moving across the area a few tornadoes will also be possible. With the multiple rounds of rain expected, flash flooding will also be a concern. Isolated large hail cannot be ruled out. The greater severe potential will be near and southeast of Interstate 71. There will be a wide range in temperatures across the region for Sunday with around a 30 degree difference in temperatures across the forecast area. As such temperatures across Mercer and Auglaize will find it hard to get out of the 40s and 50s on Sunday situated northwest of the surface low. As such have slightly different wording and lower threat wording in the HWO for these two counties. Due to the proximity of the low and potential for slight shifts, did not want to take severe threat completely out of the HWO across the far northwest. Even outside of thunderstorms there will be the potential for wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph on Sunday given low level wind fields.
  9. Sun is blaring. Might fuel late afternoon/evening.
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