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Showing results for tags 'polar air'.
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Well, looking at the temperatures, thought I might toss a ring into the temperature hat. We haven't had really extreme cold this year (except the November blast, but that was relative to the time of year). At the moment it looks significant enough to warrant its own thread, even for such a short timeframe. CPC shows some temperature hazards. Another CPC map - this time just temperatures. 12z ICON 2m temperatures. It's a trash can, but I believe it is pretty good with temperatures. Bitter cold. 12z GFS 2m temperatures. Not as extreme as the ICON, but still very, very cold. GFS 2m temperature trend. Have to go back quite far to find any warm air. Even if it is luck, that's pretty astounding. 12z FV3 2m temperatures. More extreme than the GFS. 12z GEM 2m temperatures. This one looks tame compared to the others. 12z JMA 850 mb anomalies. Big blob of purple. 12z ECMWF 850 mb anomalies. Another big blob of purple. Alright, enough hype. First things first, let's address the elephant in the room. This event depends entirely on the Jan 19-21 storm system, how amped it is will impact how much cold air follows. It could end up being relatively tame, in which case the thread title will be renamed. But the potential exists for the coldest air of the season to reach the region, and that's all that matters at this point.
Doesn't this thread sound familiar? It's because it is. In fact, I can pretty much quote my opening from the last thread. Here's a look at where our polar airmass is coming from, courtesy of the 18z ICON. FV3-GFS 2-meter temperature anomalies - appears that the cold wave is at maximum on Saturday, December 8th. I did not include an end date to this thread because the "warmup" is storm-dependent. 18z ICON 2-meter temperatures - look at the below 0°F temperature range in the interior. And lastly, 18z NAM 12k 2-meter windchills... WOW. I'll be skiing Saturday morning, so I'll be in prime position to give OBS.
Well folks, it should be no surprise that we have been in an abnormally cold pattern. Yet, it continues, with a peak around Thanksgiving. GFS long loop, including past temperatures. As you can see, the temperatures are unusually cold. And then the polar air arrives around the 21st. GFS loop of 2 meter air temperatures. Verbatim, parts of PA, CT, NY remain below freezing for about 2 days, while the northern tier will struggle to reach the 20s. WOW. The ICON has been pretty good at forecasting temperatures. Just one look at the 2 meter temperatures is enough to make me go . I'll include the GEM as well, as it also shows the polar air of similar magnitude. Here's an ICON long loop, just to show where the air comes from. Arctic Oscillation Index. All sticking very low.