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White Christmas?

Tracking latest odds and possible events for the holidays

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Perfect Day

Found 3 results

  1. Introduction & Overall setup Hello everyone! By the time the possible event for this thread arrives, the region may have gone through the rains of a couple of Great Lakes cutter storms, or least warmer storms. As a result, some of you may be thinking to yourselves, where is the sleet. the snow? This thread is the platform to be used as an attempt to foment discussion, with the hope that answers, tracking, and analysis may lay credence to the possibility of a storm evolving and affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions, perhaps with wintry precipitation. On this thread´s opener post, we will take a look at a plethora of data in the form of images, that indicate, or at least hint at the possibility of a storm developing for the region. The data will be used as support to give weight to the thread and its idea as well as act as a foundation to the exchange of ideas and points of view on how this event may unfold. As is customary, the data presented my directly or indirectly support the envisioned weather event. For the last 4 days or so, observations made on many different sources of information, such as teleconnections, BSR, EPS Control MSLP output, EPS Mean H5 anomaly, EPS Mean 24-hour precipitation, CPC 8-14 day outlook, precipitation analogs, and many different NCEP GEFS and ESRL/PSD output, were very informative and as a result, led to this thread as a way to promote debate on this possible event. An overall look at the aforementioned data listed in the previous paragraph led me to formulate the illustration below as a mere description of this possible weather event. Please continue on to the next pages to see many different data observed for this event. BSR Depiction Surface representation signal does not look not that impressive. H5 signal is somewhat more promising. Surface: H5: NCEP Ensemble Mean outputs Looking at the images below, it´s possible to interpret that some kind of a progressive to a somewhat deeper storm may arise. MSLP / 1000-500mb THK North America 500mb Northern Hemisphere 500mb Precipitation location aspect and 850mb temperatures give us some hint that moisture could be available together with colder H85 temperatures. Precipitation & Standard Deviation 850mb Temperature Anomaly 850mb Normalized Anomaly ESRL/PSD products outputs: A different perspective given by the PSD outputs. But the same idea though, a possibility of a progressive to a somewhat deeper storm. SLP/1000-500mb thickness North America H5 heights Same idea as well, possible moisture available along with colder 850mb temperatures. 850MB Temperature Anomaly Precipitation, Mean & Standard Deviation Teleconnections: Teleconnection signals, for the most part, appear to be indicative of the idea of a progressive storm given unfavorable negative PNA state. However, given the transitioning state of some of the teleconnections more or less during this time frame, one could not throw out a somewhat more robust storm. Please see below ESRL/PSD, GEFS and EPS 46 days representations: ESRL/PSD GEFS: EPS: Precipitation Analogs & CPC Outlook Taking a look at the data below, one could see that some sort of storminess should be impacting the region as the precipitation analogs and CPC outlook suggest moisture availability in the region. Deterministic Precipitation GEFS Raw Ensemble Mean CPC 8-14 day Precipitation Outlook Interesting EPS Control MSLP runs: There have been many different runs over the last few days that hint at the possibility of a storm around this time frame, give or take a day or two. Please, we can see some of the most interesting ones. 12Z Nov 23, 2018 00Z Nov 24, 2018 12z Nov 24, 2018 12Z Nov 24, 2018 12Z Nov 25, 2018 As we know, nothing is etched in stone when it comes to the weather and the atmosphere. However, that is exactly what drives us to keep the faith that nice storms will come and go to satisfy our needs for excitement, snow and rain to replenish the reservoirs and simply to allow us to continue enjoying our favorite hobby or even profession. So, let the DISCO begin, and who knows we may be able to answer the question; Wintry Weather Returns? Have fun tracking and learning!
  2. Hello, posters and lurkers! It seems that we could get another storm for the east coast before November 2018 is out. Overall main players are the continued active southern stream branch, GOMEX, and SW Atlantic moisture, possible northern stream branch involvement, and the usual presence or lack of High-pressure system over SE Canada acting as the source of cold air, and even possibly blocking the conditions. Basic setup - the low-pressure system should start to develop and gather moisture over the GOMEX and then track over eastern parts of the SE CONUS or track over Florida and then NE or ENE towards the higher latitudes to eastern Maine or southeast Canada. Details such as high-pressure location, northern stream interaction and depth of cold air or lack thereof, will need to be ironed out little by little as this time frame draws near. Please see below an image illustrating the basic setup for this possible storm. Now, onwards to the support data; EPS Control MSLP, BSR and GFS, GEFS, ECMWF and EPS teleconnections (AO, NAO, PNA and EPO) Model Guidance 12Z EPS Control MSLP - 11/12/18 00Z EPS Control MSLP - 11/13/18 Bearing Sea Rule 11/23/18 12Z through 11/27/18 00Z : Teleconnections: GFS AO, NAO, EPO, and PNA, respectively: GEFS - AO and NAO; only these were available at the time of this post creation) ECMWF Teleconection info: (Data from weathermodels.com) AO - ~ -3.3 trending positive NAO - ~ -2.9 stable EPO - ~ +1.3 trending negative PNA - ~ -0.5 slow trend positive EPS Teleconection info: (Data from weathermodels.com) AO - ~ -2.7 stable NAO - ~ -1.4 stable EPO - ~ -0.2 slow trend negative PNA - ~ +1.5 slow trend positive All in all, given the EPS control signal, BSR support for a nearby storm and most of the teleconnections in a favorable status, it seems that the odds for an east coast storm are decent, be it over land east of the Appalachians or just offshore. We will see how all this will evolve, and when the time comes, if there will actually be a storm and where it will track. Have fun discussion!
  3. Hello posters and lurkers; Recently, the Mid Atlantic and Northeast CONUS regions have been influenced by a rather stormy pattern, with consective FROPAs passing through the region and still progged to pass through. These FROPAs bring along with them trofs to the region as the cold fronts depart, and these same trofs can allow for storms to form and affect the region, either as coastal storms, coastal huggers, inland runners, etc. Each trof that swings by the region, therefore, helps to cool down the atmosphere and the surface with the cooler and colder air that accompany them. and as a direct result, progressively increase the snow fall cover over SE Canada and nothern areas of upstate NY and New England, especially over the higher terrain. This evolution of the colder cycle of the northern hemisphere in this almost middle aged fall season, continues to deepen as each day goes by and winter grows nearer. Having this in mind, the time frame for this thread, looks like it could bring a storm, some kind of a storm, that may actually leave its mark on the autumn. Given the interpretation of what the ECMWF deterministic and EPS forecst teleconnections show, along with some foggy BSR support and EPS Emsemble Control MSLP output, one could argue for 2 possible storm scenarios for this time frame; cyclogenesis occuring near the US east coast from a piece of energy just offshore from the southeast coast, as the developing storm tracks N and/or NNE rouding the western periphery of the northern Atlantic ocean ridge OR a bowling ball type storm whose energy would come from the Pacific ocean entering the western US at a certain latitude and exiting the eastern US towards the Atlantic ocean at a more or less similar latitude. This second scenario, could end up being morphed into a clipper like system entering the US from the SW Canada region; Therefore, in other words, one scenario could lead to a more amplified storm and track, with some degree of blocking, whereas the other scenario, could allow for a progressive flow over the CONUS resulting in a less amplified storm track. In both cases, either GOMEX or Atlantic ocean moisture may aid in juicing up the storm. As the days go by, eventualy, we will favor one over the other as the noise and fog clears. Below, one can see the two possible scenarios outlined for this thread´s time frame. Scenario 1: Scenario 2: Teleconnections arguing for either scenario 1 or 2: ECMWF Deterministic: AO; suggesting possible availability of cold air. EPS telleconnections: AO suggesting availability of cold air. EPO suggesting pacific air presence; perhaps arguing for scenario 2. BSR support - shy and foggy: 500mb: Somewhat amplified. BSR surface, somewhat amplified, still possibly conveying a more progresive track.May be arguing for scenario 2. EPS Control Ensemble Control MSLP: This specific outcome argues for scenario 1. All in all looks pretty interesting and at least, a fun attempt at finding a storm to track that could yet make itself apparent on models in a more convincing fashion. So, pick your scenario and discuss.
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