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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

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EstorilM

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    Sterling, VA

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  1. EstorilM
    I never really got my hopes up on this storm, mostly because it's been so busy at work I didn't have a chance to follow it. BUT I did see the winter storm warning for my house in western Loudoun, for 6-8" I believe. I LITERALLY HAD ZERO FLAKES ACCUMULATE. Zero. Even when it was snowing that morning, it was 36 and I knew that sounded a bit warm. It dropped to 33 by 2-3pm but promptly started to rain instead (heavy at times) - I knew that was the "thump" time for the storm, so it was all over at that point. I did think I might get a coating after I went to sleep, but nothing - not a single flake on the cars or grass. This has to go down as one of the biggest forecast busts in the last 10 years or so.
  2. EstorilM

    February 27-28, 2019 | Winter Storm

    EstorilM replied to Storms R’ US's topic in North East | Mid Atlantic

    Certainly looks plenty cold - agreed we probably have to get through the mess(es) for the next few days first.
  3. EstorilM
    Wow brutal dry-slot in northern VA along the track of the entire storm. Looks like ice threat should be completely gone.
  4. EstorilM
    This really seems to be breaking up quickly on radar, wasn't expecting that till later. About an hour and a half with minimal precip now, looks like another band coming in shortly though. Perhaps someone would be kind enough to post HRRR loop? ;)
  5. EstorilM
    FWIW radar showing heavy snow (and I'm only about 4 miles from it lol) - but it's actually heavy sleet, zero snow.
  6. EstorilM
    Man I'm in complete shock at the snowfall rates this morning for Loudoun. EVERY major road was covered. Then again there were multiple VDOT trucks on the median hanging out talking to eachother with 3" packed choppy snow all over the roads. I actually honked at them and they pulled out like 15 seconds behind me lol. 23 miles to work and zero pavement. Just started dumping sleet now.
  7. EstorilM
    Ouch - Sterling NWS just cut their snow maps significantly, highest amounts in the region are generally 4-6" now. They did bump up the ice total maps a bit.
  8. EstorilM
    I think it's a little deceptive showing the "shrinking" snow totals along the apps on the WV/VA border, far northwestern VA, etc. - the QPF isn't really moving, and the surface temps aren't changing much either. It basically looks like warm air aloft cuts in earlier and this is simply becoming more sleet, more freezing rain, and a bit more rain as well.
  9. EstorilM
    That's what NWS Sterling thinks as well.. " A strong area of frontogenetical forcing will move across the area, and a band of moderate to potentially heavy snow is expected across the area Wednesday morning. Localized rates of 1" per hour are possible in this band."
  10. EstorilM
    WOW I leave for a few hours at work and the bulls-eye is shifting back into NoVA big time! :O
  11. EstorilM
    Can someone post NAM total QPF? Is it really a north shift, or are the temp profiles changing again and everything south is suffering. Surprised to see HRRR not really buying it. Then again it also has .2" sleet and .3" freezing rain for me, making me think temps changed a bit. I guess we will all have to start looking at skew-t's soon.
  12. EstorilM
    Beat me to it - yeah they definitely added a lot more information on the storm and their forecast thoughts. They kept me at 6-8 - but changed anything else in the higher areas to 6-8 as well. My personal focus is squarely on the ice though - already lost power multiple times this year - including that Nov storm where we got a few hours of freezing rain after the snow (probably 1/10th" tops) and the second I got a breeze above 2mph you could hear and see transformers blowing in the distance. I'm also in the middle of nowhere with tons of trees though. Either way - the icing potential of this event is exponentially greater than that one was - likely a tad bit more wind as well.
  13. EstorilM
    Sterling still has a median of 6-8" for me in western Loudoun, I'd imagine that's snow - under a winter storm watch as of this morning. Hard to imagine they bust that bad and we get the 1-3" the Euro is showing. I'm with StL on the CAD / geographic features and just don't think the Euro sees what's happening on the eastern side of the apps. It's a CLASSIC feature for this area, and Sterling NWS is VERY familiar it - as it routinely impacts nearly all of their winter forecasts. In these situations for me (locally, with the CAD) the NAM usually does surprisingly well.
  14. EstorilM
    Yeah I'm not the biggest fan. FWIW they do mention sleet like 50 times. ;)
  15. EstorilM
    SREF shows a wild ride for 36hr. That transition to heavy sleet and freezing rain is right around sun down and evening commutes.
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