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US Major Winter Storm

Big snow maker to cross country into this weekend, join the conversation!

Q-Zar

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    The exurban fringe of Atlanta, not far from Athens

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  1. It's been very wet in northeast Georgia since mid-October. Hurricane Michael seemed to bring a major pattern change with it, ending the persistent heat that dominated September and early October. Including Hurricane Michael, Athens has received 17.86" of rain since the pattern changed: 4.20" in October, 7.35" in November, and already 6.31" through the first 14 days of December. As for temperatures, the last 90-degree day of the year was October 7, and the last 80-degree day of the year was October 17, so the heat dialed down very rapidly. As for 70-degree days, Athens didn't have one for 24 consecutive days, from November 8-December 1. The streak was ended with a one-off on December 2 (75°F, tying the daily record), but aside from that, December 3 is the only 60-degree day of the month so far, though I'm sure there will be a few more days added to the tally between now and Christmas with the slightly milder weather pattern taking hold. Interestingly, it seems that forecast temperature anomalies are higher in the North than the South, which I guess means that there won't be much of a temperature gradient with latitude. I can live with highs around 60°F and lows around 40°F at Christmastime.
  2. Q-Zar

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Near-normal temperatures at Christmastime is fine with me. It means no 75-degree bullshit like I got in 2015 and 2016.
  3. Q-Zar

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    There doesn't appear to be any Southeast/South Atlantic ridge asserting itself in the next two weeks, so I hope that this verifies. I don't mind if it gets mild for a day or two, as long as the temperature gets knocked back down in short order. I'm sick and tired of extended periods of winter warmth. I've dealt with at least one in each of the previous three winters.
  4. Q-Zar

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Near-normal temperatures at Christmastime is fine with me. It beats the 75-degree bullshit I had to deal with in 2015 and 2016. Christmas was ruined in 2015 by the humid warmth that felt like the aftermath of a stormy night in May, and was only marginally better in 2016 since the air was a bit drier and it cooled off more at night, though there was still no actual chill in the air. Last Christmas was OK. The week prior to it was pretty mild, but Christmas itself was seasonably chilly, and after Christmas it got nice and cold. This Christmas, if it can't be cold here, then I at least hope it'll be seasonable for the second year in a row. I'm actually in a Christmas mood in early December for the first time in years, thanks to all the chilly weather. I'm even listening to the local all-Christmas (Adult Contemporary) radio station when I'm out driving.
  5. As long as we don't have another warm Christmas. It happened two Christmases in a row, in 2015 and 2016. Total buzzkill. I need some chill in order to enjoy the season. Even "slightly above normal" is OK, just as long as temperatures don't approach the 70s. No warmer than the lower 60s, please, and preferably 50s or cooler. P.S. I enjoyed the two cold-air damming events last week. Perfect weather for being lazy and watching football.
  6. The sun is out today for the first time in about a week. Pretty cold, though, with a low of 32°F in Athens this morning, which is the first freeze of the season. It appears that the pattern will be mild for most of the rest of the month.
  7. Severe storms are expected along and ahead of a cold front stretching from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Potentially significant severe weather threat capable of damaging winds, strong tornadoes, and large hail is expected overnight into Tuesday from northern Mississippi across Tennessee and into central Kentucky. A frontal system over the western U.S. is forecast to drop southeast into the central Plains later today.
  8. It's looking like a lunchtime event for north Georgia if the timing of the NAM is accurate. Hopefully the fact that it won't be mid- to late afternoon will keep the storms from being too vigorous here.
  9. The SPC is already issuing a 30% probability in the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday, and 15% probability in Georgia and the Carolinas on Tuesday. That's a bad omen. I don't want to die or get my house smash, especially not right before the holidays.
  10. Just moderate to heavy rain where I am right now. Apparently there's a possibility of severe weather for my area on Election Day.
  11. This is just a gut feeling, but I think this winter will be wetter for the entire South, and snowier for most of the South. The average temperature for the season will average out colder than last winter as well, not because of any long-duration cold events, but because of a lack of long-duration warm events like we've seen in each of the previous three winters. Basically, no month will be as cold as January 2018 was, but no month will be as warm as February 2018 was either, and the average temperature for each month will be closer to the former than the latter. There will be periods of Arctic air, but they will not last for more than a week at a time. There will be mild to warm periods, but they will not last for more than a few days at a time. The number of cool to cold days will be almost double the number of mild to warm days. I think 2002-2003 will be the closest analog, though the cold won't be quite as extreme. I also suspect that many of us will have a colder-than-normal December for a change. Don't be surprised if there's a major severe weather event in mid-November that kicks off the pattern for the winter.
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