This is in response to all who say that the models performed badly on this storm. This is assuming that the there are no major surprises.
GFS trend since 12z 1/12/2019
CMC trend since 12z 1/12/2019
ECMWF trend since 12z 1/12/2019
FV3 trend since 12z 1/12/2019
The general evolution and track of the storm has been consistent on the models for days now. We questioned why the storm wouldn't take a more southerly track, but by and large no models (except the ukmet) really showed that. The majority of guidance showed the storm taking the same track run after run - and that track is not ideal for snow for anybody except the interior & New England. The only lingering questions remaining were QPF and thermal profiles - two things that are extremely difficult to nail down at range and could change based on a 25-50 mile change in track - It's no surprise that the models were waffling on those. But again, the storm itself did not really come NW. The rain/snow line did, but the storm itself didn't. Just because the models did not show what you expected them to show or what you wanted them to show, does not mean that they performed poorly.