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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

UTSwiinii

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UTSwiinii last won the day on December 5

UTSwiinii had the most liked content!

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About UTSwiinii

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    HIgh atop Blue Mtn - N of HBG PA

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    This moment and the next

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  1. UTSwiinii

    December 19-21, 2018 | Storm Possibility

    FV-XXX sure has a penchant for being entertaining. Good thing the Std. GFS has a handle on this - I was fearing that the mud pit that is my back lot, might actually dry out. EPA declared it a Wetland and I'd hate to lose that status. (/s off)
  2. UTSwiinii

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Gotta give the NAM points for consistency - the donut hole directly over my region of PA has been there all along now.
  3. UTSwiinii

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Those maps usually do not play out at this lead time, so you're very likely "safe".
  4. UTSwiinii

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    (slaps forehead) D'UH OH! Yes, I forgot to include how JDClapper has to consider that and factor that in as well.
  5. UTSwiinii

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    An opportunity to validate my post.... 18z NAM straight up snowfall (at 10:1) Compare that to the snow depth change maps. I even chose a time pd beyond the snow fall map, to see if it increased out in time - it does not, the same map will be found at Hr72 12K 18z NAM
  6. UTSwiinii

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    First - this was never supposed to be all rain for everyone. Anyone who's been tracking this knows that there has been a shot at some snow on the fringe - as was mentioned, inland at elevation. Second - snow maps are useless in marginal temp situations and it may be a better approach to consider snow depth change output. Most sites have that feature among the selections. Even there, don't just consider the number placed on the map. Factor in local climo and time of day AND the fact whether said snow falls onto a soaked surface (and will have trouble accumulating). Not that you have to listen to me - but it might help temper those expectations (and may even enhance them, if you are in a "sweet spot")
  7. Main take away/ screaming message, for me is that we have the GOM open for business with traffic in the Northern Jet lane, for this time period (and beyond?). The potential mesh/mosh brings up intriguing possibility for winter weather lovers.
  8. UTSwiinii

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    "I've been wrong, I've been down - been to the bottom of every bottle (rain) barrel". These five words in my head - is it done raining yet? (yet, yet, yet)
  9. UTSwiinii

    December 19-21, 2018 | Storm Possibility

    We call CMC/GEM - Drunk Uncle, for a reason. 18z H5
  10. UTSwiinii

    December 23rd-26th Storm

    Actually, the accepted definition of WC is at least 1" snow on the ground at 7 a.m. Christmas morning. So that map does not quite go out far enough - need the next 12Hr time stamp. https://www.weather.gov/dvn/ChristmasSnow White Christmas
  11. It will be very futile to try to discern too much from view of Hr240 Op runs. Might as well toss darts given the vast differences between the global models at that time (FV3, GFS, Euro, all with various timing differences - particularly the STJ, but also the Pac Jet). One thing I've notice is the same for all - NONE of them have a decent cold air feed (High pressure - over top - SE Canada, nor in the backing region -- both are occupied by weak shortwave energy). Christmas is one of the few times I actually enjoy a good snowstorm. But so far, I'm not all too impressed with any one solution over another. And, I'm really not impressed with snow chances for the MidAtl. Of course, that is as things stand right now.
  12. A quick moving low pressure system will result in light snow this morning which transitions to rain later this morning into early afternoon, with a low to moderate potential for a light snow accumulation before changeover to rain. A dusting to around an inch of snow is possible before a changeover to rain. Local snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches cannot be ruled out, particularly across southwest Connecticut.
  13. I guess I'd better cool it or risk a scolding for being OT. To that point, I'm going to be pretty tolerant of OT stuff when we're still 10+ days out. But as we draw in on time, so too will I (we) on "allowance" (in the obsx thread, I tend to go ZT depending on the impact of said storm)
  14. LOL - our forum has both grammar and math "Nazis"
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