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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

SNOWBOB11

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    Southern Ontario

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  1. SNOWBOB11

    Winter 2018-2019

    Here’s a look at the EPS and GEFS expected EPO index. You can see there is a drop to negative around the 21st/22nd time frame. That can indicate building heights in the eastern pacific. I’m watching this time for a possible shift to less of a pacific dominated pattern like we are going into to more of a winter like one. Not looking like a massive pattern change but there should be more cold to work with and more systems to track starting around that time.
  2. SNOWBOB11

    Winter 2018-2019

    Here’s some images from the 12z EPS. You can see we get torched in the east in the short range as pacific warmth moves in. Around the 21st there are signs of the pattern shifting a bit to more of a winter look around the lakes. Nothing overly cold but more normal for this time of year. 850 temp anomalys 500 mb heights
  3. SNOWBOB11

    Winter 2018-2019

    Yeah, fairly decent trough in the north west with deeply below avg heights. With that look there shouldn’t be much in the way of cold temps in the east. Take a look at the 12z EPS H85 temp anomalies. Warmth for the majority of the run for central and eastern areas.
  4. SNOWBOB11

    Winter 2018-2019

    EPS advertising west coast trough central and eastern ridge in the medium range. Not until you get to the end of the run does ridging start to build back out west with downstream lower heights.
  5. SNOWBOB11

    Winter 2018-2019

    Got a quick hitting 5 cm from a squall that developed east of the GTA. Not sure it reached toronto area. Good to see some snow again.
  6. SNOWBOB11

    Winter 2018-2019

    EPS not really showing any sustained cold into the long range. Basically just quick moving troughs and ridges following the wave train. Some shortwave disturbances to keep an eye on but nothing to be sure about just yet. Looks like the slow start to winter for the lakes will continue for the next while.
  7. SNOWBOB11

    December 6-7, 2018 | Newfoundland Winter Storm

    Definitely looks like a solid storm for eastern newfoundland. There used to be a member from accuweather that was from there but I don’t think they’ve made it here yet.
  8. SNOWBOB11

    Winter 2018-2019

    I’d expect a warm up during this time as milder air moves in from the west. This too could be for a short time before things cool back down.
  9. SNOWBOB11

    Winter 2018-2019

    Looks like a shift from the ridge west trough east pattern before mid month. EPS showing this on the latest run. Here’s a couple images.
  10. SNOWBOB11

    Winter 2018-2019

    LR GFS showing that december 4-5th system as snow for the lower lakes. The system itself has consistently been on most models for several days now. It’s gradually been shown further south for the last few runs. If it’s shown tomorrow I think a thread should be started. Pattern looks favourable during this time so it’s no surprise a storm is on the models.
  11. SNOWBOB11

    November 27 Lake-Effect Snow

    GTA could get a few cm as well.
  12. SNOWBOB11

    November 27 Lake-Effect Snow

    Looks like areas around the west end of Lake Ontario could get some accumulations from the rap around and some lake enhancement. St. Catharines area could be in line for 10 or more cm.
  13. SNOWBOB11

    November 27 Lake-Effect Snow

    Looks like by Thursday winds will ease off as another smaller system begins to track in. Most of the squalls should be done by then but there still could be some flurries.
  14. SNOWBOB11

    Winter 2018-2019

    Yeah, I like that December 4th-12th time period for the potential of a couple systems to move through. There should be enough cold air with how the pattern is shaping up.
  15. SNOWBOB11

    November 27 Lake-Effect Snow

    It looks like the winds will initially be coming out of the NE as the low pressure system raps around a bit. Winds should gradually shift to the NW as the temperature drops and the squalls start developing. I’d say from Wiarton area down to as far as London and east to north of Guelph should be in for the most accumulations while areas further east will see lesser amounts. Barrie area should get some snow out of this but I’m thinking they will see less than areas further west. Looks like a general 10-20cm possible for the snow squall areas.
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