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risingriver

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    South of DC, north of Richmond, with I95 in my front yard.

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  1. Is it me, or does Barry seem to be leaving a big chunk of his deep convection behind?
  2. Been expecting a shift south in the low level center for some time. Usually typical in systems before they get this developed, but the coc can always jump to the densest cloud cover early in a systems growth. Maybe the shear let up some as forecasted or it just relocated because the mid level center pulled the low level south. Also possible the flow around one of those circulating meso vortexes helped push the main COC south. That can happen too. A vertically stacked system is not what we want. Makes it more efficient. Still thinking rain is the biggest story with Barry. A friend was at a sorority convention in NO, and the mayor asked them to cut it short. That meant 20,000 ladies scrambling to get flights out. She said it was crazy
  3. Getting stronger while the shear still has him laying down on the job, so to speak. Louisiana is lucky the shear has had this much impact, but they aren't out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination. Barry was always going to be about the rainfall and flooding and not the winds, developing that close to the coastline.
  4. Barry is a scrambled mess so far. Offshore flow wrecking havoc with his upper level structure. Not unexpected to this point, but there are hints the favorable window might be smaller than thought yesterday. I noticed the NHC forecast doesn't get him to hurricane strength anymore before landfall. Theoretically still possible over water that warm, but shear seems to be winning the battle so far.
  5. That shot also shows some northerly shear, especially over the eastern half of the circulation. I can also see a couple smaller circulations south of the LA coast in the lower levels, though the main CoC does seem to be under that denser area of clouds SE of LA. Given the shear, no surprise that most of the convection is south and east of any "center" right now. But that northerly component to the upper winds is forecast to slack off as the system moves westward, though the IR satellite shot posted a page or two back showed a strong North to South motion to the thunderstorms over Oklahoma and central Texas today. Not sure if those are connected to the trough progged to pass through the Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic tomorrow or not. If so, might be a sign that trough swings south enough to pull Barry north into Louisiana as the models have trended today, though I wouldn't say eastern Texas is 100% out of the woods yet.
  6. Probably not gonna get to CAT 4. A better comparison might be Allison or Alberto, which were prolific rain producers, but not even hurricanes. Of course, I never thought Michael last year was going to go major hurricane, so what do I know. I know if I was in New Orleans and was able to get out of town now, I would be doing so. The storm may track close enough to the coast that outer band impacts could make the days before landfall dicey for getting out of dodge closer to Barry coming onshore.
  7. I wouldn't throw the RI into the mix yet, but there will be improving upper level conditions as the storm moves west. Have to wait and see how much Barry can take advantage of that window and strengthen. Initial thoughts here are that it will be a ragged mess today, but slowly organize. If center forms and tracks closer to the coast, weaker system that the Thursday trough progression across the eastern US may pull onto the coast in Louisiana. If the center forms further out in the Gulf, and if the trough misses a connection by not being as deep, it could slip underneath the trough influence and continue more west, which would give it more time over warm waters to strengthen. And it looks like upper level conditions improve as the week goes on. So the west trend on the model runs this morning are not surprising. It could well wind up tracking further west than forecasts now think. I wouldn't think I was out of the woods already anywhere along the western Gulf Coast.
  8. Well stated. Those conflicting winds at different levels may be enough shear to tamp down development somewhat. Anyone got a shear map of the Gulf for the rest of the week? As has already been stated, this is all pregame chatter until an actual low level circulation can form over the Gulf. Where is forms and how long the track stays over water seem the biggest variables to strength right now. One thing we can definitely say this early in the process is that SSTs will not be an issue.
  9. Never been called a hard core tropical poster before. I'm checking the sarcasm meter??? I'm just a guy who drinks and is fascinated by tropical systems. Jargon smargon. :)
  10. Keys to watch through Wednesday. 1. Where do the LLC and MLC go. How far south into the gulf does the LLC get and where does the convection flare. Obviously the closer the two LP areas are, the more likely they can stack and allow for faster development. 2. How robust does the convection get Tues/Wed.? The more we see the more likely this takes off. Lots of convection could assist the mid and low level circulation centers in co locating, which is what the system will need to do for development to create a strong tropical storm or even low level hurricane. That said, with water temps that warm in the Gulf, there sure won't be a shortage of fuel for this thing to tap if the structures align to allow for development.
  11. Hate to say it, but a storm level event might not be such a bad thing with SST that warm. Long term could certainly use something to pull some heat out of those waters in case a system like Matthew comes along later in the season. Can you imagine if he had had water that warm under him last year?
  12. Did anyone else see this image? Not every day you get a major hurricane and a solar eclipse in the same satellite loop.
  13. I see the GFS has developed a warm bias. Not gonna break 100 in VA today or tomorrow.
  14. Amazing thread to read after the fact. Love the play by play. Very thankful for so few fatalities and injuries in a busy 2 weeks. Even had a warning IMBY in Virginia, but nothing was ever confirmed by NWS in damage surveys.
  15. Areas of the 757 in Virginia (Chesapeake, Hannover County, and a couple other places) have observed 3-6+ inches of rain today thanks to that stalled ULLP and a stationary front. Amazing that 39 miles south of me received 6 inches of rain, and MBY was less than .1 of an inch in a couple spritzes during the day.
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