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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

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Perfect Day

Found 12 results

  1. Introduction & Overall setup Hello everyone! By the time the possible event for this thread arrives, the region may have gone through the rains of a couple of Great Lakes cutter storms, or least warmer storms. As a result, some of you may be thinking to yourselves, where is the sleet. the snow? This thread is the platform to be used as an attempt to foment discussion, with the hope that answers, tracking, and analysis may lay credence to the possibility of a storm evolving and affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions, perhaps with wintry precipitation. On this thread´s opener post, we will take a look at a plethora of data in the form of images, that indicate, or at least hint at the possibility of a storm developing for the region. The data will be used as support to give weight to the thread and its idea as well as act as a foundation to the exchange of ideas and points of view on how this event may unfold. As is customary, the data presented my directly or indirectly support the envisioned weather event. For the last 4 days or so, observations made on many different sources of information, such as teleconnections, BSR, EPS Control MSLP output, EPS Mean H5 anomaly, EPS Mean 24-hour precipitation, CPC 8-14 day outlook, precipitation analogs, and many different NCEP GEFS and ESRL/PSD output, were very informative and as a result, led to this thread as a way to promote debate on this possible event. An overall look at the aforementioned data listed in the previous paragraph led me to formulate the illustration below as a mere description of this possible weather event. Please continue on to the next pages to see many different data observed for this event. BSR Depiction Surface representation signal does not look not that impressive. H5 signal is somewhat more promising. Surface: H5: NCEP Ensemble Mean outputs Looking at the images below, it´s possible to interpret that some kind of a progressive to a somewhat deeper storm may arise. MSLP / 1000-500mb THK North America 500mb Northern Hemisphere 500mb Precipitation location aspect and 850mb temperatures give us some hint that moisture could be available together with colder H85 temperatures. Precipitation & Standard Deviation 850mb Temperature Anomaly 850mb Normalized Anomaly ESRL/PSD products outputs: A different perspective given by the PSD outputs. But the same idea though, a possibility of a progressive to a somewhat deeper storm. SLP/1000-500mb thickness North America H5 heights Same idea as well, possible moisture available along with colder 850mb temperatures. 850MB Temperature Anomaly Precipitation, Mean & Standard Deviation Teleconnections: Teleconnection signals, for the most part, appear to be indicative of the idea of a progressive storm given unfavorable negative PNA state. However, given the transitioning state of some of the teleconnections more or less during this time frame, one could not throw out a somewhat more robust storm. Please see below ESRL/PSD, GEFS and EPS 46 days representations: ESRL/PSD GEFS: EPS: Precipitation Analogs & CPC Outlook Taking a look at the data below, one could see that some sort of storminess should be impacting the region as the precipitation analogs and CPC outlook suggest moisture availability in the region. Deterministic Precipitation GEFS Raw Ensemble Mean CPC 8-14 day Precipitation Outlook Interesting EPS Control MSLP runs: There have been many different runs over the last few days that hint at the possibility of a storm around this time frame, give or take a day or two. Please, we can see some of the most interesting ones. 12Z Nov 23, 2018 00Z Nov 24, 2018 12z Nov 24, 2018 12Z Nov 24, 2018 12Z Nov 25, 2018 As we know, nothing is etched in stone when it comes to the weather and the atmosphere. However, that is exactly what drives us to keep the faith that nice storms will come and go to satisfy our needs for excitement, snow and rain to replenish the reservoirs and simply to allow us to continue enjoying our favorite hobby or even profession. So, let the DISCO begin, and who knows we may be able to answer the question; Wintry Weather Returns? Have fun tracking and learning!
  2. Setup Description Northern stream Clipper with southern stream energy interaction Hello, folks. Quick thread opener here to allow for a place to discuss a possible clipper storm that may try to come in unnoticed and hits by surprise, if there are surprises these days in weather. Taking a look at the BSR closely, even though I imagine very few people would start a high percentage failure storm thread, it suggests that a clipper will be diving southeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, and at the same time there´s a hint of a bit of low-pressure energy/trof of low pressure from the southern stream tracking towards the SE CONUS. From what I gathered from the BSR images, is that there´s a possibility that these two pieces could join up and for a bigger storm or just stay separate and the region get a decaying clipper or just a regular clipper passing through. But in case there´s some kind of interaction with the southern stream energy, we could get something out of this. Granted, the BSR shows no full-blown storm, Actually, the signal is weak and on the 30th of November, quite confusing. Let´s see if this evolves or just falls apart, just before the bigger ticket item progged to hit the area between December 2-3. Supportive Data BSR In case this does not pan out, the thread will eventually fall to the bottom of the page. And if for some reason this is a fantasy possibility only or related to any other storm, we can act accordingly later. Will add more support to the opener later if there is any available.
  3. Hello, everyone! Right in the heels of the possible wintry Nov 24-25 storm, the region should be affected by a double barrel fall storm. This system should have tis first low pressure system track through the Tennessee valley to Ohio, and by then, a second low pressure system should develop near the Maryland coast. From there, we would eventually have a double barrel storm, as both lows track to the NE, one over the Great Lakes and the other towards Long Island or southern New England. Given the double barrel nature of the strom, this one should be a warmer storm, meaning there should be more rain than wintry precipitation for most of the region. However, even with this setup, frozen precipitation should not be ruled out in areas of the interior an dhigher elevations. Please see below, the latest 12Z EPS Control MSLP, Nov 18, 2018, as support to allow for the start of the discussion. Have fun posting your thougths and eventual observations. As for the lurkers, enjoy the reading.
  4. Hello, posters and lurkers! It seems that we could get another storm for the east coast before November 2018 is out. Overall main players are the continued active southern stream branch, GOMEX, and SW Atlantic moisture, possible northern stream branch involvement, and the usual presence or lack of High-pressure system over SE Canada acting as the source of cold air, and even possibly blocking the conditions. Basic setup - the low-pressure system should start to develop and gather moisture over the GOMEX and then track over eastern parts of the SE CONUS or track over Florida and then NE or ENE towards the higher latitudes to eastern Maine or southeast Canada. Details such as high-pressure location, northern stream interaction and depth of cold air or lack thereof, will need to be ironed out little by little as this time frame draws near. Please see below an image illustrating the basic setup for this possible storm. Now, onwards to the support data; EPS Control MSLP, BSR and GFS, GEFS, ECMWF and EPS teleconnections (AO, NAO, PNA and EPO) Model Guidance 12Z EPS Control MSLP - 11/12/18 00Z EPS Control MSLP - 11/13/18 Bearing Sea Rule 11/23/18 12Z through 11/27/18 00Z : Teleconnections: GFS AO, NAO, EPO, and PNA, respectively: GEFS - AO and NAO; only these were available at the time of this post creation) ECMWF Teleconection info: (Data from weathermodels.com) AO - ~ -3.3 trending positive NAO - ~ -2.9 stable EPO - ~ +1.3 trending negative PNA - ~ -0.5 slow trend positive EPS Teleconection info: (Data from weathermodels.com) AO - ~ -2.7 stable NAO - ~ -1.4 stable EPO - ~ -0.2 slow trend negative PNA - ~ +1.5 slow trend positive All in all, given the EPS control signal, BSR support for a nearby storm and most of the teleconnections in a favorable status, it seems that the odds for an east coast storm are decent, be it over land east of the Appalachians or just offshore. We will see how all this will evolve, and when the time comes, if there will actually be a storm and where it will track. Have fun discussion!
  5. Next in a series of systems looks to move in at this time frame. It’s a cut off low type system and could have lots of moisture associated with it. Areas around S ON should be able to pick up some accumulation from this and areas further east in NB could see heavy amounts of snow from the system as it continues on its track. Here are some model runs from today GFS GFS Snow map CMC CMC Snow map 12k NAM 12k NAM Snow map
  6. Another in a series of systems should be tracking into the region around this time frame. There is more cold air out in front of the low so looks to be a better chance for accumulating snow for several areas including around the GTA. Here are some images from the latest model runs. GFS Snow map NAM is further east GEM is the furthest west This system definitely needs to be watched as I think it has good potential for accumulating snow for some areas that haven’t got any yet.
  7. Trying out what knorthern knight suggested about starting storm threads in the main forum section instead of the regional discussion threads. Anyways, looks like a system will be tracking into ON and then heading out east during this time frame. It’s the first of several opportunities for areas to see there first snowfall of the season. The pattern is turning colder for the next while with a train of systems tracking in and around the east. We’ll start with this one and go from there. Some areas should see snow from this. Areas around the lake shore might still be too warm for accumulations but some areas away from the lake shore will likely see some accumulation out of this system. Next system has the potential for more widespread snows. Lots to keep an eye on.
  8. Looks like there is light at the end of the tunnel! Starting to narrow in on a pattern change following the October 10-12 storm / tropical system. Dare I say the end of the growing season? Maybe even a first snow for certain areas? FV3-GFS temperature anomalies. Obviously not accurate to the latter sections of the loop, but just goes to show the shift of the cold air mass. FV3-GFS 500 mb anomalies. Tropical systems look to play an important role. Usually when the forecast hour is under 200 (180 for the "safe" side) the overall scope is "accurate." At least I hope. . WPC Day 5 surface forecast. Beautiful, beautiful high pressure following in the wake of the storms. CPC Week 3-4 temperature probabilities. I'll drop this here to corroborate the "?" date.
  9. As a more trofy pattern starts to develop over the Northeastern CONUS and to some extent pver the Mid-Atlantic as well, the region becomes susceptable to precipitation, be it rain or snow, resultant from the so called Clippers. Some of these small weather makers, at times bring measurable precipitation and at other times can even develop into decent coastal storms for Long Island and New England. It seems that a clipper may indeed try to at least grace the region, especially the northern portions of the area, with precipitation in the form of rain and even some snow, as the clipper enters the region coming from the Great Lakes into westen NY and tracks toward northern New Jersey and then may try to deepen just south of Long Island and then get stronger just off the New Englando coast. As a result, precipitation will fall across the area, and could be enhanced should a coastal forms. That could then, allow some snowfall for some areas of New England. Please the latest ECMWF depiction of the this possible event: Please contribute to this discussion with your welcomed thoughts.
  10. Solstice

    Harbingers of Winter | Part 1

    Hey all! Been a while since I added an entry. Hopefully I should be able to get back to regular posting before autumn starts to really ramp up. So I was looking outside my window and did a double take - yellow leaves?! This is on a birch tree (Betula lenta / Black Birch). Quite surprising! I did cherry-pick the most yellow branch, but this is not an isolated occurrence. Numerous birch trees are starting to "turn". Some may bring up the point of stress causing this rapid change, but considering the amount of trees that have started to "turn," and the fact that my location is at 85% of its monthly precipitation with 10 days left, I think that can be ruled out. From a bit of memory I do think that this is usual for the tree, but not 100% sure on it. Let's see if any more harbingers of winter can surface during the upcoming cold wave!
  11. At last, it´s almost the time of the year the many come to love and enjoy, as the days get colder, and with that, the chance for the so acclaimed snow. This thread has been opened to allow for the discussion of the first cold front of the 2018 fall season. And when I say first, I mean literally, as the 12Z September 14th, 208 ECMWF output data projects a frontal passage to occur on September 22nd, 2018; the start of Fall. However, as it is known by many of us, this time line may be a bit atecipated or delayed. In case that happens, dates will be adjusted. Below, some ECMWF images will be posted to illustrate the topic at hand and give support to the enuncited coming cold bout. Now, if one disagrees with the word cold, it is alright, as what is cold for someone may not be someone else. We start off with the 10 meter wind output to illustrate the FROPA responsible to bring the first cold shot of the 2018 Fall season. On it, we can see the cold front by hour 192 [~ 8AM on Sptember 22nd], just off the coast of New Jersey and passing through southern Delmarva. This cold front should unleash the first significant colder air of the Fall season, and should be felt for approximately 3 days or so, especially considering how anomalous they would be, as the graphics below for hours 198, 222 and 240, respectively convey: The data above, tells us that the few following days after the FROPA, temperature anomalies will be ranging from -4F to -8F in most areas, and as much as -8F to -14F in some areas on higher terrain and New England. Taking those anomalous temperatures and interpreting them as the daily high and low temperatures for hours 216 and 240 [September 22nd and 23rd], we can better relate as they show on the images below, the high and low temperatures progged for the first two days of the 2018 Fall. Please take a look: As specific examples, please see the charts for a few selected major cities in the region: The charts above, eloquently illustrate how cool or cold the 2 meter air temperatures will be for the ending part of September. To conclude, I will leave you with data output from the ECMWF 12Z September 14th, related to the PNA and NAO telleconnections, as they seem to argue for a moderate yea probably transient, cold air intrusion into the region, as both are slightly in negative territory. Let´s see how the evolution of this progged colder air, the first of the Fall season, actually unfolds. Hopefully, the discussion will unfold to either disprove or consolidate this possible colder air blast. Continue on, folks.
  12. Hello posters. The region should get another shot of chilly to colder air for about two days on September 30th and October 1st. High temperatures look to be pretty cool and night time lows could be considered cold. Dew point temperatures also look to to be low enough to avoid the existence of humidity and that tropical feel to the air. Below a few images related to daily high, daily low temperatures and dew point temeratures, respectively. All September 25th 00Z ECMWF for 18Z on September 30th and 0ctober 1st. Daily high temperatures: With this, the region get a couple of more days of Fall weather as Fall slowly but surely fights off the warmer air mass, and this way creeps into the region.
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