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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

ryanduff

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ryanduff last won the day on December 6

ryanduff had the most liked content!

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About ryanduff

  • Birthday 07/30/1984

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    Havre de Grace, MD

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  1. ryanduff

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    All I see is flood watches.
  2. ryanduff

    December 12-13, 2018 | "Clipper"

    Did that literally dissipate then re-appear after it passed over Williamsport?
  3. ryanduff

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Meanwhile this weekend we have too much cold air to work with. 😂
  4. ryanduff

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Uhh... because most of the snow has already fallen and the forecasts are for what's left not total snowfall? Go get some coffee.
  5. ryanduff

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    I was never good with words that have multiple meanings. My mind immediately went to "wth are you chewing tobacco with your cheerios?"
  6. ryanduff

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Good writeup from Sterling even noting those "outlier" ensemble members.
  7. ryanduff

    December 14-17, 2018 | "Winter" Storm

    Hey @MDBlueRidge there's that GLC I was looking for! 😂
  8. ryanduff

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    After dropping the past 3 runs, the mean jumped back up at Aberdeen Proving Ground down[stream] of Philly on I-95 on the most recent sref run.
  9. ryanduff

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    Huh. 3 members getting something up to Philly.
  10. ryanduff

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    More like rekt. Is that 0.86" for Charlotte?
  11. ryanduff

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    My turn to SREF post right after you.
  12. ryanduff

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    It's in the text at the bottom. "Circles represent where lows historically verify 75% of the time."
  13. ryanduff

    December 8-10, 2018 | Winter Storm

    12z MDD from WPC ~~~~~~~~~ Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 133 PM EST Fri Dec 07 2018 Valid Dec 07/1200 UTC thru Dec 11/0000 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 12Z Model Evaluation...with Final Preferences and Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Pattern across South Central US/Southeast... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 12z ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS and 00z ECMWF blend Confidence: Slightly above average 19z update: As alluded to with initial preference, the trend toward faster solution with the lead wave was noted with the 12z ECMWF/UKMET and CMC as well. All three continue to lag the GFS and NAM but much less so now, and line up well with 12z GEFS mean. The 12z CMC shifted a bit less showing slowest crossing of the south into the southeast and is a tad further north than the guidance/closer to the coast...not a tremendous difference but will reduce the overall weighting in the blend. With the upstream wave, crossing the Plains into the lower MS River valley, the ECMWF/UKMET are faster and adjusted favorably to match the GFS/NAM to have good agreement with the lingering coastal front and secondary surface cyclogenesis; in fact the UKMET even pressed the height-falls and surface wave a bit east of the other guidance, but enough to support a general model blend for that wave... but still a 12z ECMWF/UKMET and 12z GEFS (00z ECENS mean) blend for the lead wave. Confidence is slightly above average given the late guidance shifts. ---Prior Discussion--- The 12z GFS while slightly slower than the 06z GFS continues to be the flattest solution and along with the 12z NAM in the fastest solution camp too. While there has been a slow run to run trend in a slightly faster/flatter solution, the GFS does not appear to be as viable within the solution. As alluded to, the 12z NAM is fast, but with a stronger cold surge relative to the other guidance, it deepens the cyclone off the southeast coast a bit too much lending toward the northernmost solution, which is not favored at this time. Both the NAM/GFS are on the outer fringe of the GEFS member solutions and while the GEFS is equally flat compared to the bulk of ECENS members...there is better overall timing and could be incorporated with the blend to compensate the loss of other NCEP solutions. The 00z ECMWF, CMC and UKMET are much slower than the GFS/NAM and appear to be behind the aforementioned guidance trend in the run to run ensemble suite, as such will incorporate the GEFS/ECENS mean in the preferred blend. As a secondary compact shortwave descends out of the northern stream late in the weekend, the timing difference between the GFS/NAM and the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET remains apparent, yet the lingering front and slight differences in depth, allow for a tightening of the GFS/NAM to the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC toward the end of the forecast period into the Southeast. As such, confidence slightly increases in the preferred blend (still with GFS/NAM removed) through Monday to 00z Tuesday.
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