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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion


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About wtkidz

  • Birthday October 5

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  • Locale
    Fredericksburg, VA


  • Interests
    10lb Poodle that thinks he is a bit bull, kinda like a few storms I have seen in my life.

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  1. We are now to sleet here in southern northern Virginia or you could say northern central virginia Keeping our 2” s of snow watching the sleet bounce off of it
  2. Just a bit under two inches on the “redneck “snow stick. Maybe an inch or two more then sleet and finally rain. Light snow and 30
  3. had to share It used just say snow, now heavy snow. of course it will need to go weight watchers
  4. Just updated Sterling Afd .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Chilly today under building high pressure with increasing high clouds later today. Northerly winds will continue to advect lower dewpoints through early afternoon and act to strengthen the sfc wedge once precip begins later tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... No sig changes were noted among the 00Z global models if anything a little colder aloft and slightly slower precip onset time. Significant heavy wintry precip event expected late tonight into Thu morning as warm moist air on the east side of sfc cyclone over the mid MS valley overruns strong sfc high pressure east of the Appalachians. Cold air damming signature is pretty strong with 1040 mb high north of the region and sfc dewpoints in the teens and potentially single digits. Very strong upper level forcing indicated by global models in the 09-18Z time frame Wed will lead to an expansive area of wintry precip with intense snowfall rates likely with warning level snows expected. Warmer air aloft begins to move in after 18Z with snow changing/mixing with sleet and eventually changing to freezing rain. By 00Z Thu, snow should have transitioned to freezing rain or rain depending on sfc temps. Southeast areas will see the transition to rain first with cold air at the sfc hanging tough over northern and northwest portions of the area specifically west of Rt 15 and north of I-70. By midnight Wed night, most areas should have transitioned to rain except possibly in the typically colder valleys of Allegany and Morgan Counties. Any lingering fzra should have transitioned to all rain by 12Z Thu with precip ending by midday Thu as secondary area of low pressure lifts away to the northeast. Please see our winter weather products and precip-type accumulations for specific snow/ice amounts.
  5. well IMBY we get these storm s no watch and suddenly a warning. I live a area e that is too far south of DC but to far north for Richmond and seems to have its own climate
  6. You may want to fly tomorrow. or early Wednesday . morning.
  7. A lot of moisture predicted and rainbow of types. It will be "fun" to see how it plays out.
  8. Well this is strange. TWC has this for my area. Now i think this is unlikely but strange. Especially after the 6z NAM says it is north with snow.
  9. Sterlings experimental Winter . i am sure that includes sleet as snow.
  10. Latest from Sterling. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday will be quiet weatherwise, as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes to New York/Pennsylvania. Warm advection will hold off until late in the day, so it will be cool but dry and not terribly windy. Lowers highs a couple degrees, into the mid 30s-lower 40s. This high (approx 1037 mb) will gradually set up over New England, keeping a supply of cold air over the Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile a trough axis crossing the Rockies will send a stream of deep moisture northeast, strengthening a baroclinic zone and eventually causing weak low pressure to develop in the center of the CONUS. The precipitation that results will be anything but weak, with strong upward motion within the snow growth zone, resulting in a swath of moderate to heavy precip. Believe that precipitation (snow) will develop Tuesday night from southwest to northeast. Continued warm advection aloft will permit a warm nose to develop, causing the precip to gradually change from snow to sleet, freezing rain, and ultimately rain. This transition likely wouldn`t start until midday Wednesday. There is the potential for a significant snowfall prior to the changeover. Then, as temperatures warm aloft and cold air is trapped at the surface, a period of accumulating freezing rain will follow. Have issued a Winter Storm Watch for most of the area Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening along/west of I-95 to address the heavy snow and freezing rain threats. Low pressure will strengthen and head toward the Great Lakes Wednesday night, which will permit enough warming to start the transition to rain. However, suspect that some freezing rain will linger in climo favored areas west of I-95. &&
  11. To stir it up . I agree all snow maps usually are overstated . Here is Pivitol's snow map for hour 90 on 18Z GFS and it is picking up the sleet in the totals
  12. 18Z GFS hour 60 66 72 . 78 . 84 . 90 . & 96 let's see if this is the truth