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Solstice posted a topic in North East | Mid AtlanticDoesn't this thread sound familiar? It's because it is. In fact, I can pretty much quote my opening from the last thread. Here's a look at where our polar airmass is coming from, courtesy of the 18z ICON. FV3-GFS 2-meter temperature anomalies - appears that the cold wave is at maximum on Saturday, December 8th. I did not include an end date to this thread because the "warmup" is storm-dependent. 18z ICON 2-meter temperatures - look at the below 0°F temperature range in the interior. And lastly, 18z NAM 12k 2-meter windchills... WOW. I'll be skiing Saturday morning, so I'll be in prime position to give OBS.
Well folks, it should be no surprise that we have been in an abnormally cold pattern. Yet, it continues, with a peak around Thanksgiving. GFS long loop, including past temperatures. As you can see, the temperatures are unusually cold. And then the polar air arrives around the 21st. GFS loop of 2 meter air temperatures. Verbatim, parts of PA, CT, NY remain below freezing for about 2 days, while the northern tier will struggle to reach the 20s. WOW. The ICON has been pretty good at forecasting temperatures. Just one look at the 2 meter temperatures is enough to make me go . I'll include the GEM as well, as it also shows the polar air of similar magnitude. Here's an ICON long loop, just to show where the air comes from. Arctic Oscillation Index. All sticking very low.