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WINTER IS HERE!

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Q-Zar

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    The exurban fringe of Atlanta, not far from Athens

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  1. The sun is out today for the first time in about a week. Pretty cold, though, with a low of 32°F in Athens this morning, which is the first freeze of the season. It appears that the pattern will be mild for most of the rest of the month.
  2. Severe storms are expected along and ahead of a cold front stretching from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. Potentially significant severe weather threat capable of damaging winds, strong tornadoes, and large hail is expected overnight into Tuesday from northern Mississippi across Tennessee and into central Kentucky. A frontal system over the western U.S. is forecast to drop southeast into the central Plains later today.
  3. It's looking like a lunchtime event for north Georgia if the timing of the NAM is accurate. Hopefully the fact that it won't be mid- to late afternoon will keep the storms from being too vigorous here.
  4. The SPC is already issuing a 30% probability in the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday, and 15% probability in Georgia and the Carolinas on Tuesday. That's a bad omen. I don't want to die or get my house smash, especially not right before the holidays.
  5. Just moderate to heavy rain where I am right now. Apparently there's a possibility of severe weather for my area on Election Day.
  6. Q-Zar

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    I like that map.
  7. This is just a gut feeling, but I think this winter will be wetter for the entire South, and snowier for most of the South. The average temperature for the season will average out colder than last winter as well, not because of any long-duration cold events, but because of a lack of long-duration warm events like we've seen in each of the previous three winters. Basically, no month will be as cold as January 2018 was, but no month will be as warm as February 2018 was either, and the average temperature for each month will be closer to the former than the latter. There will be periods of Arctic air, but they will not last for more than a week at a time. There will be mild to warm periods, but they will not last for more than a few days at a time. The number of cool to cold days will be almost double the number of mild to warm days. I think 2002-2003 will be the closest analog, though the cold won't be quite as extreme. I also suspect that many of us will have a colder-than-normal December for a change. Don't be surprised if there's a major severe weather event in mid-November that kicks off the pattern for the winter.
  8. Q-Zar

    Fall 2018 | Outlook and Discussion

    It's in the 50s here this morning.
  9. Q-Zar

    Fall 2018 | Outlook and Discussion

    Tonight, I get to turn off the air conditioner for the first time since May.
  10. Michael wound up so fast in such a short period of time that inertia allowed him to maintain hurricane strength deep into the middle of Georgia.
  11. I lived through Typhoon Yancey in Taiwan back in 1990. It was just a Category 1 typhoon, but I still got to see a few shingles blow loose and an empty dumpster get pushed down the street. In the aftermath, I saw lots of trees, power lines and light poles that were either downed or askew.
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