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About Me



Perfect Day

Found 9 results

  1. PREFACE Hello, posters and lurkers! This thread opener will not be a very laborious one. Perhaps because the weather has been so ingrate, it does not deserve a traditional thread opener. This time frame may give the region some kind of storm to entertain us courtesy of the same usually players; an active southern stream with its moisture riches and the northern stream. But this time, we have a very illustrious player; the polar vortex. There are some indications that since the polar vortex will from time to time relax its grip over the region, a storm could take the opportunity to affect the region, using the polar vortex as some kind of blocking mechanism to spare us a Great Lakes cutter. From the observations I have been making for the last two days, it seems that the first period that the polar vortex will relax some over the region will be during the time frame for this thread. With so much energy crossing the continental US and that unrelenting southern stream branch, perhaps the presence of the polar vortex during a reloading period is what is needed to make a storm come together for the region in a way most could benefit. Now, talking guidance wise, there are some hints here and there both on the operational and ensemble sides. Please see them below, most should be subtle, though. EPS CONTROL 12Z Jan 23rd 00Z Jan 24th 12Z Jan 24th 00Z Jan 25th 00Z FV3 06Z FV3 [Given the chaotic state of the atmosphere over the CONUS, the thread dates will likely need to be adjusted later on closer to whatever event comes].
  2. There looks to be a good chance at seeing a decent system around this time frame. It’s on all the models. Lots of shifts in expected track for the next few days but it’s no doubt one that needs tracking. 18z GFS 12z CMC 12z euro
  3. The models have gotten a better handle on what's to come in the post-Thanksgiving period. GFS-FV3 and GFS both stall the ULL and continue the snow into the 27th. Areas of NW WI on the GFS has almost 3 days of snow! While the Euro is more progressive.
  4. A potent system moving along a Trinidad A configuration is going to be quite the storm. Could provide me with a decent snow event next week...
  5. Another in a series of systems should be tracking into the region around this time frame. There is more cold air out in front of the low so looks to be a better chance for accumulating snow for several areas including around the GTA. Here are some images from the latest model runs. GFS Snow map NAM is further east GEM is the furthest west This system definitely needs to be watched as I think it has good potential for accumulating snow for some areas that haven’t got any yet.
  6. Hello posters and lurkers; Recently, the Mid Atlantic and Northeast CONUS regions have been influenced by a rather stormy pattern, with consective FROPAs passing through the region and still progged to pass through. These FROPAs bring along with them trofs to the region as the cold fronts depart, and these same trofs can allow for storms to form and affect the region, either as coastal storms, coastal huggers, inland runners, etc. Each trof that swings by the region, therefore, helps to cool down the atmosphere and the surface with the cooler and colder air that accompany them. and as a direct result, progressively increase the snow fall cover over SE Canada and nothern areas of upstate NY and New England, especially over the higher terrain. This evolution of the colder cycle of the northern hemisphere in this almost middle aged fall season, continues to deepen as each day goes by and winter grows nearer. Having this in mind, the time frame for this thread, looks like it could bring a storm, some kind of a storm, that may actually leave its mark on the autumn. Given the interpretation of what the ECMWF deterministic and EPS forecst teleconnections show, along with some foggy BSR support and EPS Emsemble Control MSLP output, one could argue for 2 possible storm scenarios for this time frame; cyclogenesis occuring near the US east coast from a piece of energy just offshore from the southeast coast, as the developing storm tracks N and/or NNE rouding the western periphery of the northern Atlantic ocean ridge OR a bowling ball type storm whose energy would come from the Pacific ocean entering the western US at a certain latitude and exiting the eastern US towards the Atlantic ocean at a more or less similar latitude. This second scenario, could end up being morphed into a clipper like system entering the US from the SW Canada region; Therefore, in other words, one scenario could lead to a more amplified storm and track, with some degree of blocking, whereas the other scenario, could allow for a progressive flow over the CONUS resulting in a less amplified storm track. In both cases, either GOMEX or Atlantic ocean moisture may aid in juicing up the storm. As the days go by, eventualy, we will favor one over the other as the noise and fog clears. Below, one can see the two possible scenarios outlined for this thread´s time frame. Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Teleconnections arguing for either scenario 1 or 2: ECMWF Deterministic: AO; suggesting possible availability of cold air. EPS telleconnections: AO suggesting availability of cold air. EPO suggesting pacific air presence; perhaps arguing for scenario 2. BSR support - shy and foggy: 500mb: Somewhat amplified. BSR surface, somewhat amplified, still possibly conveying a more progresive track.May be arguing for scenario 2. EPS Control Ensemble Control MSLP: This specific outcome argues for scenario 1. All in all looks pretty interesting and at least, a fun attempt at finding a storm to track that could yet make itself apparent on models in a more convincing fashion. So, pick your scenario and discuss.
  7. Looks like there is light at the end of the tunnel! Starting to narrow in on a pattern change following the October 10-12 storm / tropical system. Dare I say the end of the growing season? Maybe even a first snow for certain areas? FV3-GFS temperature anomalies. Obviously not accurate to the latter sections of the loop, but just goes to show the shift of the cold air mass. FV3-GFS 500 mb anomalies. Tropical systems look to play an important role. Usually when the forecast hour is under 200 (180 for the "safe" side) the overall scope is "accurate." At least I hope. . WPC Day 5 surface forecast. Beautiful, beautiful high pressure following in the wake of the storms. CPC Week 3-4 temperature probabilities. I'll drop this here to corroborate the "?" date.
  8. At last, it´s almost the time of the year the many come to love and enjoy, as the days get colder, and with that, the chance for the so acclaimed snow. This thread has been opened to allow for the discussion of the first cold front of the 2018 fall season. And when I say first, I mean literally, as the 12Z September 14th, 208 ECMWF output data projects a frontal passage to occur on September 22nd, 2018; the start of Fall. However, as it is known by many of us, this time line may be a bit atecipated or delayed. In case that happens, dates will be adjusted. Below, some ECMWF images will be posted to illustrate the topic at hand and give support to the enuncited coming cold bout. Now, if one disagrees with the word cold, it is alright, as what is cold for someone may not be someone else. We start off with the 10 meter wind output to illustrate the FROPA responsible to bring the first cold shot of the 2018 Fall season. On it, we can see the cold front by hour 192 [~ 8AM on Sptember 22nd], just off the coast of New Jersey and passing through southern Delmarva. This cold front should unleash the first significant colder air of the Fall season, and should be felt for approximately 3 days or so, especially considering how anomalous they would be, as the graphics below for hours 198, 222 and 240, respectively convey: The data above, tells us that the few following days after the FROPA, temperature anomalies will be ranging from -4F to -8F in most areas, and as much as -8F to -14F in some areas on higher terrain and New England. Taking those anomalous temperatures and interpreting them as the daily high and low temperatures for hours 216 and 240 [September 22nd and 23rd], we can better relate as they show on the images below, the high and low temperatures progged for the first two days of the 2018 Fall. Please take a look: As specific examples, please see the charts for a few selected major cities in the region: The charts above, eloquently illustrate how cool or cold the 2 meter air temperatures will be for the ending part of September. To conclude, I will leave you with data output from the ECMWF 12Z September 14th, related to the PNA and NAO telleconnections, as they seem to argue for a moderate yea probably transient, cold air intrusion into the region, as both are slightly in negative territory. Let´s see how the evolution of this progged colder air, the first of the Fall season, actually unfolds. Hopefully, the discussion will unfold to either disprove or consolidate this possible colder air blast. Continue on, folks.
  9. Pattern shift incoming! Must be a welcome sight for most here tired of endless heat and humidity... Just look at that temperature anomaly swing! 540 thickness even makes it into Maine! Been a long time since that has happened. Looping GIF to highlight the temperatures. Here are the temperature and dewpoints for Sunday morning. While still quite far out, it is a refreshing sight to see. There is light at the end of the tunnel. I'll throw in the ICON too, since temperatures seem to be its strong point. Circled in the next image is our cold airmass and the forecasted track. Next Cold Wave Thread:
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