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Found 7 results

  1. Introduction The winter 2018/19 is coming to an end as we approach its official last 30 days. But the question remains, can the region as a whole, or at least the snow-starved I-95 corridor from Philadelphia to Boston and areas about 50 miles inland from I95, get the storm they have been waiting for? Well, as of the time this thread is launched, that answer will be as slippery as the I95 covered with an ice accretion of 0.75 inch itself. But do not let that bring you down for next on the list of the noticeably legitimate storm threats, is the March 2nd through March 5th time frame. Within this time frame, the region (Mid-Atlantic & Northeast) should expect to be affected by a winter storm of possibly decent proportion. as it's well known, it´s obviously too difficult to determine 10 to 12 days out, which areas of the whole region will be most affected and with what kind of inclement weather. So please, analyze the data provided by model guidance, NWS offices, and the WPC, each day that passes. This way you will surely be prepared and eventually be aware of the kind of impacts this potential storm would have and where the impacts will be most felt. As a starting guide and attempt at shedding some light on the possible storm potential for this time frame, this thread will provide relevant different data outputs from the ESRL/PSD Map Room site as well as varied EPS outputs, so you, the reader, the lurker and even the posters, may start to think up different scenarios and possible outcomes for this time frame, and this way enrich the thread and the community with a plethora of unlikely, likely and even viable end game solutions. To kick start this discussion, let it be known that model guidance such as the GFS, which will be retired in 30 days on March 20th 2019, the FV3 GFS, which will be promoted to the main NCEP operational global model on March 20th, 2019, have been showing on and off on different runs the idea of a interesting storm for this time frame. on different runs for a while now. Furthermore, the EPS and it´s control have hinted at a storm affecting the region as well albeit all the mentioned guidance still do not present a coherent and continuing run to run consistency. That consistency is quite elusive as we well know, especially during this winter season given how the pattern has run the show. Storm Track Scenarios So, what to expect? Well, the usual suspects. Rain, snow, wind, wintry mix and lots of guidance variability in search of fine-tuning the eventual outcome. We should expect a storm, perhaps, tracking from Texas to central NY state as the northern track boundary and as the southern track boundary a storm coming from Florida, either from the panhandle or from its NE coast, being possibly exciting enough to trigger the so wondrous JAX rule. On the next page, EPS and ESRL/PSD data can be found as to allow you to judge whether or not this time frame holds any hope, or potential, if you will. ESRL/PSD Map Room Data First off, the H5 Northern Hemisphere view data from NCEP and PSD for the time frame in analysis. It gives this time frame some good support given what is shown; a possible ridge out west and a robust trough over the eastern CONUS connected to the arctic cold source. As we continue, the next data piece of evidence is the PSD 4 teleconnection indices panel. On it, we see that around this time frame the PNA should be positive, the NAO should be switching from negative to positive and the EPO should be decently negative. These signals, although not 100% awesome, would indeed give support to a colder storm on the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS for the time frame under the microscope. And to finalize the ESRL/PSD Map Room contribution, we see below the deterministic precipitation from analogs for the time frame from February 27th through March 6th, which obviously encompasses this thread´s time frame. Now, let´s switch sources and look at the EPS data. EPS Data Looking higher up away from the surface, we see below, the H5 North America view data from the EPS for the relevant time frame. Notice that it is hinting at a pretty strong and amplified trough over the eastern CONUS while a rather pronounced ridge is located over the western CONUS and Alaska. That makes me think of that rather strong negative EPO aforementioned in this thread. This setup hinted by the EPS, in case it verifies, may be pretty fruitful. Now coming back down to the surface, the EPS continues to hint at the good potential that the H5 setup above suggests. Surface analysis shows lower pressures developing over Florida and then continuing to evolve NNE´ward towards northern New England and into the Canadian Maritimes. Both the MSLP and MSLP anomaly products display the same idea. And to complement, below one can see how the moisture plume associated with the lower pressure shown above evolves and behaves over the region. Bundling all what as shown in the thread opener together, one may come to the conclusion that the March 2nd - 5th time frame, does indeed show a legitimate good potential. So, as always, discuss, discover, participate, read and enrich the thread and the community with your theories, ideas, and conclusions. Perhaps this one will be the one for you...
  2. Nor´easter always deserves its own thread. So, let´s then, discuss here how this one went from a weak disorganized almost completely out to sea mess to a mature and well-versed Nor´easter by the time it reaches eastern southern New England. Here we will tell the history of the 2019 Nor´easter that went from Fledgling to Full-fledged before our very eyes. The NAM is showing this little Nor´easter strength-wise, to look quite well structured. Perhaps it will strengthen a bit fast. February 28, 2019 00Z NAM looks very nice.
  3. PREFACE NOVEL - Perfume & Blizzard, a war of seasons The time has come for winter to take revenge on those who have dismissed it, laughed at it and wanted to replace it with Spring. Winter intends to show those that mocked it, who roars in February is still the lord of ice and snow, the lord of blizzards; Lord Winter Solstice. To make that roar loud and clear, a Nor´easter shall humble those who intended to start a coup in favor of the lord of fragrance and flowers; Lord Spring Equinox. Taken by rage, Lord Spring Equinox warns Lord Winter Solstice that it has the ability to deploy one of its Atlantic Ocean´s soldiers, the SE Ridge to flood the eastern seaboard with its warm air to offset one of Lord Winter Solstice´s most beloved weapon, the snow. Keeping that in mind, all those beings being kept hostage to this power struggle, the people of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast CONUS, become aware that the SE ridge is a force to be reckoned with and that it should not be neglected or forgotten. It needs to be watched every step of the way to see if it will be able to further Lord Spring Equinox´s influence over the region and keep Lord Winter Solstice´s loyal subjects in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast apprehended under the most severe punishment of all, warm air in winter with no snow. But we all know that Lord Winter Solstice, although beaten down since December by a hostile rogue split flow pattern, not being able to count on one of its most loyal soldiers, the -NAO, which has been kidnapped by its evil twin the +NAO for many months now, will strive to make a come back and avenge all those involved with this Lord Spring Equinox led coup, as well as in the process, be able to count on the Greenland blocking, another of Lord Winter Solstice´s loyal member, the royal guard gatekeeper which has been unable to manifest itself due to the poisoning of the atmospheric flow over North America by many masked unrevealed Lord Spring Equinox supports. Acting out of deep fear and staunch resolution that there should not be Spring during Winter´s reign time, Lord Winter Solstice´s bountiful supports in and around the frontline, resort to consulting and interpreting while trying to trust the world most famous group of seers; weather prophets called: Weather Guidance Model Operational & Ensemble Association aka WGMOEA. Lord Winter Solstice´s supporter hopes rest on the shoulders of the WGMOEA as they yearn for most needed support and good news from the weather seers that Lord Winter Solstice and its loyal soldiers will be able to fight back and squash the ongoing coup by releasing the frontline from Lord Spring Equinox´s oppressive untimely rule using Lord Winter Solstice´s most powerful weapon, the Blizzard. They hope, they say, that the Blizzard with its frostbiting winds, heavy wind-driven snows, thunderous snowfall, and deep low surface pressure, can prevail and hence the frontline finally rejoice with a celebration at Lord Winter Solstice´s, whose nickname is P. Master, headquarters located in Long Island, NY. Please see the next page for some images provided by the WGMOEA of the future of this battle. Possible Battle Outcomes WGMOEA Depictions A different take on this thread starter post. Hopefully, a good outcome is the final result from this battle.
  4. PREFACE Getting past the January 20th time frame and storm, there are indications that a cold air invasion is becoming more and more apparent for the eastern CONUS as we fast approach the last 10 days of January. With that in mind and considering that the southern stream over the CONUS should continue to be actively keeping the GOMEX rich moisture content available to be lifted and gathered for storm formation, I see a rather good opportunity for a storm to impact the region, which would include the Mid-Atlantic and even New England depending on how amplified the storm becomes. For a more amplified storm to come to be, we need a solid set of teleconnections (AO, EPO, NAO, and PNA) and the development of Greenland into North Pole blocking, or at least a Greenland block. Given the actual data available from the EPS 46 days and EPS products, the January 24-26 time frame, would benefit from a mostly solid teleconnection package and perhaps the advent of a Greenland into North Pole blocking. The blocking though, may not be totally established yet during this time frame, but by the end of January, it could be the big boss in town. Long range operational model signals do exist for a storm in this time frame, but as I usually do, I try to avoid using the operational model storm signals for possibilities that are in the 12 to 16 days in the future time frame for the thread openers, instead relying on the ensemble guidance signals or other longer range weekly or monthly models. Given that some operational models present "forecasts" or outputs for 15 to 16 days out, I use that range as my limit to consider opening a storm thread, to avoid turning the thread into a long-range pattern discussion thread. Overall Set up Continued southern stream activity with ample GOMEX moisture to be tapped and lifted along with deeper cold air presence perhaps with a high-pressure presence and CAD development. Teleconnection robust package, possible initial developing stages of Greenland blocking, aiding in a more teemed northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Track-wise, we could have one of the 3 most traditional tracks, the western/central PA cutter track, the northern Mid-Atlantic tucked to the coast track and the beloved benchmark track. Which track would be the verified one come the time frame, would be determined in good part by the depth of the cold air in place, blocking high-pressure placement, possible phasing time, if one ever comes to be, and interestingly enough, whatever influence the initial development stages of the Greenland block would have on this time frame, if any at all. Most of these mentioned can certainly be a result of how strong the teleconnection package for this time frame is. Below, an image showing the 3 possible storm tracks can be seen. Storm Track Visual Aid Before we move on the next page, on which you will be able to see the forecasted EPS North American and Northern Hemisphere setup, the EPS 46-days teleconnections and EPS precipitation output for this time frame, I would like to finish this page, with a couple of EPS control runs images and an very interesting, perhaps surprising to some, seasonal CFS MSLP output for this time frame. CFS Surface Pressure It´s very intriguing or interesting to me at least, that very robust storm would be shown on the CFS at such a time range, near the time frame that this thread discusses. It´s a neat piece of information or perhaps, let´s say evidence. Jan 9th, 2019 12Z EPS CONTROL (tucked and benchmark track hybrid) Jan 10th, 2019 00Z EPS CONTROL (western PA track hybrid) On the next page, you will see additional data related to this time frame. To start off this page, please see the Northern Hemisphere and North America set up for the time frame in discussion. January 7th, 2019, 00Z EPS 46 day Northern Hemisphere North America There´s no way to look at this setup and be indifferent to it. That argues for a real winter over the eastern CONUS. We can see the lower heights over northern Canada connect to the lower heights over the SE CONUS, setting up a deep negatively oriented trough over eastern North America, and the developing Greenland block. All that if were to verify, would translate to a much colder eastern United States and a much more promising storm track from the southeast to northeast CONUS with the less progressive component courtesy of the Greenland blocking. As we continue, you can see below the EPS 24-hour precipitation for the time frame in discussion. Jan 9th, 2019 12Z Jan 10th, 2019 00Z And now the EPS 46-days teleconnections (AO, EPO, NAO, and PNA) AO EPO There is not much to argue concerning this EPS AO/EPO combo as it relates to the time frame. Both teleconnections are in their negative state, which is primordial for the availability of a strong and more sustained cold air presence over the eastern CONUS. The -AO is around -1.5 to -1.7 while the -EPO is around -1.3 to -1.5, which is the most negative it has been in recent weeks. We like this. NAO PNA This combo, the way I interpret it, looks very promising and supportive of a storm track that could deliver the wintry goods and be more amplified, and perhaps not so quick to exit the region. The -NAO can lay a hand in allowing blocking conditions over the eastern areas of North America while the +PNA would argue for a ridge over the western US and depending on how it interacts with the -EPO aforementioned, a deeper colder trough could pass through the eastern US. Notice that the -PNA is in positive to negative trajectory during the time frame in discussion, and flips to negative sometime around January 28th. That changing magnitude could play a positive role in the flow pattern. Given the data, this time frame looks like it has more robust aspects to it to allow the region to at least have a better shot at a wintry storm that may impact areas that are snowless since November, What do you guys think? Does this one have a standing chance? Or is it another dream only reality? Later! UPDATES: Jan 11th, 2018 January 10th, 2019, 00Z EPS 46 day Northern Hemisphere North America January 10th, 2019, 00Z EPS 46 day AO EPO This combo has suffered a blow and is weaker now as compared to the January 7th run. The -AO continues pretty solid. However, the EPO has changed to neutral to slightly negative. Before on the 7th of January, it was decently in a negative state. NAO PNA This combo also has suffered from changes. Although the NAO continues to be negative, it is not as negative as compared to the output from the January 7th run. As for the PNA, it went from a more solid positive state to a slightly positive state, basically neutral and flat. We will see how this evolves on the next update scheduled to occur on January 14th, 2019.
  5. Preface Hello, posters and lurkers! Perhaps this thread will inject some optimism in us all and cheer your souls up a bit as I believe we have a decent shot at getting the first real winter storm of the now, official winter season 2018/19. What has intrigued me and helped me make up my mind was the impressive BSR data for this time frame, as so far there has been no operational model support for this time frame which is about 18 days away. Overall Setup Simply put, as we have seen so far this season many times, the southern stream should be continuing to do its dirty and beneficial work, keeping energy running near the GOMEX to be tapped or let´s say, excited. Meanwhile, the northern stream may be doing some work across the US central plains, and as a result, may be attractive enough to excite the southern stream to perhaps accept to dance a very classical tango. In addition to that, I expect some sort of high-pressure complex to be floating around from north of the central Great Lakes to northeast of Maine, perhaps bridging with the north-central Atlantic ridge and considering that this will be early January, this high-pressure complex should be more robust millibars wise. In short, these players would need to form a smooth orchestra, to translate the BSR depiction into a cold wintry storm. But in case the orchestra fails to be fine-tuned, then the BSR can still verify, but deliver liquid H20 instead. Moving along, please see below the BSR depiction for this time frame; both 500 mb and surface. It´s pretty impressive and should serve as a real good test of this marvelous forecasting tool. Bearing Sea Rule Surface 500mb This BSR depiction is highly impressive by itself. And if it did not depend on anything else, especially the teleconnections, one could say that a big and powerful storm is coming. But since the weather does not work like this, we will need to take a look at the teleconnections and see if this BSR depiction has an even better chance of actually coming to fruition. Next, let´s go check on some teleconnections. Below, we can take a look at the Dec 17, 20018 00Z EPS 46 days AO, EPO, NAO, and PNA. AO EPO NAO PNA As one interprets the data above, we see: AO = ~ 0.3 negative (supportive) EPO = ~ 0.7 positive (not supportive) [However, not as positive as many instances during the last few weeks] NAO = ~ 0.3-0.2 negative, approaching neutrality (supportive) PNA = ~ 0.3 positive, having just flipped from negative to positive (supportive) All in all, there is teleconnection support for the BSR. The weakened state of the positive EPO should technically prevent a flood of warmer air. Therefore, allow for the presence of cold air to some degree. The highlight then is the flipping negative PNA to a positive PNA and the weaker positive EPO. Let´s see how this one turns out to be. As the days passe, and more data becomes available, I will be updating this thread opener with more information to give support to the BSR for this time frame, and enrich the depth of the thread. Hope to see some good ideas and discussions in here from all of you.
  6. Introduction & Overall setup Hello everyone! By the time the possible event for this thread arrives, the region may have gone through the rains of a couple of Great Lakes cutter storms, or least warmer storms. As a result, some of you may be thinking to yourselves, where is the sleet. the snow? This thread is the platform to be used as an attempt to foment discussion, with the hope that answers, tracking, and analysis may lay credence to the possibility of a storm evolving and affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions, perhaps with wintry precipitation. On this thread´s opener post, we will take a look at a plethora of data in the form of images, that indicate, or at least hint at the possibility of a storm developing for the region. The data will be used as support to give weight to the thread and its idea as well as act as a foundation to the exchange of ideas and points of view on how this event may unfold. As is customary, the data presented my directly or indirectly support the envisioned weather event. For the last 4 days or so, observations made on many different sources of information, such as teleconnections, BSR, EPS Control MSLP output, EPS Mean H5 anomaly, EPS Mean 24-hour precipitation, CPC 8-14 day outlook, precipitation analogs, and many different NCEP GEFS and ESRL/PSD output, were very informative and as a result, led to this thread as a way to promote debate on this possible event. An overall look at the aforementioned data listed in the previous paragraph led me to formulate the illustration below as a mere description of this possible weather event. Please continue on to the next pages to see many different data observed for this event. BSR Depiction Surface representation signal does not look not that impressive. H5 signal is somewhat more promising. Surface: H5: NCEP Ensemble Mean outputs Looking at the images below, it´s possible to interpret that some kind of a progressive to a somewhat deeper storm may arise. MSLP / 1000-500mb THK North America 500mb Northern Hemisphere 500mb Precipitation location aspect and 850mb temperatures give us some hint that moisture could be available together with colder H85 temperatures. Precipitation & Standard Deviation 850mb Temperature Anomaly 850mb Normalized Anomaly ESRL/PSD products outputs: A different perspective given by the PSD outputs. But the same idea though, a possibility of a progressive to a somewhat deeper storm. SLP/1000-500mb thickness North America H5 heights Same idea as well, possible moisture available along with colder 850mb temperatures. 850MB Temperature Anomaly Precipitation, Mean & Standard Deviation Teleconnections: Teleconnection signals, for the most part, appear to be indicative of the idea of a progressive storm given unfavorable negative PNA state. However, given the transitioning state of some of the teleconnections more or less during this time frame, one could not throw out a somewhat more robust storm. Please see below ESRL/PSD, GEFS and EPS 46 days representations: ESRL/PSD GEFS: EPS: Precipitation Analogs & CPC Outlook Taking a look at the data below, one could see that some sort of storminess should be impacting the region as the precipitation analogs and CPC outlook suggest moisture availability in the region. Deterministic Precipitation GEFS Raw Ensemble Mean CPC 8-14 day Precipitation Outlook Interesting EPS Control MSLP runs: There have been many different runs over the last few days that hint at the possibility of a storm around this time frame, give or take a day or two. Please, we can see some of the most interesting ones. 12Z Nov 23, 2018 00Z Nov 24, 2018 12z Nov 24, 2018 12Z Nov 24, 2018 12Z Nov 25, 2018 As we know, nothing is etched in stone when it comes to the weather and the atmosphere. However, that is exactly what drives us to keep the faith that nice storms will come and go to satisfy our needs for excitement, snow and rain to replenish the reservoirs and simply to allow us to continue enjoying our favorite hobby or even profession. So, let the DISCO begin, and who knows we may be able to answer the question; Wintry Weather Returns? Have fun tracking and learning!
  7. Hello, posters and lurkers! It seems that we could get another storm for the east coast before November 2018 is out. Overall main players are the continued active southern stream branch, GOMEX, and SW Atlantic moisture, possible northern stream branch involvement, and the usual presence or lack of High-pressure system over SE Canada acting as the source of cold air, and even possibly blocking the conditions. Basic setup - the low-pressure system should start to develop and gather moisture over the GOMEX and then track over eastern parts of the SE CONUS or track over Florida and then NE or ENE towards the higher latitudes to eastern Maine or southeast Canada. Details such as high-pressure location, northern stream interaction and depth of cold air or lack thereof, will need to be ironed out little by little as this time frame draws near. Please see below an image illustrating the basic setup for this possible storm. Now, onwards to the support data; EPS Control MSLP, BSR and GFS, GEFS, ECMWF and EPS teleconnections (AO, NAO, PNA and EPO) Model Guidance 12Z EPS Control MSLP - 11/12/18 00Z EPS Control MSLP - 11/13/18 Bearing Sea Rule 11/23/18 12Z through 11/27/18 00Z : Teleconnections: GFS AO, NAO, EPO, and PNA, respectively: GEFS - AO and NAO; only these were available at the time of this post creation) ECMWF Teleconection info: (Data from weathermodels.com) AO - ~ -3.3 trending positive NAO - ~ -2.9 stable EPO - ~ +1.3 trending negative PNA - ~ -0.5 slow trend positive EPS Teleconection info: (Data from weathermodels.com) AO - ~ -2.7 stable NAO - ~ -1.4 stable EPO - ~ -0.2 slow trend negative PNA - ~ +1.5 slow trend positive All in all, given the EPS control signal, BSR support for a nearby storm and most of the teleconnections in a favorable status, it seems that the odds for an east coast storm are decent, be it over land east of the Appalachians or just offshore. We will see how all this will evolve, and when the time comes, if there will actually be a storm and where it will track. Have fun discussion!
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