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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

MDBlueRidge

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MDBlueRidge last won the day on February 12

MDBlueRidge had the most liked content!

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    MD High Country 1600'-2900' elevation

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  1. Thats because you were a snow plow driver.
  2. Always be skeptical of snow maps. They're terrible. The black circle is the area I know. The output maps are looking closer and closer to the actual impacts from the last event/January events. Where higher spots in the black saw 6-8" of snow ans critical ice damage. (areas above 1400') I'm hopeful but not confident of less ice, more snow. The red circled area is an area I do not know well and am skeptical of that much snow so far north. Is it possible? Of course. As I stated last night, I'm becoming increasingly skeptical in NAM 12k outputs, and would put little faith in them. Something in their algorithmic code has seemingly changed and is not translating well. While for many the 3k NAM overdoes precip it has been pretty good in the black circled area knowing its bias. In addition it has been wonderful for temps and the depiction of the warm nose which has shown over and over again this season. Happy tracking today folks.
  3. Thanks for this. I don't ever wish for others to receive less snow, but what's been really cool this year is they've focused several discussions on the apps and provided great detail in referencing the challenges in forecasting the terrain. Instead of just saying "oh yeah, it snows in the mountains".
  4. I just broke the ice off and re scotch guarded the outdoor couch. She done shines like a diamond
  5. Have noticed this all winter, but there is really a problem with the 12k NAM snowmap depictions based off topography and surface reflection. Snow maps are hot garbage, But using the 12k snowfall output is perilous.
  6. A little better Canadian push then that one. But May be similar results in the MD/WV/southern PA apps. DP's will be low tomorrow before precip, temps will crash quickly as that one did. Pretty wild how many of these we've seen this season, with heavy snow and ice for the mountains with a track West of the apps. Not ready to go all in for the locales I know well, but they should certainly be paying attention. @clindner00 you out there?
  7. Sterling going 8-12" of snow for the mountains with 1/4-1/2" of ice. A bold call. I know I've said it, but quite a barclonic zone going to set up. Weak low, loaded with moisture running into cold air. Fireworks.
  8. Starting to hone in on where barclonic zone sets up. Where the cold/warm firefight will be.
  9. MDBlueRidge

    February 16-18, 2019 | Winter Storm

    29F. With freezing drizzle. Prob 1/10" out there. May get .2". But shouldn't last long tomorrow. Roads are dangerous this evening. Good luck NE crew.
  10. It's impossible to expect a vastly imperfect algorithm to decifer snow output from another imperfect algorithm that is loaded with bugs and biases. I firmly believe that these higher resolution outputs are actually doing a much worse job with actual output. Pretty colors? Yes. Solid info? Nope. Each additional output "goody" you add to a model will get exponentially worse.
  11. Pivotal snow maps are terrible too. Last storm 12k NAM never showed me get more than 1". Got 8". Snow maps are terrible. All of them! That 18z nam output would lay down a hefty amount of snow. Know your area. Not snowmaps!!!!!
  12. Quite a cold air/warm air clash on this one possibly setting up. Baroclinicity in the works. Still a terrible pattern ripe for heavy snow/ice in spots. But I see warm air hope in the long range... What? Folks in here don't want warm air? Ill see myself out.
  13. MDBlueRidge

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    No one is happier than these guys this am. Thank you men. One big branch broke and slammed top of our house. Only some shingle damage. Made the wife and I leave the bedroom quickly. I have petitioned old man winter to end his b.s. sorry friends.
  14. MDBlueRidge

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Last one for awhile as power flickers on and off again. Tonite will be way worse than last night. 30+ mph winds + heavy icing. A limb just banged against the house. I've been thru this so many times. Nothing worse than ice.
  15. MDBlueRidge

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    On a serious note. God bless these lineman working the mountain this evening. Working in terrible, dangerous conditions to bring back power. Which we've now had for a bit. This wind isn't going to stop and the power will keep going out tonite. Theres 4 of their trucks on my road right now. Good men they are. Although, one of them flicked me off, have to imagine it's @KENNYP2339.
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