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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

risingriver

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    South of DC, north of Richmond, with I95 in my front yard.

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  1. risingriver

    February 16-18, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Sterling and Blacksburg WFO have issued WWA for ice accumulations in the southern Blue Ridge and Shenandoah Valley. NAM 12K consistently showing freezing rain accumulations for those areas tomorrow morning. No precip issues in other places. WAA is scouring out the cold too fast for the rest of the state, though it wouldn't surprise me if these advisories are extended north in the valley.
  2. Not unexpected given the impacts of climate change tilting the field to favor warmer and wetter extremes of weather. I've never seen so many misses between northern and southern stream energy as I have this year though.
  3. Temps have been somewhat marginal almost all winter. Heck, the winter has been marginal, but MD & DC are still on track for an average snowfall winter measuring at Dulles. Baltimore and places in northern MD did reasonably well Sun-Tues this week until the warm air flooding in changed everything to rain. Fredvegas did well two weeks on either side of Christmas with a pair of decent snows. Not so much since, and the cold air failed us almost completely this week. I am worried that is the pattern as the storm track moves more north as the days get longer.
  4. Just some friendly advice to folks who seem to be hanging on every run of every model. Don't. Think about it. So far this year, none of the models have been very good more than a couple days out from the event. Heck, in some ways I wish we hadn't "improved" them. I used to be able to use their known biases to interpret the output, but these days it seems harder to do. And lord help anyone trying to use the FV-3, which seems almost programmed for inconsistent output. :) The models are really struggling with the split flow regime in the Pacific, and small changes from run to run are driving some posters into lala land in frustration trying to keep up. Just be happy there is a storm signal, albeit not a strong one as measured by past President's Day events. It doesn't seem to be a year with a pattern condusive to big East Coast storms. Not every winter is 2009-10. But it only takes one. If I remember correctly the 1993 Superstorm and 1996 Storm of the Century were not in winters that were particularly severe snow producers outside of those events, although 1996 did have two 100 year floods for the Potomac watershed and other parts of Virginina within a few months of each other, one caused by rain on top of a heavy snowpack. Unpack, track, and enjoy the ride. The last two weeks of the snowiest part of an East Coast winter appear to be primed for busy model output.
  5. Not interested in a front end thump that washes away. Models should not be trusted with this with 2 preview systems in the way. I will be skeptically following along, given how the last modeled and warned freezing rain situation failed to materialize in my part of the mid-Atlantic. Maybe this year is one where President's Day can work its magic like in a few past winters.
  6. risingriver

    February 10-11, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Snow hole over DC closing in. Mostly virga but a few flakes futilely making their way to the ground to melt in the 37 degree air. Saturating the column and cooling things for the sleet and freezing rain to come.
  7. risingriver

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Crackhead at hour 84 on the NAM is probably the correct meteorological term. Was originally thinking southern NOVA would see more frozen precip Tuesday morning with the stronger set up visa vi Monday, but now we may get a little sleet or freezing rain overnight Sunday, possibly changing to rain before rush hour along I95. I81 and north of I66 look to get slick and maybe treacherous before afternoon rains. I'm rooting for a strong enough high pressure to funnel and damn cold air up against the Appalachians again on Monday night, but at this point Sterling is not confident that will happen this far south. NW of DC is a different story. Gonna have to go check my SREF output and look for trends.
  8. risingriver

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Thought Maryland was the first and only sate to tax the rain?
  9. risingriver

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Wondering at this point if the models are overdoing or underdoing the strength of the cold air that will east of the mountains. If the track is indeed a cutter, bad juju for the rest of the month. Winter isn't over, heck if you believe HBO it doesn't start until April this year anyway, but the furry varmit in Puxitauny may wind up correct for once. Off topic, but trying to consider how the track of this storm primes the atmosphere for storm #2 a few days later.
  10. risingriver

    February 1-2, 2019 | Snow Event

    Just like we rarely get significant back end snows as the cold air filters in. Last night was overdone by some, though NWS did correctly remove Spotsylvania from the WWA they had for the I95 corridor, which was actually as much about the rush hour timing as the amounts. Takes very little rush hour precip to create havoc here on a biblical scale. Would be nice to see snow on Friday, but not expecting anything but a few flurries at most in Virginia. There isn't even a red letter L on the models for a center for the clipper. Looks to be all orographically driven precip to me. We are on the dry side of the Apps for that kind of snow. Looking long range though, I may be looking back on this week as the last two best opportunities of the coldest part of winter. Pushing 60 by Tuesday? Just what kind of arctic outbreak is this anyway?
  11. risingriver

    January 29-30, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Not looking good south of DC. Drizzle and a temp of 41, but snowing basically west of a line along US RT 29 from Charlottesville to the DC burbs. WWA dropped for Stafford and Spotsylvania Counties, as well as the city of Fredericksburg, but our kids got an early dismissal day anyway. Unfortunately teachers are expected to stay until 2 PM even though policy says we leave when the kids do on weather dismissals. Big hoo ha has ensued. Bigger story here will be the cold temps post front. If we do get even a sliver of snow, it will stick to roads and freeze up tonight it looks like. Wind chills will likely result in weather delayed openings tomorrow and Thursday.
  12. risingriver

    January 29-30, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Cold air chasing moisture type snowfalls are the Virginia equivalent of a dog chasing a car. Almost never catches the thing, and if it does, has no clue what to do with it. That style setup rarely delivers in my part of the mid-Atlantic. We need the cold air in place before the moisture arrives.
  13. 26 with windchill of 14. Not impressed yet in Central Virginia, but the temperature is not done dropping. Does appear it's a here today, gone tomorrow shot though, as Tuesday rebounds to a high around 50. Wish the cold would stay long enough for the next storm to be frozen. Looks like the split flow and warmth from El Nino will keep dominating the weather for a while longer. But at least we still have February.
  14. risingriver

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    All this talk of low cuts and observing some warm tongue has me wondering exactly what kind of website this place is.
  15. risingriver

    January 19-21, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Don't they usually get plastered? Oh, you meant with snow. I'll be here all weekend.
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