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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook

ClicheVortex2014

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Everything posted by ClicheVortex2014

  1. ClicheVortex2014

    April 27-May 1(?) | Storms

    A look at the possibilities we're dealing with
  2. ClicheVortex2014

    April 27-May 1(?) | Storms

    Synoptic setup for this period looks very May-esque. At least 2 systems will develop and ride along the stationary front that's centered around latitude 40N. The general pattern supports general storminess in the Midwest. There'll likely be more concentrated severe weather regions but there's no way to confidently determine that right now. This'll be created by 3 possibilities: dryline, cold front passage, and outflow boundaries. Once details become clearer, this thread will be changed and maybe more threads will be created based on the evolution. CPC has storminess from April 30-May 6 for the eastern Midwest. Severe weather climatology of these events is from Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and east into the OV. GEFS analogs reflects this pretty well.
  3. ClicheVortex2014

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Usually when a new season starts we create a thread for the next season... so here we go. The 2018 fall tornado season has been well above average for the first time since 2013. 2013 is also the latest and closest match to TNI (Trans-Nino Index, which is found to be one of the best indicators of seasonal tornado prediction) trends observed this year. That trend being moderately negative to start the year, strongly negative in the middle, and trending back down to moderately negative to end the year. However, 2013-14 was a cool-neutral ENSO event, so that is a significant difference. However, if we're to follow the TNI trend, then we can expect the TNI to continue to trend to a weaker negative value through the beginning of 2019, approaching 0 by late summer. Something that throws a wrench into the whole equation is that this Nino is expected to persist beyond when it's climatologically favored to weaken. JAMSTEC and CFS are split about what happens from spring into summer. JAMSTEC cools it to warm-neutral, CFS keeps it at weak to moderate Nino. If we're to follow the TNI trend, then 2019 should have more tornadoes than 2018 just like 2014 had more than 2013. Other than that, the PDO has been hovering near neutral for a year or so. Unless the train of systems slamming the west coast stops via a persistent western ridge, I don't see that changing much. One thing I think we can count on is a strong STJ, as has been the case so far this cold season. This would favor severe weather in Texas and Dixie alley more than traditional tornado alley due to a more southern storm track. However, we have seen a significant tornado outbreak in Illinois in December which produced what's likely the strongest December tornado at or above that latitude, so there is evidence that Dixie alley won't steal the show completely. If the southern storm track can continue to be active into the spring then I can see some periodically active severe weather. JAMSTEC shows hints of a southeastern ridge. Although there's cool anomalies in the extreme southeast US, these anomalies coincide with very high precip anomalies... so it's probably just anomalies induced by wet soil. The western US, on the other hand, looks quite active and trough-y. Not what I'd expect from a Nino, but they don't always play by the rules. On the other hand, JAMSTEC can be bad at times.
  4. ClicheVortex2014

    April 29-May ? | Warmth

    GFS and Euro are showing a preview of summer with a robust SE ridge with dew points in the upper 60's and potentially getting up to the low 70's. I was anticipating something like this with the +SOI spike earlier this month. Looks like a stationary front will exist throughout this subforum, so not everyone will get in on this warmth. This stationary front may get pushed around a bit throughout this period but at least some of this subforum will remain south of the front. Naturally, with it being in the heart of tornado season, severe storm potential will certainly be worth watching... especially with such rich dew points. However at this point, there's no agreement regarding specific severe weather threats. Areas in the vicinity of the stationary front will be worth watching, as well as whenever this period of warmth ends with a cold front. But this thread will be about the early season warmth. Storm thread(s) will come later.
  5. ClicheVortex2014

    April 29-May ? | Warmth

    Probably won't reach 80 degrees this April because the warmth won't make its way into your area until we flip the calendar. But if a trough moves east in May and pumps the ridge more, you might reach 80 in early May.
  6. ClicheVortex2014

    April 29-May ? | Warmth

    GFS and Euro do have a sort of ring of fire signal. It's pretty far out still though. Most of the precip from Texas northeast through Arkansas comes before the ring of fire-like setup. GFS is most pronounced.
  7. ClicheVortex2014

    April 29-May ? | Warmth

    I assume you mean precip for central IL? If so, this far out I'd say there'll be a chance for storms for central IL from April 29 and for a week after that (don't know when the chance will end yet). It all depends on where the stationary front sets up.
  8. ClicheVortex2014

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Pretty short downtime for severe weather. Last few days of April into early May is looking really warm and active. We had a big lull for about 3 weeks in the second half of March into early April, yet after the past 2 weeks we're nearly at average tornado count again. 2016-18 isn't included in the below graph, but I checked the data and only 2017 is ahead of where we're at now.
  9. An EF3 has been confirmed in Virginia. Up to 33 tornado reports after the first day of damaging surveying with 14 damaging wind reports still tagged with possible tornado. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_17–19,_2019
  10. ClicheVortex2014

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    This relative lull in severe weather looks pretty short-lived. Whole range of severe weather possibilities in 7-10 days.
  11. ClicheVortex2014

    April 18-22, 2019 | Damp and Dreary Holiday Weekend

    No secret how the storms in western PA formed. Westerly winds meeting with southerly winds. They should be pretty good small hail producers.
  12. ClicheVortex2014

    Hurricane Michael upgraded to Category 5 posthumously

    Re-sharing this because now it's the first high-resolution, minute-refreshing satellite loop of a US landfalling category 5 hurricane. This satellite will probably be out of date in 10-20 years, but we may not have another category 5 US landfall for longer than that.
  13. ClicheVortex2014

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    It's certainly been an active 10 days. Currently no specific severe weather threats but something might show up. MJO just came back to life in phase 2. It's forecast to stay nearly stationary and strengthen for a week. I'm thinking we might get something in 7-10 days because of the MJO and the huge SOI rise/crash a week ago. Watching early May for something.
  14. ClicheVortex2014

    April 19-21 Storm

    Rain is just getting dumped on western KY
  15. It happens but it's quite rare. Seems PA averages 2 or 3 per April.
  16. ClicheVortex2014

    Hurricane Michael upgraded to Category 5 posthumously

    The second category 5 to be captured with modern radar technology, Irma being the first. Although Irma knocked out the radar in Puerto Rico but that still counts I guess. Anyway I thought I had more GR2 images of it but I guess not. At least I screenshotted the one that really counts I guess. I had my program set to de-alias the velocity but I guess the algorithm wasn't made for winds that strong.
  17. ClicheVortex2014

    April 18, 2019 | Severe Weather

    That area of tornadoes was small but man did it produce.
  18. As mentioned in the April 12-15 storm thread, there's another potential severe weather outbreak in the middle of this week starting in the southern Plains and moving through the southern US. I'm not particularly impressed with the setup for tomorrow (Wednesday) in the southern Plains because the wind profiles look pretty sloppy. However, the setup appears to become more favorable for tornadoes the next day further east. I'm thinking the supercell tornado threat will be maximized in eastern LA and southern MS with cells that pop ahead of a developing squall. Damaging wind potential with the squall, including potential squall tornadoes, covers the entire states of Mississippi and Alabama. SREF appears to agree with this. SPC updated their day 3 outlook this afternoon to include an enhanced risk for this region. I think I've seen this happen before but it's rare. NAM
  19. ClicheVortex2014

    April 18, 2019 | Severe Weather

    Bit of a rough verification for SPC but it's really not their fault. The 45% wind was further south, parallel to the Gulf coast. The MCV really focused damaging winds/tornadoes further north. Still the entire enhanced risk area saw severe weather though so even with that thrown in there it wasn't bad.
  20. ClicheVortex2014

    April 19-21 Storm

    Cool 3d image of the forced line of storms in Kentucky
  21. ClicheVortex2014

    April 19-21 Storm

    Got that nearly stationary rain in central Ohio. My car was already freaking me out because it's been feeling weird since I got the flat tire (no, it's not because I still have the flat tire)... anyway I hit that rain and definitely noticed there was some stronger winds with it because the car started feeling even more weird. The most nervous I've felt driving in the rain... and it was stratiform rain.
  22. That was a lot of tornadic supercells... wow. At least a dozen more tornadoes are going to be found in damage surveys. As of right now, 12 damaging wind reports are tagged with possible tornado.
  23. ClicheVortex2014

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Nowhere else to put this since this happened in the Accuweather days, but Hurricane Michael has been determined to be a Category 5 at landfall after the damage has been surveyed. This makes it only the 4th hurricane to make landfall in the US as a Category 5. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/hurricane-michael-upgraded-to-category-5-at-time-of-us-landfall The other 3 are the 1935 Hurricane (unnamed), Camille in 1969, and Andrew in 1992. So, yes, this puts an end to a generation that has never seen a Category 5 landfall in their lifetime... and that includes me. This was also the most intense hurricane to be viewed with modern technology and social media. Minutely updating satellites, dual-pol, and even velocity radar was not a thing in those previous hurricanes. We have viewed other category 5s with modern radar but those radars were not on US main land and therefore not as good.
  24. ClicheVortex2014

    April 18, 2019 | Severe Weather

    No active tornado warnings for the first time in several hours, but there are still some areas of rotation that need to be watched. Currently at 6 tornado reports and 6 damaging wind reports marked as possible tornado.
  25. ClicheVortex2014

    April 18, 2019 | Severe Weather

    A tornado just dropped on Morton, MS and produced a debris signature. This was 2 scans ago and the debris signature has only gotten bigger.
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