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About Me



Perfect Day

Found 8 results

  1. SPC-A marginal risk encompasses much of the Mid Atlantic, with a slight risk south of the Mid Atlantic. WPC-The WPC has also posted a large area under a slight chance of excessive rain with the storms from Delaware to Connecticut.
  2. There is a slight possibility of excessive rain in the region Wednesday July 17th. Afternoon storms will fire as post tropical Barry moves out. Although there storms will not be severe (Marginal chance in some areas), let’s see if the WPC is accurate about the flooding potential. Pictures... 1-rain outlook 2-severe outlook 3-future high res NAM
  3. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts are expected to develop across parts of the upper Ohio Valley, lower Great Lakes region, and Mid Atlantic Thursday afternoon into the evening. ...Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic... A shortwave trough initially centered from near the southern tip of Hudson Bay into the Lower Great Lakes will move eastward on Thursday. In conjunction with this trough, a surface low will move into Quebec and a trailing cold front will move across the OH Valley and Allegheny Plateau. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to generally remain modest, but low-level moisture will be sufficient to support at least moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE potentially rising above 2000 J/kg in areas where stronger heating occurs. Effective shear of 25-35 kt will support some storm organization, especially where stronger instability is realized. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible by early afternoon along the cold front from the OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes, with additional development also expected further east into portions of the Mid Atlantic, given negligible capping across the warm sector. Multicell clusters will likely be the dominant mode, with an attendant risk of damaging wind and perhaps some marginally severe hail. In areas where surface winds are locally backed, due either to terrain features or mesoscale surface boundaries, some supercell potential may evolve as well. Any supercell would be accompanied by a somewhat greater risk of hail and perhaps a brief tornado, in addition to the damaging wind threat. ...Central Gulf Coast... NHC is forecasting the development of a tropical cyclone across the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. The system is forecast to move west-southwestward through the first half of the period, with a potential turn more to the west-northwest tomorrow night. Low-level flow fields will strengthen as the system intensifies, though the westerly motion of the cyclone and forecast for the center to remain well offshore through the period are not ideal for a TC tornado threat. A brief tornado threat cannot be ruled out near the central Gulf Coast, especially later in the period as the system intensifies. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be possible, especially across portions of central/western LA and the upper TX coast during the afternoon/evening, where strong heating/destabilization is possible prior to scattered thunderstorm development, within a regime of modestly increasing northeasterly flow in response to the deepening cyclone. ...Northeast ND into northern MN... Midlevel flow will increase substantially across ND into northern MN during the day on Thursday, as a fast-moving shortwave trough traverses the Canadian Prairies. A surface low attendant to the shortwave will move into southern MB by tomorrow evening, as a trailing cold front moves through the northern Plains. With initially modest low-level moisture and a tendency for the strongest large-scale ascent to remain north of the international border, the potential for convection along the front into northeast ND/northwest MN remains highly uncertain. However, wind profiles and instability will be favorable for organized convection, and there will be a conditional severe risk with any storms that develop in situ along the cold front and/or move into the region from southern MB. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal
  4. Looks like we have some organized severe weather in the pipeline tomorrow. Seems to be widespread enough that it warrants its own thread. SPC Convective Outlook. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 351 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019 18z NAM 3k radar. Activity really gets going around 4-5 PM. 12z HRDPS loop. Very "active" with the pop-ups. This model tends exaggerate the "width" or area of instability, but magnitude is usually accurate. 18z NAM 3k MLCAPE at 3 PM. Atmosphere looks primed.
  5. April 14-15, 2019 Possible Severe Weather Event Disco Is there a rumble of thunder on the way? Or perhaps the sound of hail hitting the roof? Strong winds blowing stuff around? Maybe darkness takes over and the lightning for a couple of seconds interrupts it. Ah, and there´s also the good old heavy rain. Well, posters and readers, it looks like severe weather is on the way for the Mid-Atlantic and portions of Southern New England. There appears to be enough instability and energy available to work with the FROPA that will be pushing eastward through the region on April 14th, as the storm center (the recent enraged blizzard that paralyzed the Midwest) responsible for the cold front, will track over the western Great Lakes and push the cold front through the region, causing the cold front dynamics and lift to clash with the available instability and CAPE energy out ahead. All that will be supported by a decently robust southwest flow flooding the region with higher heat energy and air moisture content in the form of higher dew point temperature values. Let´s check some important severe weather parameters to see how the potential stacks: First off the main ones; CAPE and shear-related parameters: Bulk Shear Threshold values Storm Relative Helicity 0-1 km Storm Relative Helicity 0-3 km Threshold values Threshold values Most Unstable and Surface-Based CAPE Threshold values Please go to the next page to see the other severe weather parameters and their values for this potential event. After checking the main parameters, we need to analyze the complementary and supportive ones. Please see them below: Lapse Rate: 700-500 mb Surface Based Lifted Index Threshold values Threshold values Surface-Based LCL Energy Helicity Index 0-1 km K Index Overall, I would say that as of April 12th, 2019, the odds for a stronger severe weather event for the Mid-Atlantic especially, are pretty decent. The close to the Ohio Valley one goes or is, the better the chances for stronger severe weather. The post following this one will display SPC´s Day 3 outlook, which would indicate an enhanced chance of severe weather closer and over the Ohio Valley and a slight risk for areas to the east. Let´s see how this one will unfold.
  6. The SPC is already outlining probabilities four and five days out. Day 3 (Friday, April 12/overnight Saturday, April 13) has a Marginal Risk in northern and central Texas. Day 4 (Saturday, April 13/overnight Sunday, April 14) has an Enhanced Risk in the "Arklamiss" region, and a Slight Risk from eastern Texas to Alabama. Day 5 (Sunday, April 14/overnight Monday, April 15) has a Slight Risk for Alabama, Georgia, upstate South Carolina and the Florida panhandle. Discuss.
  7. The SPC is already issuing a 30% probability in the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday, and 15% probability in Georgia and the Carolinas on Tuesday. That's a bad omen. I don't want to die or get my house smash, especially not right before the holidays.
  8. Well folks, ushering the cold air in is a line of thunderstorms. Looks to be a potent line for the western part of the region. Eastern? Well... it all depends on how it holds together. SPC Outlook. Note the strong west-east gradient. NAM 3k. As you can see, this solution is a "fall-apart" one. HRDPS. In contrast to the NAM 3k, the heavy rains for this last a lot longer. Though I have noticed this model has been hit-or-miss with these events. AFDs.
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