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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays


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  1. Didn't see it posted - there actually was some improvement on the 18z EPS...Will be interesting to see how 00z looks.
  2. 18z Navgem ticked slightly SE from 12z...still on the NW side of the envelope - not by much though which would suggest that we shouldn't expect any major shifts. 12z EPS was awful (if you want snow) for the northeast. Annnnd a quick glimpse at the 18z GEFS doesn't inspire any optimism. I think that 00z runs will be the final nail in the coffin on this one for anything north of the Mason DIxon Line. If so, credit to the models that sniffed this solution out days ago. .
  3. Agreed - Especially when the nav is now on the NW edge of the guidance envelope.
  4. Slight jog NW on the the 12z nav....Nothing substantial but just enough to consider monitoring a bit longer. 12z 06z
  5. Better late than never... 18z EPS...seems to be almost a bifurcation of solutions (i.e. one cluster of lows comes in fast and flat and goes OTS and another cluster that slows and potentially even stalls before going NNE).
  6. Great write-up by Mt Holly discussing the forecast challenges. They are skeptical about the current NWP to say the least. Edit: Maybe the best line: "To be blunt, I am not buying what the models are selling"
  7. njwx7

    October 27, 2018 | Nor'easter

    Because we can now, here's the 6z Euro through 90 hours
  8. njwx7

    October 27, 2018 | Nor'easter

    Forget the umbrella, might want to bring a boat.
  9. The only thing consistent about the Euro's performance with Florence is that it's been consistently bad...at all hours. It's last four runs have been consistently south of the actual track: And it's mean absolute error has been one highest of all models at every hour. And it's Yet people go touting how great the euro is all the time - Just don't get it
  10. Interesting bifurcation shown by the 18z GEFS ... let's see if this just a blip or if it continues to get support at 00z.
  11. Certainly could...The northern GFS solution is not without any support from the EPS either..Here are the 12z EPS tracks. Still plenty of spread