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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

SNOWBOB11

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    Southern Ontario

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  1. SNOWBOB11

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    Good to see the HRRR showing higher totals. It’s been solid this winter. Looks like there’s a good chance at lake enhancement for the west end of lake ontario. Good chance at a quick 10+ cm for someone if some squalls can fire up.
  2. SNOWBOB11

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    18z GFS came a bit NW. 5+ cm for SW ON. A bit less for the GTA. NAM continues to be the most NW with the precip shield.
  3. SNOWBOB11

    February 17th-18th Winter Storm

    Yeah, most models have several threats in the medium and long range. Hopefully they play out on the snowy side for our area. Always a risk of mixing with the south east ridge involved but at this point in the winter I’d rather go big or go home.
  4. There is the chance a system running just south of S ON could creep north far enough to impact the region. Right now most models show the system just grazing Ontario but the last few runs of the NAM track the system further north giving areas in S ON as much as 10 cm of snow. It’s possible the system does end up tracking too far south for Ontario but also possible the NAM is accurate. We will have to see what the HRRR shows when it’s fully in range as it’s done a good job with these mesoscale events this winter. Here’s the latest 12k NAM 3k NAM
  5. SNOWBOB11

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Not really sure where to post this and not sure if it’s been posted already but I came across this site that has free euro maps. Precip and snowfall. It’s a little odd that the snow on the precip map is in green but it’s free so what can you do. For anyone interested. https://www.theweather.net/models/eu-united+states-ecmwf-103.htm
  6. SNOWBOB11

    February 12th-14th Winter Storm

    Completely unrelated to this storm but I came across this site that has free euro model precip maps as well as snowfall map. It’s a little odd that the precip maps show snow in green but for free it will do. For anyone interested here it is. https://www.theweather.net/models/eu-united+states-ecmwf-103.htm
  7. SNOWBOB11

    February 12th-14th Winter Storm

    I don’t know how Toronto itself did with the backend snow last night but here in Whitby we got the heaviest snows from the system after it changed back to snow from ice pellets. Added up another 7-8 cm from what we got before from the snow and ice pellets accumulation. Storm total for my area so far is between 16-18 cm which is not bad at all. I say so far because we are getting some heavy snow right now and on and off this morning from some lingering bands. Right now it’s accumulating fast out there.
  8. SNOWBOB11

    February 12th-14th Winter Storm

    Good stuff. Hope you get the totals models are advertising. Should be a good storm for you by the time it finally moves out.
  9. SNOWBOB11

    February 12th-14th Winter Storm

    Very heavy snow coming down now. The backend snow is real.
  10. SNOWBOB11

    February 12th-14th Winter Storm

    Switch to ice pellets happening quicker than expected. This should cut down on total accumulations before the switch back to snow later.
  11. SNOWBOB11

    February 12th-14th Winter Storm

    Some 36 dbz bands around Toronto right now. Should see some times of heavy snows and blizzard like conditions with the strong winds.
  12. SNOWBOB11

    February 12th-14th Winter Storm

    Looks like you will get some heavy snows from the onset of the system moving in. As the warm air moves in you should see a change over in precip type to ice pellets and freezing rain then eventually rain. Here’s some maps. 00z euro 06z RGEM 06z GFS snowfall map It would seem that the GFS/RGEM have more total snowfall for you than the euro. All do have the eventual change over in precip type.
  13. SNOWBOB11

    February 12th-14th Winter Storm

    I hate to say this but this type of a system can often be a disappointment for areas to the SW of Toronto. I think Hamilton and to the SW has a chance at seeing significantly less total snowfall and more PL as the warm air aloft moves in. I definitely could be wrong but for anyone SW of the GTA I’d be concerned about lesser accumulations. Not that you won’t see anything but not as much snow as to the NE.
  14. SNOWBOB11

    February 12th-14th Winter Storm

    It’s strange that the GFS lowered totals. Especially since it’s been consistent with the higher amounts. It seems to be the only model with such a sudden drop in expected snow totals so I think it might be off with the last couple runs.
  15. SNOWBOB11

    February 12th-14th Winter Storm

    There should be some super heavy snowfall rates for the GTA tomorrow as the system tracks in. Should be fun.
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