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Spring Fever Spreading

Will Spring be on time for your region? Join the Conversation >> Long Range Spring Outlook


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About OSNW3

  • Birthday 09/02/1976

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    Oshkosh, WI

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  1. OSNW3

    October 27, 2018 | Nor'easter

    Indeed. Forced verification is the foundation of the paper. The verification example in this thread is a general spatial correlation that is not referred to in the paper.
  2. OSNW3

    October 27, 2018 | Nor'easter

    Attached is the BSR 5 day anomaly correlation at 500MB and SLP centered on 10/27. More here: http://www.consonantchaos.com/a-all.html
  3. OSNW3

    Bering Sea Rule Verification

    I have integrated the corresponding 610d and the 1620d RRWT CONUS verification to the BSR and EAR verification page. The ebb and flow shall be interesting to watch. http://www.consonantchaos.com/a-all.html (Verification)
  4. OSNW3

    Fall 2018 | Outlook and Discussion

    There is certainly feedback that suggests severe weather in that time frame. Hopefully it doesn't come to fruition.
  5. OSNW3

    Fall 2018 | Outlook and Discussion

    Latest RRWT suggests the cold expands in weeks 7 and 8.
  6. That is a a gigantic diurnal variation! Also, brrr! :)
  7. I can envision it now for my back yard. Thundershowers. Then as the cold air settles in all surfaces that are wet freeze. Then a wind blown snow fall that measures to a Trace. All too familiar. :)
  8. My back yard recorded a 39.8F diurnal temperature variation with the morning observation today. This ranks 4th all-time since genesis.
  9. OSNW3

    Fall 2018 | Outlook and Discussion

    The Bering Sea Rule has had a good run as of late!
  10. OSNW3

    Fall 2018 | Outlook and Discussion

    Indeed. Analogs that created the referenced outlooks. And at the moment the RRWT BeOP interval is suggesting a similar flow as we move into October.
  11. OSNW3

    Fall 2018 | Outlook and Discussion

    If it isn't the second half of the month, perhaps then the first two weeks of November? (Per RRWT below)
  12. OSNW3

    Fall 2018 | Outlook and Discussion

    The RRWT is sensing a similar footprint for the next 30 days.
  13. OSNW3

    Fall 2018 | Outlook and Discussion

    My back yard averages 1.5 days with thunder in the month of October. Recent RRWT suggesting four out of the next six 5-day periods could host a day with thunder in Wisconsin.
  14. OSNW3

    Fall 2018 | Outlook and Discussion

    For what it is worth, I prepare EAR 5-day anomaly spatial correlation statistics. Click on the daily score for the correlation maps here: http://www.consonantchaos.com/a-all.html (Verification/Bering Sea & East Asia Rules)
  15. Regarding the SOID plot your referenced. I see the ND and Canadian border daily H5 anomaly in observed plots and RRWT ~16-20 day analogs. .