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  1. This is in response to all who say that the models performed badly on this storm. This is assuming that the there are no major surprises. GFS trend since 12z 1/12/2019 CMC trend since 12z 1/12/2019 ECMWF trend since 12z 1/12/2019 FV3 trend since 12z 1/12/2019 The general evolution and track of the storm has been consistent on the models for days now. We questioned why the storm wouldn't take a more southerly track, but by and large no models (except the ukmet) really showed that. The majority of guidance showed the storm taking the same track run after run - and that track is not ideal for snow for anybody except the interior & New England. The only lingering questions remaining were QPF and thermal profiles - two things that are extremely difficult to nail down at range and could change based on a 25-50 mile change in track - It's no surprise that the models were waffling on those. But again, the storm itself did not really come NW. The rain/snow line did, but the storm itself didn't. Just because the models did not show what you expected them to show or what you wanted them to show, does not mean that they performed poorly.
  2. Going all in with the 4 members (out of 51) that keep things kind of interesting
  3. Many were going nuts simply because it wasn't worse lol
  4. Just got Nam'd with >1" ZR. Hope it's wrong - This would be a widespread disaster.
  5. Been burned way too many times by the HRRR to consider it for anything longer than 5 hour lead time (if that)
  6. Expecting a major move SE today - Refuse to believe hour 252 GFS nailed it.
  7. I find it hard to discount the Euro. It's been awfully steady the last few runs. There's something to be said about a model being precise vs being accurate, but it is empirically our most accurate model (and hi-res). Edit: With that being said, it's also hard to ignore this spread here. Small shifts = significant changes is p-types and durations.
  8. FWIW 06z Icon pretty much held serve from 00z. Significant icing - Temperatures well below freezing at the surface while it's raining in C/Northern NJ
  9. I don't believe this was posted - 00z Ukmet Snowfall (10:1)
  10. About the same as 12z as far as surface low track is concerned - maybe slightly further east, but you'd really be splitting hairs. Can't really speak for thermals.
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