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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

EstorilM

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    Sterling, VA

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  1. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Gotta watch game of thrones lol.. Aw lame, that showed up in post preview but killed it...
  2. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    You know nothing JonSnow. /GoT Many of us in Northern VA get a decent amount of snow, not a flake with this one. Heavy bands of precip stuck within 25 miles south of me all day. PAINFUL STORM!
  3. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    I don't think I've ever seen a 78 page thread vanish into a ghost town this fast before. It is a big bummer - going to be a few weeks before we get this type of excitement again. Should be a big event for folks in the south, possibly historic for some - especially considering it's pre-Christmas!
  4. EstorilM

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Looks warm for me - anyone want to do a forum ski weekend in WV mountains? Also, I'm pleased with the moisture being depicted so far this season - it's really impressive. If even a fraction of this system comes to fruition, it'll bump DC over the all-time precip record I think?
  5. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Kinda bummed, but I really didn't get my hopes up - there were some fancy snow maps for sure, but realistically speaking there was just nothing in our favor allowing this system to come up north. Now if someone could dig up the stats on some of these killer southern snowstorms the past few years - that would be great. I don't ever remember that "being a thing" a while back. It's so bizarre watching NC and even parts of SC, KY, etc get decent (sometimes impressive) snows the last few years.
  6. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Lurking - I think the vast majority of VA is holding their breath for another 75 miles north shift.
  7. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    I don't think there's that much QPF at play here, maybe a few " for sure but 10?
  8. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    He's got so many now - VA wx risk or whatever it was that posted the HECS thing this morning for Richmond / west areas? lol It's absoluuuuuutely impossible to talk about ratios for a specific area when we don't even know where it's going to be yet. Still - if you're talking about southern locations like Richmond or west of there into western NC, etc.. there's NO WAY you'll see 20:1 - I see no reason why a standard 10:1 wouldn't suffice. There's nothing extraordinary about the temperature profiles with this system - to get those ratios in the south you'd need some extreme stuff happening.
  9. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Glad you found us here! It's too early for that really - the position of the LP will dramatically change the temperature profiles for our areas (and really most of the storm, as it's not particularly far north in any solution I don't think). We also have multiple (totally different) timing ideas on the table as well. Whoever gets this thing late Sun through the night into early Mon will obviously be better off. Once we're near the event you could look at dynamics and cyclogenesis which could alter temp profiles even more - we've seen some showing a negative tilt today which would also help. In other words, no idea about temps yet - those who get the storm will have a ton of variables in play.
  10. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    ..and better location? Wait you mean southwestern NC might not get 60" of snow? Lies..
  11. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Ohhhh.... wouldn't that be something.
  12. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Maybe we can break 3 QB legs in a single month. :(
  13. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    That's not TOO far out for an event of this (potential) magnitude. I actually think many have done a decent job of ignoring the long-range signals for this thing. It's about that time to start focusing on it now. While I don't want it to be a southern storm - impacts would be worse for those regions. DC area is marginal and on the borderline, but clearly within the target zone for the storm still.
  14. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Could be another Richmond crush while everyone north just scratches their heads. Have been many of those the past few years, with historically low snowfall totals for areas north... weird. Eh, I finally have my generator running well after the Nov storm (power out for more than 24hr that evening) once again a day later.. So yeah, icing event is nearly impossible. ;)
  15. EstorilM

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    I like the "sleeper storm" concept here. You can't argue with trends.. it at least deserves some attention.
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