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US Wild Weather

Extreme active pattern across the entire US continues, what does it mean for your region? Join the conversion

AccuChris

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    Lebanon, PA

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  1. Just measured 0.20” of ice accretion in Lebanon. Steady freezing rain now with temp at 30F
  2. This is highly concerning. Im at 29F in Lebanon PA and its been freezing drizzle and light freezing rain since 3pm. I have a solid 0.10” of ice accretion on top of the snow. With the sun going down other surfaces are freezing up quickly.
  3. Appears the strong confluence/jet has assisted in ripping apart the initial WAA snow/thump over PA. I have light snow in Lebanon with about 3.5" and skies have brightened. Had the intensity stayed strong for more than about 2 hours, my location easily would have 5-6" but not meant to be with the degradation of the snow shield which has been sheared. HRRR has been consistent that light snow will continue most of the afternoon and change to sleet later this afternoon. What is interesting is this evening/tonight when the temp is supposed to be 30F then and heavy freezing rain at night.
  4. Now at 3" in Lebanon with moderate snow still. Temp is 26F
  5. Radar is looking very impressive in central PA heading eastbound. Looks like there was a bunch of thundersnow in southwest PA before with this batch. Should be easy 1-2"/hr rates with this band. Looks to be knocking on Harrisburgs door soon
  6. Just measured 1" in Lebanon. Moderate snow. Temp is 25F
  7. Snow has literally just started in Lebanon PA Went from a couple flakes to steady light snow within 2 minutes.
  8. Current obs in Lebanon, PA. Cloud deck is lowering but nothing reaching the ground
  9. 12Z Euro total QPF map and standard 10:1 snow map.
  10. Assume the upper levels will warm faster than modeled (i.e. expect a change over to sleet faster than expected) but expect sleet and freezing rain to last longer than modeled as well. The 700mb warming is always faster than expected but surface temps will hold below freezing longer. Therefore, temper actual snowfall amounts but anticipate sleet and freezing rain amounts to over perform.
  11. QPF seems to be just fine on the RGEM for many but its temps are similar to the GFS and warm things very quickly after 2PM tomorrow. Seems way too warm at the surface to me.
  12. The GFS is notorious for over warming the surface temps in systems like this. Last week for example, Lebanon PA never got above freezing during the entire duration of that event when the GFS, even 12 hours earlier was bumping temps into the mid-upper 30's. The CAD signature appears even stronger this go around with fresh modified arctic air in place for many regions. With precip rates likely to be even heavier, strong wet-bulbing should keep temps in the 20's for a while, especially interior areas. While upper level temps will warm quickly after the initial thump snow, this storm screams extended sleet/ZR with even heavier amounts than last weeks storm. Follow the Hi-Res 3km NAM and blend with the Euro and you should get pretty close to reality here. Even those may be a degree or two too warm, which makes a world of difference in ice storms.
  13. 12Z Hi Res NAM is just ugly for a lot of PA tomorrow
  14. NWS CTP mentioned this in their afternoon AFD that a portion of the watch will likely go to an advisory but they are waiting to see how things look before commiting to warnings or advisories. The beauty of a watch is to sound the alarm early and refine, make final calls closer to the event one way or another. A watch does not guarantee a warning etc.
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