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Poconosnow

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Poconosnow last won the day on November 29 2018

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About Poconosnow

  • Birthday 08/19/1982

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  1. It’s that zen garden I bet. 😜
  2. This period needs to be watched for a possible benchmark to Coastal hugger type storm strong signal on ensembles last few runs Miller AB hybrid?
  3. A clipper system arrives in the region towards the latter hours of December 23rd. While overall impacts will be relatively light, there could be brief periods of heavy snow and reduced visibility. Currently, it appears that there is cold air to work with, pushing the rain/snow line down to NYC. The most "significant" aspect of this storm is that it may prevent a "brown" Christmas by providing snowcover to areas that haven't seen a major snowstorm in over a month.
  4. Eastern pacific oscillation is a variation of the atmospheric flow across the eastern pacific. Here is the epo index pattern in its +phase for h5 and surface temps (negative would be the opposite of map) When in the + phase mild air flows onto the west coast and as it crosses the Rocky Mountains it dries out and becomes temperate and sinks. In the east we would rather the epo be negative, as would be the opposite of the above +phase depiction. A ridge would be in place over the east pacific off the west coast and high pressure would force the air up into Alaska and the artic. The ridge would displace the colder air down into the central and nothern US which would then modify our temperatures here in the northeast as well also indicated on the above index pattern. The stronger the -epo the more cold that can be displaced, the longer the epo stays negative the longer the temperatures in the central and nothern reaches of the US will stay modified. So no the hugely +epo upcoming is not good for snows in the east which makes the current model depictions of a snowstorm so difficult. However bombogenesis can create its own dynamics as we well know. Fascinating to watch the battle on the models for this period.
  5. 18z gefs with a brilliant offering Some bombers in the 970-980mb range transferring and running up the coast almost too good 😛 If the east coast can pull a snow from the depths of an extended pac jet and +epo period bravo. Would be an impressive presentation.
  6. Busiest travel time of the year is just about two weeks away. Christmas falls on a Tuesday this year so the weekend prior will most definitely be a highly traveled few days. There appears to be a possibility that there could be a disturbance to monitor. A few organic signals key in on the period between the 22-26th the BSR Depiction: A GOM low pressure rises up on the westward side of the apps into a cold HP which forces it’s transfer to the coast south of Delmarva here is the current 32kNam analysis and forecast of the transfer seen on the bsr East asia rule needs to be looked in a long range forecast so it’s very volatile in nature Can only surmise a few things: last few gfs runs have a trough moving over Japan on the 19th which would be a short 6 day correlation to the east coast of the US. Also a strong southern jet steak is being amplified by a nothern injection from a split flow. Interestingly enough there appears to be a possible typhoon in the region. If true it will aid in dropping heights from its latent heat production. the MJO is forecasted to be entering phase 4 during the lead up to this period. Phase 4 and 5 during an El Niño or neutral conditions is not favorable for negative anomalous 500mb geopotential heights. Composite: All the same, we must consider the Mjo and enso state in such long range depictions. Among other signals The SOI had a sharp increase towards the end of November which resulted in an ~10pts rise around Nov 28th. The resultant composite posted in the long range Winter thread by @jdrenkenwould be valid Dec 23rd. Finally in the face of some positive storm signals but also some possible warmers tempature signals we must consider the affects of a 3-4 week lag on the eastern US from a wave 2 stratospheric warming which occurred in the last week of November. Here was the time series plot from Jma of wave total and zonal strat temperatures along with the final look of the displacement on Nov 29 Numerical model predictions: current 0z cfs for Dec 25th also @StretchCT posted a shot of the long range Euro for around Christmas in the Long range winter thread. A volatile December temperature wise seems to be upon us. A hugely +epo should be crashing just prior to Christmas couple that with the lagged effect of the wave 2 stratospheric displacement over the northeast US and we have the makings of some large temperature swings possible entering the the last week of December. Volatility breeds storms so it’s best to keep an eye out for the huge travel weekend leading up to Christmas and the day following. A Happy and Safe Holiday to all! 🎅
  7. Here is current Christmas bsr loop for the 22-26th. Ill prolly update with last last couple frames once they run.
  8. I don’t really reccomend using the organic signals to try and figure out a storm type. The wave train sometimes is responding to different harmonics and other teleconnected tendencies as they pass through different geographies. But I think the BSR has a transferish feel. This storm imho will likely need a transfer to produce in the east coast, just my current thinking.
  9. The ensembles actually ticked worse at 18z but there’s enough time for them to produce largely different results as their is a large maritime gale and the 10-11th storm downstream. Their 48hr trend looks good to great even... If this is going to be a wintery storm for the east coast it likely have to be a large transfer. It’s very nothern stream driven and the wave spacing between this and the earlier storm doesn’t really produce or anchor in a cold HP. Definitely worth watching. It has a strong organic signal... japan is also getting their largest snowstorm of the year on the 7th. You know I like when it snows in japan for the east coast to see snow 6-8 days later. LJS index will be pretty high for this one 😛
  10. Edit: Whoops saw this was already posted... it’s cool looking enough to see it twice 😎 actually matches that 18z gfs op run quite nice
  11. That’s quality stuff out of Mt holly. Bravo 👏
  12. 12z eps mean and spread hr144(the farthest it’s loaded currently) the bulk of the spread at this hour is generally north/northeast. But it does appear that spread exists to the west and northwest. There is also significant spread downstream as well as over the Hudson where our nothern stream is arriving from. I believe a lot of the current ensemble suites are going to be steered by how their control gets initialized. So take that into consideration going forward, not even the ensembles are free of large swings in depiction one way or the other for about the next 36-48 hours or so. We are currently at a precipice with how and when the nothern stream reacts to our arriving southern stream disturbance, both in regards to early confluence and the later arriving energy parcel.
  13. Northwest the trend on roughly half the members is to inject the nothern energy into the disturbance keeping it tucked to the coast near Delmarva.... while the other half have a later injection which spawns the “second storm” off the southeast coast which tracks harmlessly OTS. The tucked lps are generally strong and appear to be in the 980s. Would be quite the storm for the east coast. We are watching the final solution evolve and as time decreases so will the spread one way or the other.
  14. 12z gefs members slp with spread notable NW spread centered just off Delmarva at 144-180hrs. More adjustments are likely.
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