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White Christmas?

Latest odds and storm events for the holidays tracked

horseapples

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    Snow day, of course....

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  1. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Well, GooFuS is sure it will snow in western NC, otherwise just start throwing darts.
  2. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Hello neighbor! And yes, I agree. The variance is starker with this particular system, it seems, which makes for a very difficult forecast from about least Fredericksburg down to Richmond and the rest of southern VA.
  3. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    RGEM looked north on its last run but ran out of time at 48 hours. Still not inconceivable as it is able to push the moisture further north without the low center coming further north. The low location is in keeping with other guidance, it is the field of precipitation to the north that the models are having trouble handling. That is what makes that outcome plausible. If the low itself was 100miles north of all other guidance it would be harder to believe.
  4. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Well, they are only the whole state of VA further north than the other guidance less than 3d out. So, really no big difference in outcomes...
  5. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    If you are Canadian, I think you have a chance. Otherwise, it doesn't look promising.
  6. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    We were visiting friends in Raleigh years ago for new years, maybe around 2002 or 2003. We had a snowfall of nearly a foot. 3d later we left as we had to get home. There was still nothing plowed - anywhere! We drove hours on I85 heading up to Richmond on snowpack. They hadn't even cleared in the interstate 3days later. If they had even one reliable plow, that would be the first thing to clear. They just left the snow where it fell (and stayed inside) waiting for some warmth to take it away. I agree, that will shut NC down. We joke about getting the milk and eggs here in the northern mid-atlantic, but those people are not kidding. They literally may not be able to get out for days. Ooh, pagetopper! Bo .... oh, forget it, I got nothin'
  7. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    For the folks in central and even northern VA including DC and certainly down to Fredericksburg and Richmond, I think this still bears a close watch. Still a few days until impact in those areas and further shifts, even if subtle, could spell drastically different outcomes.
  8. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    I agree that there are some atmospheric factors at play, but just keep thinking of him saying that. Particularly in this case. Well, still time for some changes and dry and cold always beats warm and rain.... If it does play out as modeled, NC will be paralyzed for weeks. I think that state owns one snow plow and it is probably in the shop right now.
  9. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Margusity also used to say that where a storm enters the country is also where it exits. He was referring to bowling ball storms such as this one. This one enters southern California and exits the Carolinas.
  10. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Uggh, hate to hang my hat on that hook....but, since it's the only hook atm, I will go with it!
  11. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    I can't argue with that. It was incredible how well it nailed Sandy. Don't wish to jinx the situation, or upset the beast....
  12. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    That graphic reminds me: 1. that is not a bad place to see a low 7d out and 2. we are still 7d out and 5 from initial impacts. I think that graphic is well supported by the euro so it is not overcalling the location of the low using a more "favorable" model. I am not smart enough to overlay the graphic, but someone might be able to do it.
  13. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Agree with others that we have a couple of days still for this to evolve. All models, regardless of their accuracy, will be wrong sometimes. I will remind everyone that the euro refused to show the final outcome of the Jan 2016 storm until the 0z run the night it was already snowing in DC, Philly, and may have been up to NYC as well. I will be surprised if this does not come north as these systems always seem to in the preceding few days, just how far north is the question.
  14. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    The mid-atlantic (and possibly northeast...) are still 5-6d out and maybe 7d out on this threat. There is the potential of a large winter storm that, atm, seems to be missing to the southeast - where would you want to see it?? The trailing feature needs to be sorted out and seems to be affecting both timing and track. FV3 that just come out is nearly identical to the last with the precip shield maybe 30miles south. There is still a redevelopment/stall feature related to phasing that might take another couple of days to figure out as well. Sit back and sip the hot cocoa. A miss to the south is better than rain from a miss to the north. I just don't think this one is done yet - more surprises to come...
  15. horseapples

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    After watching the GFS and CMC runs, I agree that this is critical and it is too early to determine how this will play out. That secondary low has come and gone and come back again on various model runs. I think the jumping around of the lows and the apparent stall are all related to this feature and the outcome hangs in the balance. Will be some yet to sort this out as the models are still playing with that energy. I still think this comes north, but I could be wrong...
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