Jump to content
Search In
  • More options...
Find results that contain...
Find results in...

RobBucksPA

Supporter
  • Content Count

    400
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    5

RobBucksPA last won the day on August 16

RobBucksPA had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

715 Excellent

Personal Information

  • Locale
    Doylestown

Stuff

  • Perfect Day
    Home with the family. Steaks on the grill. 66 degrees. Low humidity. Wind from the North at 6MPH. No bugs flying around. Three clouds in the sky.

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Ok, so the weather stinks. It’s August. August stinks, usually. i just don’t want to see this in October, like we did last year. Let’s just grit our teeth and muscle through this typically nasty month... Hang in there!
  2. You folks seen the EPA (Eastern PA) weather site, epaweather.com? Current headline: Iso’d PM storm threat remains each day thru Saturday, but no washouts… That's a cut/paste. They have my interest. I'll have to keep an eye on them.
  3. Boring August Weather here in the East. Muggy. Pop up T-Storms. Not too hot, yet, but that's coming - August is hardly the end of summer. I'm with @lynniethelurker, however, in that it always *feels* like the end of summer. I know some college students who are already back, and a lot of them are starting next week. So far we have clearly been in a better pattern than last year. The deluges of the first half of the year have given way to seasonal rains, and the water table has fallen a bit. Still plenty of water out there, and the humidity is keeping drying to a minimum, but at least things aren't getting worse. Last year, almost to Thanksgiving, was Waterworld. Hot, wet, and flooding. OTOH, we haven't really had any kind of nice-stretch for a couple of weeks now. Vacationers have had to settle for "not rain," which is not the same as a "sunny, nice day." Not many of those this month so far. A couple of weeks ago we got something like 3 of them in a row, and that was magnificent, but they are now the exception and not the rule. Current fantasy-cast from AW has more of the same for at least a week: hot, muggy, and possible water every day. No current call for a deluge, and no current call for any kind of nice stretch. A week from today, if you care to invest your emotions in such things, the forecast is for a perfect day. Nobody, not even the mets who publish it, is claiming that this is really what's going to happen... but it would be nice. We'll see.
  4. Read that somewhere in Michigan they got 18 inches of hail. I cannot imagine the damage. That is horrible, in every way. I wonder if it was forecast? Your point is good, Lynnie , that better to be safe than sorry. I do think that there is too much “safety“ when the language is that strong
  5. Seriously? Here, not 120 miles away, it's so humid that you have to use your windshield wipers to push the condensation from the glass. It's 70 degrees and foggy, that's how much water is in the air, here. Nothing is dry. Wow... I'm jealous.
  6. As @lynniethelurker said, this is the thread where I posted, so I'll reply here. I was in a meeting yesterday where someone told me that their kids viewed email as glacially slow. Why would anyone use that, when there is Instant Messaging (and 50 other instant apps)? So, yes, we live in a world where people expect news to be reported, preferably before it even happens. I believe that this actually doubles-down on my point. Mets need to either KNOW that they are right (almost an impossibility), or hedge their language. I believe the second path is the only logical path, and the proof is the many times that I've come down on them here for flubbing major forecasts. I don't care if they flub a minor forecast. If they predict 85 degrees and it gets to 88 degrees, who really cares? I do, however, take serious issue with the dissemination of "Catastrophe Forecasts" without a crushingly high level of certainty. So high, in fact, that this wouldn't be my third or fourth thread in the last year to that effect. We should see this kind of miss maybe once every other year. Maybe. If they really can't do better, then they HAVE to dial back the language. Just twelve hours into the future they were calling for a scary event, and they were calling it as a Sure Thing. Two inches of rain, minimum, with a good chance of three. Damaging winds. Damaging hail. Flooding. It was enough, as I showed, that other "news" outlets declared it to be The News, and not just "the forecast," and put it on the top of their sites, with large "ALERT!" banners. In the event we got... well, nothing. A few showers, for some, but mostly Nothing. How many people didn't go to the doctor (etc.), out of concern? Old people are famous for this kind of thing, and rightly so. Do you want your 80 year old parent driving to the doctor in that kind of weather? So they skipped medical appointments. How many job interviews were postponed or otherwise disrupted? How many business meetings? Calling a soccer game is a nuisance to the family and nowhere near as important as these other things, but even so - how many thousands of people were nuisanced out of concern for the storm? How many left work early? To quote a kindergarten teacher: The NWS, and many other mets, needs to USE THEIR WORDS more effectively. "Chance of T-Storms, some might be severe. 50% chance" That's wishy-washy... but it's also the truth. It's the best they can do. Blame it on model-hugging, blame it on the phase of the moon, blame it on whatever you'd like, but facts are facts: their use of disaster-words is an affront to common decency. Responsible adults don't act this way. That's my beef. Don't scare thousands of people with doom-language unless you are absolutely certain that it's coming. To quote that same kindergarten teacher: "Once upon a time there was a boy named Peter, who called 'WOLF!' when there was no wolf..." These are basic life lessons. The mets need to internalize them. Is this Science, or Pachinko? We're supposed to make large environmental calls based on what these people say? Seriously? It's not a question if intent. I'm sure that nobody wanted to mess things up. All intentions were pure, I'm sure. It's a question of humility, and openly admitting "this ain't as scientific as you are led to believe..." Never forget - at its highest level, Mathematics is considered an Art, not a Science.
  7. You'd become highly unpopular but... how about we add some kind of "score card" here on the site? Just map the major predicted storms, maybe? Accuracy of temperatures and precipitation, maybe wind if it's supposed to be strong? It could be its own thread. Not easy to do, since every person experiences a storm differently. If it's pouring in your yard and just raining in my yard, 10 miles away, which prediction is fairly called a "hit?" Maybe just discussing that would bring value. Just a thought.
  8. Yeah. Now that a few thousand people were spooked, they’ll learn nada. They’ll use the same apocalyptic language next time. Mistakes happen. People are famous for forgiving mistakes. Calling for Doom, if you’re not sure? That’s not a mistake; that’s just irresponsible. People are less forgiving of chronic irresponsibility.
  9. I swear I am not making this up: for the last two summers it has been less an issue of LOSING a shoe, than FINDING a shoe. I've had so much detritus run through my yard, in flood waters, it's hard to believe. I know that someone upstream of me really likes Miller Lite in cans. Lots of those came by. Other beers and sodas, in bottles and cans. Unfortunately a fair amount of glass, too. Quite a few flip-flops and other footwear. A rusted, but still whole, battery box from I'm guessing a tractor. Lots and lots of plastic waste - wrappers and such. Cups from Dunkin Donuts and other vendors of fine cuisine. Even in lovely Bucks County, there are plenty of fools who just toss their stuff on the ground. Sad, but true. I policed it all, of course. Anything I found I gathered it up and threw it away. Wore gloves for the nastier bits... It has been "an adventure" as they say.
  10. Why does this matter? Here. Take a look at the Doylestown "Patch" I get this via email. The email subject was, and I'm cutting and pasting: ALERT: Timing, Latest Forecast For Severe Storms Tuesday In Eastern PA (Tue 11:00:34 AM) Their objective is to get people to click. They base this scare-headline on yesterday's predictions, even though they time stamp it at 1100 today. The trouble is, that's not the 1100 forecast. Philly is no longer predicted to see a truly severe storm. Current rainfall prediction is, max, one inch. Likely half that. Yes, a t-storm, but not End of Times. Not worthy of an email starting with the term "ALERT" in all-caps. The "press" use whatever they can "to sell papers," or the modern equivalent of this. They can defend using information that's less than 24 hours old, even if that information turns out to be wrong. Hey, maybe Philly will get thumped. You never know. Will the readers near D-Town even bother to read past the Subject line and thus presume that they, too, are facing an 'ALERT' worthy event? Some will. The thing is, D-Town is now predicted to see "Showers" today, and "Showers Likely then chance of thunderstorms" for tonight. Not an "ALERT" worthy event, by any means. The Patch won't update their headline or email alert, I'm thinking. Neither will other outlets. People will act on this information, accurate or not.
  11. Sounds like a win for you. Needed rain is always a good thing. Here we've gone from the deluge to normal over these last few weeks. We went over a week without rain, which was fantastic, but now we're seeing a more typical pattern of a few days without rain, now being followed by days that start dry but develop t-storms by the afternoon. Very normal. The severe storms are now being predicted to miss us, but you never know...
  12. Forecasts aren't guarantees. I get it. Predicting the weather is, by default, a risky business. I just posted a longer post on this topic, in the "severe weather" thread. My issue isn't being wrong, per se. It's scaring people before you are sure that they should be warned of impending doom. If you are going to predict 2-3" of rain, damaging hail, very strong winds, etc., then you had better be VERY sure. Otherwise, temper your language. Voice concern, sure, but make it clear that things are still fluid and encourage people to check again as it gets closer. That's wise. That's mature. And the flip side is more important: letting people know that there will be severe weather around, tomorrow, and they should check back to see if what was a Miss for them, is now a Hit. This is the situation, today. The band of damaging storms is now predicted to hit in areas that were too far south... yesterday. Now? They're in the direct hit prediction zone. We'll see what happens.
  13. HAL changed his mind? EPA isn't now facing 2" of rain? We're only facing 0.3"? "Heavier in storms?" Fascinating. I mean, the storm was only 24 hours into the future when HAL told me "all is lost. Prepare to drown." Damaging hail was mentioned. Destructive winds. That's just 24 hours before the predicted storm. Are you SURE that using HAL is the best approach? Without getting too personal allow me to share: Maths are a big part of how I pay my bills. Like Jethro Bodine, I learned to cipher all they way through the sixth grade, and maybe a bit beyond that. I'm pretty comfortable with math... and its limitations. Now the fun thing will be if I get clobbered after all. Now that I'm being told "it's going to mostly miss you, Rob," and it's only something like 4 hours from Commence Firing, wouldn't it be something if I get 2.5" of rain in under an hour, badger-sized hail, and hurricane winds? What should I expect? Should I head home early to fill the tub with water? Should I get home to make sure that the dogs don't go insane in a catastrophe-storm? Or am I cool here, knowing that it's "just a vanilla-sized t-storm?" Which one do I believe - yesterday's forecast, or the current nearly-now-cast? The flip side, of course, is that some people yesterday were told "it will miss you to the north," but now it's trending further south. If they haven't re-checked the forecast, they could get thumped... unprepared. These forecasts matter. People plan important things around them. When we aren't scaring these people, we're under-warning them. It's madness. Curb the catastrophization until you are SURE. Temper the language. "Something's coming, but we're not sure where yet" might gall your pride, but for crying out loud. My wife came home yesterday talking about how many people were talking about Doomsday. Now, presuming that the forecast is now accurate, Peter will have once again cried wolf - for them. I am coining a new term for Peter and the Wolf Disease: "Catastrophe Prediction Fatigue." Who knows... maybe I'll be thumped. Maybe the current "not too bad" cast will revert back to "Take Cover!" in the event. I'll let you know, presuming I survive. ;)
  14. Reminder to all: Perseid's is tonight, and the skies look reasonably clear. Unfortunately, most of the action happens after midnight (double entendre intended). I've got to work in the morning, but I might try and see what's happening at 2200 or thereabouts...
  15. Sorry. I was down the shore last week when a wild storm came through. It ruined that hour, but it didn't ruin the whole day. Hopefully you'll be able to work around it?
×
×
  • Create New...