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Perfect Day

Found 5 results

  1. Doesn't this thread sound familiar? It's because it is. In fact, I can pretty much quote my opening from the last thread. Here's a look at where our polar airmass is coming from, courtesy of the 18z ICON. FV3-GFS 2-meter temperature anomalies - appears that the cold wave is at maximum on Saturday, December 8th. I did not include an end date to this thread because the "warmup" is storm-dependent. 18z ICON 2-meter temperatures - look at the below 0°F temperature range in the interior. And lastly, 18z NAM 12k 2-meter windchills... WOW. I'll be skiing Saturday morning, so I'll be in prime position to give OBS.
  2. Well folks, it should be no surprise that we have been in an abnormally cold pattern. Yet, it continues, with a peak around Thanksgiving. GFS long loop, including past temperatures. As you can see, the temperatures are unusually cold. And then the polar air arrives around the 21st. GFS loop of 2 meter air temperatures. Verbatim, parts of PA, CT, NY remain below freezing for about 2 days, while the northern tier will struggle to reach the 20s. WOW. The ICON has been pretty good at forecasting temperatures. Just one look at the 2 meter temperatures is enough to make me go . I'll include the GEM as well, as it also shows the polar air of similar magnitude. Here's an ICON long loop, just to show where the air comes from. Arctic Oscillation Index. All sticking very low.
  3. Looks like there is light at the end of the tunnel! Starting to narrow in on a pattern change following the October 10-12 storm / tropical system. Dare I say the end of the growing season? Maybe even a first snow for certain areas? FV3-GFS temperature anomalies. Obviously not accurate to the latter sections of the loop, but just goes to show the shift of the cold air mass. FV3-GFS 500 mb anomalies. Tropical systems look to play an important role. Usually when the forecast hour is under 200 (180 for the "safe" side) the overall scope is "accurate." At least I hope. . WPC Day 5 surface forecast. Beautiful, beautiful high pressure following in the wake of the storms. CPC Week 3-4 temperature probabilities. I'll drop this here to corroborate the "?" date.
  4. After the storm warmup on the 15th, the cold returns even stronger. Lake effect snow might start up and give some their first flakes! Frost looking likely at this point, too. ICON 2m temperatures. In my opinion, ICON is pretty good with temperatures compared to other models. Side-by-side FV3-GFS radar and 2m temperatures. Coldest frame on FV3-GFS. As I mentioned in the other thread, these are 2m temperatures, not ground-level temperatures. If this actually verifies, it would result in the end of the growing season and a heavy frost for many locations. Flashback to October 18th, 2015. Image credit to @NorEaster27. Temperatures were ~40°F at the surface, yet due to cold air aloft, there were snowflakes all the way in SW CT.
  5. Pattern shift incoming! Must be a welcome sight for most here tired of endless heat and humidity... Just look at that temperature anomaly swing! 540 thickness even makes it into Maine! Been a long time since that has happened. Looping GIF to highlight the temperatures. Here are the temperature and dewpoints for Sunday morning. While still quite far out, it is a refreshing sight to see. There is light at the end of the tunnel. I'll throw in the ICON too, since temperatures seem to be its strong point. Circled in the next image is our cold airmass and the forecasted track. Next Cold Wave Thread:
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