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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

horseapples

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    Lancaster, PA

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    Snow day, of course....

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  1. horseapples

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I would say so. We have some suddenly moderate snow here in Lancaster and the pavement again covering quickly.
  2. horseapples

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Light snow has started again here in Lancaster about 1/2 hour ago
  3. horseapples

    February 10-11, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Okay, now in the correct thread... About 2" here in Lancaster (about 3miles NE of the city) with continued light-mod snow. Radar collapsing to the north as modeled and so should get a break here for a while before restarting later.
  4. horseapples

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Will do, didn't realize there were 2 threads. Will climb back into my hole now...
  5. horseapples

    February 10-11, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Looking at the HRRR we may get a break in the early afternoon, but should snow here for most of the day and into the night before overnight transition. It started here around 9pm last night and there was a break during the overnight before a restart around sunrise. About 2" on the ground with a nice light-mod snow falling. Temp 29, light NE breeze outside. Looks like another 3-5" in this area before the changeover but that depends on the snow intensity during the day and whether we get a break. After the transition, there will be a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain from N MD up through NY.
  6. horseapples

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Quite the potpourri here In Lancaster for the next few days.. 32 degrees here now with dpt of 20 and overcast. Time to get some of those obs going as the radar is filling in nicely across N VA, MD and PA.
  7. horseapples

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    NAM goes full-on crackhead after that and the result is this through the end of the storm. Now, clearly this is not all snow but if you simply consider this as all frozen it is quite a mess.
  8. horseapples

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Okay, so not all of this is snow on the 00z NAM, but it is all frozen to this point. That is watch and warning material there. Will have to see if the other 00z models follow suit and if there are watches posted by morning for involved areas. This has become gradually more impressive in step with those H5 changes MJ identified. Albanyweather picked up on the cooling at the surface relative to the last NAM run which is certainly contributing here has well. The CMC and now the NAM are the most bullish on the front-end dump/lead disturbance but it has been there (to a lesser degree) on the euro. Effects further downstream to be determined...
  9. horseapples

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Yes, euro actually not bad at sorting out precip types and the snow maps are often quite good. It is a challenge for all the models, however, in these changeover situations
  10. horseapples

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Well, here in Lancaster, we stand to get a couple of inches from the lead wave and maybe 2-3 more from the main show before the changeover. The kids will be happy as the first wave should buy them a delay on Monday and the main show a delay on Tuesday - near perfect timing to screw up both days. Two disrupted school days and not much to show for it after all the rain... Looking at the GFS, it did shift about 50miles south with the southern extent of the snow. This puts it much closer in line with the euro and CMC, but still lower with snow totals.
  11. horseapples

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Looks like something brewing off VA capes. Hard to tell in one frame.
  12. horseapples

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    This is ugly..
  13. horseapples

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I am shocked at the inconsistency, but not the outcome. As has been said, this is not a good setup with that low running up into the lakes. Yes, it can rarely deliver. Most of the time it does not. The models may just be coming around to that reality.
  14. horseapples

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Well, just being honest, we seem to get one lousy setup/winter that still manages to deliver the goods and that was the November storm. Now, if that primary is much weaker, as has been shown inconsistently at times on the models, a much snowier outcome is likely.
  15. horseapples

    February 12-13, 2019 | Winter Storm

    I am afraid this is another not-good setup. Just can't seem to get something to run by to the south/east without the associate primary up in the lakes. Even the storm in November that delivered for most was a marginal setup with the primary running up to the eastern lakes. I would argue it overperformed its setup.
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