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White Christmas?

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Perfect Day

Found 5 results

  1. Good morning everyone, Ooh, my first time opening a thread on the new forum! Let us begin: The long range GFS and FV-3 GFS have both been repeatedly advertising a storm in the early days of December. As always at this range, the important thing is a storm signal, rather than any specifics at a particular level. The signal is certainly there: here are the 06z runs of the GFS and FV-3 GFS, respectively. This potential also has support from certain Organic Methods, specifically, the Bearing Sea Rule, which displays two separate potentials; one around December 2nd, and a few days later on December 5th. Moving on to teleconnections; GFS ensembles seem to suggest a favorable -NAO, -AO, and neutral to +PNA pattern in the long range. It should be noted that these ensembles change quite often at this distance. Finally, here is the CPC single month forecast for December, released yesterday. It seems to suggest a favorable trough location over the month as a whole; we may, perhaps, see this pattern begin to establish itself during the first few days of the month. Again, this is very long range, nothing more than a signal to watch at this point. Still, we have early support from operational models, OFM, and teleconnections. What we must now watch over the next few days is if the signal stays consistent, or if it vanishes. Time will tell, as it always does. TDAT
  2. Setup Description Northern stream Clipper with southern stream energy interaction Hello, folks. Quick thread opener here to allow for a place to discuss a possible clipper storm that may try to come in unnoticed and hits by surprise, if there are surprises these days in weather. Taking a look at the BSR closely, even though I imagine very few people would start a high percentage failure storm thread, it suggests that a clipper will be diving southeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, and at the same time there´s a hint of a bit of low-pressure energy/trof of low pressure from the southern stream tracking towards the SE CONUS. From what I gathered from the BSR images, is that there´s a possibility that these two pieces could join up and for a bigger storm or just stay separate and the region get a decaying clipper or just a regular clipper passing through. But in case there´s some kind of interaction with the southern stream energy, we could get something out of this. Granted, the BSR shows no full-blown storm, Actually, the signal is weak and on the 30th of November, quite confusing. Let´s see if this evolves or just falls apart, just before the bigger ticket item progged to hit the area between December 2-3. Supportive Data BSR In case this does not pan out, the thread will eventually fall to the bottom of the page. And if for some reason this is a fantasy possibility only or related to any other storm, we can act accordingly later. Will add more support to the opener later if there is any available.
  3. Next in a series of systems looks to move in at this time frame. It’s a cut off low type system and could have lots of moisture associated with it. Areas around S ON should be able to pick up some accumulation from this and areas further east in NB could see heavy amounts of snow from the system as it continues on its track. Here are some model runs from today GFS GFS Snow map CMC CMC Snow map 12k NAM 12k NAM Snow map
  4. Another in a series of systems should be tracking into the region around this time frame. There is more cold air out in front of the low so looks to be a better chance for accumulating snow for several areas including around the GTA. Here are some images from the latest model runs. GFS Snow map NAM is further east GEM is the furthest west This system definitely needs to be watched as I think it has good potential for accumulating snow for some areas that haven’t got any yet.
  5. Trying out what knorthern knight suggested about starting storm threads in the main forum section instead of the regional discussion threads. Anyways, looks like a system will be tracking into ON and then heading out east during this time frame. It’s the first of several opportunities for areas to see there first snowfall of the season. The pattern is turning colder for the next while with a train of systems tracking in and around the east. We’ll start with this one and go from there. Some areas should see snow from this. Areas around the lake shore might still be too warm for accumulations but some areas away from the lake shore will likely see some accumulation out of this system. Next system has the potential for more widespread snows. Lots to keep an eye on.
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