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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

Uscg ast

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Everything posted by Uscg ast

  1. Uscg ast

    Winter 2018-2019 | Outlooks and Discussion

    Can you please provide your evidence as to why you say winter will last through April? Being fair, we have not necessarily had a winter in the Northeast.
  2. Great article. Thanks for the find and read
  3. The dynamics on this are going to be hard pressed to push much further NE imo. This is thermo dynamic driven and the low level cold is pressing down, situating the gradient where you see now. It's possible it pushes NE, but it will be hard pressed I believe
  4. Uscg ast

    February 27-28, 2019 | Winter Storm

    Brah this Sandy, Michael, '93 &' 96 all in one
  5. Latent heat release... It's coming north. I hid the posts regarding the next set of long range storms. I will transfer them over when a thread is opened, I just do not have the time to currently. @Fire/RescueI accidentally deleted a post of yours. My apologies.
  6. Depending on where the best forcing sets up, those on the northern fringe could see several inches of snow before the warm front can lift North. This cold is rather dense, and though it's shifting East, it will not give up so easily, hence why the precip field is having trouble lifting North on models. PAGE TOPPER BOOM "If history repeats itself, I am so getting a dinosaur"
  7. It's a mixture of both a bit of a bump North and a more robust qpf field. Models are picking up on the fact that there is more room for the precip to expand north. Likewise, those on the northern fringe will likely have some rather intense banding due to forcing.
  8. But it was snowing really bad and I was weally weally scareded For the record im 6-1/250 and bench 385.. To provide context on why I was so scared
  9. I was fired once for not driving to work in a blizzard On topic... This is continuing to bump North, as has been the trend all year. I believe NYC, LI and even S CT have a legit shot at a true snow storm.
  10. They have until about 0500 tomorrow morning to decide. More than likely they will air on the side of caution and close if there's a chance of that. Liability.
  11. Did you see the one regarding the snow at 50 degrees in Vegas? https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2018-12-28-las-vegas-nevada-snow-temperatures-above-50-degrees
  12. Folks, please remember snow maps are notoriously one of the most inaccurate model depictions. Likewise, combine this with a marginal airmass (at the upper levels) and LP placement and well, you get the picture.
  13. There is a push to redo the warning system. That's part of the journal entry I'm writing with @Burr@Work
  14. Seems like a redux of the January storm that burned me so badly...
  15. https://www.weather.gov/bgm/winterterms This is the text version. IF it is SNOW ONLY, the attached maps apply.
  16. You had stated it in such a way, that I took it as you using accuweather to back up your claim that the fat lady was singing on this winter. After your clarification your viewpoint is better understood, so it is appreciated. Off topic - who here knows where the term the fat lady sings comes from?
  17. You dare question me!? JK. With regards to your post, I'll agree about the blocking, without a doubt. I'll agree to disagree about the energy. The split flow screaming from the pacific is killing us this year (not to mention flooding the UL with warm air). The energy is divided into two so there's plenty of it, just sheared out as you said. Just look at California, it's been getting pummeled lately with significant weather. That energy is there, just sheared out, so the raw potential energy is high imo. Though, I see where you're coming from.
  18. It is because the model is mesoscale. Therefore, while it picks up on the CAD, it sometimes has feedback issues due to the strength of the dense cold air in place. As such, the model has trouble pinpointing exactly where the center of it is at times.
  19. Nice analysis and post. I agree with you, this storm looks to present an opportunity that others have not this winter.