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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

EstorilM

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    Sterling, VA

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  1. Can someone post NAM total QPF? Is it really a north shift, or are the temp profiles changing again and everything south is suffering. Surprised to see HRRR not really buying it. Then again it also has .2" sleet and .3" freezing rain for me, making me think temps changed a bit. I guess we will all have to start looking at skew-t's soon.
  2. Beat me to it - yeah they definitely added a lot more information on the storm and their forecast thoughts. They kept me at 6-8 - but changed anything else in the higher areas to 6-8 as well. My personal focus is squarely on the ice though - already lost power multiple times this year - including that Nov storm where we got a few hours of freezing rain after the snow (probably 1/10th" tops) and the second I got a breeze above 2mph you could hear and see transformers blowing in the distance. I'm also in the middle of nowhere with tons of trees though. Either way - the icing potential of this event is exponentially greater than that one was - likely a tad bit more wind as well.
  3. Sterling still has a median of 6-8" for me in western Loudoun, I'd imagine that's snow - under a winter storm watch as of this morning. Hard to imagine they bust that bad and we get the 1-3" the Euro is showing. I'm with StL on the CAD / geographic features and just don't think the Euro sees what's happening on the eastern side of the apps. It's a CLASSIC feature for this area, and Sterling NWS is VERY familiar it - as it routinely impacts nearly all of their winter forecasts. In these situations for me (locally, with the CAD) the NAM usually does surprisingly well.
  4. Yeah I'm not the biggest fan. FWIW they do mention sleet like 50 times. ;)
  5. SREF shows a wild ride for 36hr. That transition to heavy sleet and freezing rain is right around sun down and evening commutes.
  6. What is that verbatim, 5am? Eh I don't know, I recall it performing really well for that Nov event where we ended up getting double what most were thinking a few runs earlier. Even then, I think it underestimated that storm (as did everything).
  7. So curious about the few frames following this - I guess we will know this evening. Looks like a SOLID icing event after a TON of sleet.
  8. Only bad thing about these storms is that once the NE is out of the action, the threads die and I lose most of my commentary and maps.
  9. Surprised to wake up to a watch this morning - Sterling isn't messing around. I guess I can't blame them.. 5-8+" snow followed by a significant icing event. Fun times.
  10. Wait a second. I thought I was getting 0.5" of snow for Sat and Sun/Mon. There's maps in here showing 12-16"? This is immediately following this weekend waves? So lost.. NWS also says.. ".LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will build to our northwest on Monday. Northwesterly winds will advect cooler temperatures into the area. Other than a few upslope snow showers along the Allegheny Front, conditions are expected to stay dry."
  11. EstorilM

    February 16-18, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I knew I shouldn't have said anything. Wow the models have been all over the place (more so than normal lol) with this thing. Solution #513 today. From jackpot to 0" haha.
  12. Go ahead and trash this, it has me (the "L-shaped" county - Loudoun) in the bulls-eye lol.
  13. EstorilM

    February 16-18, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Hmmm... watching this one. Sterling Disco - they actually seem unusually optimistic about this one. "On Saturday, as high pressure pushes cold air south across the region from the north, ECMWF still shows a wave of low pressure passing to our south, spreading a swath of snow across our region. GFS remains suppressed with this system, while GGEM is further north than the ECMWF. Given usual biases, this seems the best bet for a significant winter storm (warning level snow) across the metro area, though odds look better west of I-95 where temps should be a little colder."
  14. Was forecast to be about 18 last night in Northern VA (western suburbs) - woke up and PWS said 5 degrees. After a few minutes of driving, my car went down to 2 degrees! The fropa was crazy today, I'm right next to the airport and was listening to IAD air traffic control - heard a United 737 go-around that reported a gain of 25 knots at 600'!!! Many others reported windshear of -15/+20-25 knots as well. Considering I was a good 10 degrees below the forecast low last night, and tonight is supposed to be ~6 degrees, I'm thinking I might see my first below-zero temps in my life (at least, that I can remember!)
  15. EstorilM

    January 29-30, 2019 | Winter Storm

    This is so weird, nearly a white-out here in Northern VA / Sterling at the moment. Just gets heavier and heavier. As I said before - this was fcst. to be rain till about 4ish and it's been snow for two hours. Cars and side roads covered now - also again, no pre-treating because they thought a few hours of rain would wash it off. I guess I respect how well that stuff works for the initial thump lol.
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