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OSNW3

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About OSNW3

  • Birthday 09/02/1976

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    Oshkosh, WI

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  1. Indeed. Forced verification is the foundation of the paper. The verification example in this thread is a general spatial correlation that is not referred to in the paper.
  2. Attached is the BSR 5 day anomaly correlation at 500MB and SLP centered on 10/27. More here: http://www.consonantchaos.com/a-all.html
  3. I have integrated the corresponding 610d and the 1620d RRWT CONUS verification to the BSR and EAR verification page. The ebb and flow shall be interesting to watch. http://www.consonantchaos.com/a-all.html (Verification)
  4. There is certainly feedback that suggests severe weather in that time frame. Hopefully it doesn't come to fruition.
  5. Latest RRWT suggests the cold expands in weeks 7 and 8.
  6. I can envision it now for my back yard. Thundershowers. Then as the cold air settles in all surfaces that are wet freeze. Then a wind blown snow fall that measures to a Trace. All too familiar. :)
  7. My back yard recorded a 39.8F diurnal temperature variation with the morning observation today. This ranks 4th all-time since genesis.
  8. The Bering Sea Rule has had a good run as of late!
  9. Indeed. Analogs that created the referenced outlooks. And at the moment the RRWT BeOP interval is suggesting a similar flow as we move into October.
  10. If it isn't the second half of the month, perhaps then the first two weeks of November? (Per RRWT below)
  11. The RRWT is sensing a similar footprint for the next 30 days.
  12. My back yard averages 1.5 days with thunder in the month of October. Recent RRWT suggesting four out of the next six 5-day periods could host a day with thunder in Wisconsin.
  13. For what it is worth, I prepare EAR 5-day anomaly spatial correlation statistics. Click on the daily score for the correlation maps here: http://www.consonantchaos.com/a-all.html (Verification/Bering Sea & East Asia Rules)
  14. Regarding the SOID plot your referenced. I see the ND and Canadian border daily H5 anomaly in observed plots and RRWT ~16-20 day analogs. .
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