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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

risingriver

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  1. risingriver

    December 22-25, 2018 | Christmas Potential

    It'll be all about timing the moisture and the cold air. Always has been, always will be. Great initial post, Poc. Lots of time to watch the pieces on this one come into play. A white Christmas would be nice, but unlikely when I'll spend mine in Virginia Beach. Had one in 1989 when the OBX got 2 feet in a Christmas Eve blizzard, but all the snow wound up in the roadside ditches because of the intense winds. Was literally nothing in the yard. A couple years back Virginia Beach saw Bay Effect snow bands for an inch or so. Doubt it'll be that cold if the AO isn't tanking off the charts, however. Heck, my home county of Spotsylvania is on day 3 of no school - therefore no work for me - after our 6-8 inches from this past Sunday. Off topic, but how far out can the BSR method go to indicate potential stormy periods in a month? Am already interested in January events here.
  2. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Hot off the press, Sterling just upgraded these areas in northern Central VA to a Winter Storm Warning from a WWA. These counties seem to be the northern extent of the heavier snowfall, aligning pretty much with the MESO discussion map area circled in blue.
  3. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Love how the dropping shortwave in Canada dug enough to reorient the precio field more SW to NE instead of pure W to E. That seems to be why the MESO area is aligned roughly parallel with the Blue Ridge in the advisory. Snowing much harder in Fredericksburg than I anticipated. The convergence zone must be further off to the north. Visibility is under 1/2 mile. Pre treated roads are now snow covered as rates are overcoming melting and sporadic plow traffic. Also enough wind to push snowfall sideways from N to S. Not gusting, but a steady 10-15 mph wind. Probably 2 inches in the last 3 hours since snow started. Not nearly as heavy as further south. A friend in Roanoke measuring a foot on his yard stick and reporting heavy snow continuing.
  4. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Damn, I'm compared to a legend. But I ain't doing no ClapperTracker imitation. There is only one of those.
  5. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    I will not waste the morning watching the agonizingly slow creep north of the edge of precip on radar. I will not waste the morning watching the agonizingly slow creep north of the edge of precip on radar. I will not waste the morning watching the agonizingly slow creep north of the edge of precip on radar. I will not waste the morning watching the agonizingly slow creep north of the edge of precip on radar. I will not waste the morning watching the agonizingly slow creep north of the edge of precip on radar. I will not waste the morning watching the agonizingly slow creep north of the edge of precip on radar. I will not waste the morning watching the agonizingly slow creep north of the edge of precip on radar.
  6. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Call it the banana speedo impact.
  7. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    I remember how excited your posts where when you were on the snowy side of things for a change. Miss the good old days when everyone got snow.
  8. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Or one photo of UTS worshiping at his backyard snow shrine in his speedo. That should cover the cost of tuition nicely. Covering your eyes before looking at said photo? Priceless.
  9. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    New from Sterling. That flip flop they alluded to several forecast discussions ago evidently fits us now. The north trend is officially recognized even though putting out a WWA for Spotsy and Stafford Counties south of DC probably lessens our chances of actually receiving 2-4 inches.
  10. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    IIRC, you got the hammer laid down on you in Salisbury at least once last winter.
  11. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    NWS offices often talk about continuity of forecast. They don't make major changes to the forecast for every model run or no one would take them seriously. When a trend is real, and in a part of the world where a small 50 mile shift in track of a LP center can make a world of difference, it often puts them playing catch up. Nothing like declaring a Winter Storm Warning after 4 to 6 inches of snow has already fallen. In other news, it seems the game is afoot. North trend all day long has me sitting pretty. Far SW VA is not as high above sea level as areas around Blacksburg, and being that far south, they often miss out of the snowier weather that can be found 100 miles NE along I81. Bristol isn't a very good place for snow in Virginia. Your niece will be fine if she stays off the roads. Fredvegas area drivers are nutty in small snowstorms. They don't slow down enough. Big storms they know enough to stay home; smaller 1-3ish events get us lots of fender benders. Should be a walk in the park kinda storm here 45 miles south of DC. Falling on a Sunday helps a great deal. We seem to have a habit of attracting storms that impact our worst in the nation morning or evening commute to DC, which is bad enough in good weather.
  12. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Sterling slowly giving in to a new reality. Maybe enough snow for a good Monday. Wonder if we will have accumulation issues because it isn't intense enough to really stick to the road despite it being cold lately. I noticed on I95 VDOT only treated the right lane as of noon today. The two left lanes didn't have the tell tale white stains.
  13. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    They usually pretty accurate? Seems like an outlier given how far north they show the snow accumulating.
  14. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Logo in top right of graphic, UTS
  15. risingriver

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Big difference between dusting and 2 inches. I think their forecast busts towards Halifax. That's lowball end with this system down there unless sleet mixes in. Probably about right for I95 and Richmond proper.
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