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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

ClicheVortex2014

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Everything posted by ClicheVortex2014

  1. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    Wow, I'm really surprised they brought the threat area so far south. Definitely don't agree with that. Most of the area that was in the day 3 enhanced is now in marginal. I would stretch the enhanced risk north into southern IL. They mention NAM not being as aggressive... but here's a NAM sounding on the border of IL/KY. This is in the marginal risk. Western IN... yeah, nasty VBV... but that's still some instability (and an area of strong instability) with a very strong wind field. 50 knots 3200 feet above ground, 100 knots at 500mb. This is on the edge of the marginal risk.
  2. I've been monitoring this time period for a few days and when SPC goes in, I'll go in. This thread will be for the severe weather south of Missouri... if a greater severe threat evolves north of that, it'll go in the OV section. This is looking like your typical early season severe event. The trough goes negative tilt in the southern Plains with a strong dryline in Texas. There'll be strong speed and directional shear, but as always, the amount of instability is in question. Again, as always, GFS has less than Euro. As always, I'll lean more to Euro. Expecting some window for supercells with initial development... especially with the dryline... then eventually forming into a squall. Due to the nature of this system, really wouldn't be surprised to see the squall push east overnight into the OV and/or the Tennessee valley. Embedded tornadoes in the squall will be a persistent threat at least with the day 6 event.
  3. I agree. Always had a widespread wind damage event feel. The biggest challenge is forecasting tornado activity... well, you know, bigger than usual. Obviously squall line tornadoes are nearly impossible to predict outside of saying they're favored, but the presence of pre-frontal supercell(s) is almost as hard to predict.
  4. Enhanced risk shrunk considerably.
  5. Yeah they're implying there'll be a squall line that could produce tornadoes. Squalls produce weak and short lived tornadoes. I'm not aware of any EF3+ squall line/"non-supercell" tornadoes. If one has happened, it's an exceptional anomaly. It's due of the nature of squalls... their outflow is so strong that it doesn't allow enough time for an updraft to become well established. With that said though, when there's very strong wind shear, there can be numerous spinups along a squall. The outflow can meet up with warm, moist winds that are perpendicular to it and can create tornadoes very quick. Usually it goes from nothing to peak intensity in 20-30 seconds, and sometimes that peak is 100-110 MPH winds. Because they spin up and dissipate so quickly, it's a big challenge to put warnings on them. That's the type of squall line that they're expecting. There's also a threat for supercells ahead of the squall, which if they do form (extremely hard to predict), can produce strong and/or long-lived tornadoes. Due to the very strong winds aloft, storms are expected to race along.
  6. ClicheVortex2014

    Spring 2019 | Outlooks and Discussions

    Usually when a new season starts we create a thread for the next season... so here we go. The 2018 fall tornado season has been well above average for the first time since 2013. 2013 is also the latest and closest match to TNI (Trans-Nino Index, which is found to be one of the best indicators of seasonal tornado prediction) trends observed this year. That trend being moderately negative to start the year, strongly negative in the middle, and trending back down to moderately negative to end the year. However, 2013-14 was a cool-neutral ENSO event, so that is a significant difference. However, if we're to follow the TNI trend, then we can expect the TNI to continue to trend to a weaker negative value through the beginning of 2019, approaching 0 by late summer. Something that throws a wrench into the whole equation is that this Nino is expected to persist beyond when it's climatologically favored to weaken. JAMSTEC and CFS are split about what happens from spring into summer. JAMSTEC cools it to warm-neutral, CFS keeps it at weak to moderate Nino. If we're to follow the TNI trend, then 2019 should have more tornadoes than 2018 just like 2014 had more than 2013. Other than that, the PDO has been hovering near neutral for a year or so. Unless the train of systems slamming the west coast stops via a persistent western ridge, I don't see that changing much. One thing I think we can count on is a strong STJ, as has been the case so far this cold season. This would favor severe weather in Texas and Dixie alley more than traditional tornado alley due to a more southern storm track. However, we have seen a significant tornado outbreak in Illinois in December which produced what's likely the strongest December tornado at or above that latitude, so there is evidence that Dixie alley won't steal the show completely. If the southern storm track can continue to be active into the spring then I can see some periodically active severe weather. JAMSTEC shows hints of a southeastern ridge. Although there's cool anomalies in the extreme southeast US, these anomalies coincide with very high precip anomalies... so it's probably just anomalies induced by wet soil. The western US, on the other hand, looks quite active and trough-y. Not what I'd expect from a Nino, but they don't always play by the rules. On the other hand, JAMSTEC can be bad at times.
  7. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    Padcah had another good AFD. Stepping up the wording. They brought up some similarities to 3/1/17. In case you forgot, this is what it looked like. From purely a Meteorological perspective, that was my favorite event in a while. Very destructive and deadly, but a very interesting event. 3-4 days out it appeared to be targeting further south like Arkansas and Mississippi and even up being a moderate risk for tornadoes in the Ohio Valley. This event will be centered further south than that and be much more of a linear event. ILN seems to be on board with severe weather
  8. Euro is picking up on potentially Hurricane force wind gusts associated with the cold front. I'm not sure if these gusts seen here are convectively influenced, or if it's just associated with the front. Either way... nasty. Also notice how the pressure drops 8mb in 6 hours... exceeding the pace needed to achieve 24-hour bombogenesis.
  9. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    Wind gusts at the approximate time of frontal passage through Ohio has the west half of Ohio and Indiana in 40-50 knots (46-57 MPH)... hence why it's said you really don't need much to get damaging winds in this case, exacerbated by the extremely saturated soil.
  10. There we go. There's the NAM that we all know and love Southern AR NW MS It's been showing weird reflectivity... maybe the nature of the event being low-topped? Regardless, looks like it's showing some pre-frontal convection. 
  11. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    3km NAM showing a broken line breaking up in the evening. Not sure I believe that with a rapidly deepening low and a strong cold front.
  12. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    There we go. There's the NAM that we all know and love SE MO... yikes Western KY It's been showing weird reflectivity... maybe the nature of the event being low-topped? Regardless, looks like it's showing some pre-frontal convection.
  13. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    It's good to not expect anything, but that's certainly enough for a low-topped squall. Louisville and Wilmington had some good morning AFDs. Louisville made a beautiful text block. Someone got bored. ILN
  14. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    Something must've went wrong on 00z NAM. The wind shift with the cold front somehow outruns the temp gradient. GFS still looks good though. I'm thinking at least a strongly worded slight risk from the northern half of Mississippi to Kentucky. Might go for enhanced since there's no chance for unexpected cloud cover. Southern IL Western Ohio at 1AM
  15. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    Decently high for this far out. Keep in mind this only has meaning if supercells exists there.
  16. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    9 of 15 GFS-based analogs have widespread severe weather. I counted analogs 7 and 10 because they're from the 80's and it was a low-end tornado outbreak and I'm taking into consideration that they likely produced more severe weather than reported. Of the remaining 6 analogs, 4 produced little to no severe weather.
  17. 9 of 15 GFS-based analogs have widespread severe weather. I counted analogs 7 and 10 because they're from the 80's and it was a low-end tornado outbreak and I'm taking into consideration that they likely produced more severe weather than reported. Of the remaining 6 analogs, 4 produced little to no severe weather.
  18. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    Some good AFDs in the OV... in the south, not so much. Common theme here is the extremely wet soil will make wind damage more likely Paducah Louisville ILN
  19. NWS offices have been launching weather balloons in the south at 18z and 06z since yesterday. They rarely do this but they usually do it before an impactful/significant system. They're doing it in this case so they can get data on the system impacting us now because what happens with this system will impact Saturday's system.
  20. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    NWS offices have been launching weather balloons in the south at 18z and 06z since yesterday. They rarely do this but they usually do it before an impactful/significant system. They're doing it in this case so they can get data on the system impacting us now because what happens with this system will impact Saturday's system.
  21. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    Something interesting showing up on NAM... showing a layer of strong instability from 0-3km above ground. This is entirely being missed by GFS. The area in question is SE IL/SW IN. NAM GFS 3 hours later, this layer is seen in eastern Indiana. The cause for this layer is the negative tilt. I think NAM would be the model to trust in this area since it literally has mesoscale in its name. But I guess we'll have to wait and see.
  22. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    Not to mention we have a beautiful negative tilt right now, too. Two in one week.
  23. ClicheVortex2014

    February 23rd Severe Weather

    I figured, especially since you said you're a storm chaser. This clearly isn't one of those high-end tornado events with hours-long cloud breaks. That's not to minimize the severity of this event because as I said before this has all the feels of a widespread damaging wind event with potential for a good number of embedded weak tornadoes, maybe some supercells in and/or ahead of the line.
  24. I'm making a sort of guide to severe weather in my free time... so far got soundings and hodographs covered but now I got the fun stuff to do. Just need more free time.
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