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idecline

ENSO/El Nino(La Nina) Discussions

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Posted (edited)

The Canadian Model has El Nino continuing into next winter on its 3/31/19 update.

SOI in March finished at -6.5.

D3B8InaUkAAcrqz.jpg

Subsurface is still pretty warm.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Edited by raindancewx

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...the latest NCEP/CPC ENSO/El-Nino diagnostic is in...much cooler waters persist in the Regions 1+2...(probably due to what looks to be upwelling right along the SA coast from storminess and a continuing strong, cool Humboldt current that has made forecasting both El-Nino's and La Nina's very difficult in the last few years...this side(southern) has always been a little lop-sided with so much cooler water being transferred from the Antarctic clime north from Chile towards Peru...(lot of ice still left in the Antarctic...idee has heard this for years now):classic_wink:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

...let's look at TAO/TRITON Data...https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/assorted-plots

sst_wind_mon.png.333d71b267e36b88591467b593663f56.pngsst_wind_qrt.png.35dc992f575b77690218a0e4b99c9c63.png

 

...um... temperatures are still slowly moving east, in spite of strong trades putting the 'real' El-Nino in limbo... just another MJO enhancement or WWB away from the Regions 1+2 warming again for continued progression of the easterly progress of 'convection'...as the NCEP/CPC diagnostic says: 

Quote

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation) were evident around Borneo, the Philippines, and Malaysia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation) were prominent around the Date Line. Anomalous low-level (850-hPa) westerly winds were evident over the far western equatorial Pacific. Upper-level (200-hPa) winds were mostly near average across the equatorial Pacific.

...to idee this 'tells' of a continuing battle of eastern 'progression' of convection being interrupted(or lessened by continued "non-coupled' conditions...however the continuation of 'suppressed convection in far western EQ Pacific Ocean gives the chance for another chance of 'late-season' coupling....especially with the arrival of the next OKW on the shores of SA...if the continuing regime of cooler waters in Region 1+2 continue, then so-called modified 'Modoki' effects may be all we see of this event...their is a lot of convection near the dateline...

...all in all this has not been a 'prototypical' El-Nino event by any means...and our modern understanding of ENSO events is very limited by lack of observation and data before the 20th century...let's see what the next week brings...(and hopefully the March 'bathtub' view)

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As promised last Fall, the 2018-19 ENSO is now classified as El Nino by CPC - and going by March, it will continue at least into FMA, probably peaking in that time. I'd expect it to last to at least MAM in an ONI sense.

 

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8
2019 0.8 0.8

 

El Nino is official. March was 28.13C, +0.93C using the CPC standard. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

2018   9   27.19   26.80    0.39
2018  10   27.62   26.75    0.86
2018  11   27.61   26.75    0.86
2018  12   27.49   26.65    0.84
2019   1   27.21   26.45    0.76
2019   2   27.49   26.66    0.83
2019   3   28.14   27.21    0.93

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

...the above link takes you to the latest weekly NCEP/CPC ENSO/El Nino diagnostic PDF...it shows the 'Official' El Nino CPC/IRI statistics that bear out the 'fact' that we are (and have been) under the spell of an El Nino this winter into spring...albeit without a lot of 'direct' effect felt in the United States...another extended Pacific jet gives hope of more rain and snow entering into the system from the Pacific jet stream still running a high amount of activity in to the west at a lower than average latitude than climatology would suggest...

...this would have bearing on the amount of rain, snow and severe weather that looks to be in store for the next couple of weeks across the CONUS...California has not quite gotten any spectacular moisture feed storms for awhile, yet activity is sending lots of energy eastwards

...as to the El Nino...the OKW that is slowly appproaching the SA coast should eliminate the small vestige of cooler than average sub-surface waters around 90W in the next few weeks...the sudden drop in SST's to -0.2C in the Nino Regions 1+2 has already risen back to 0.0C only one week later, and SST's in the other 3 regions are still high, indicating an ongoing El Nino, not a declining El Nino...this should be even more evident with the surfacing of the OKW any day now...winds are still erratic in the Pacific equatorial basin and have not reverted to anything that resembles a reduction in El Nino conditions...in fact, the pattern seems to be gearing up for one more shot at a 'true' El Nino coupling which could last into May or later...

wkxzteq_anm.gif.e6ae797fb571b762e826ddc15e17ad9e.gifsstanim.gif.32ad98fd1edfb6288b73863cf0e2c471.gifuv850-30d.gif.20d59f5424e29cd4ec824508bd95029b.gif

...all three of these graphs show ongoing El Nino conditions...with a distinct leaning towards another 'ramp up' of activity in the near future...and now (Ta Da) comes idee's favorite 'view' of an ENSO event...the TAO/TRITON Array 'bathtub' view...:classic_rolleyes:

frame024.png.79a0a609c87ad8b6a673331fb3608d7e.pngframe059.png.690c35a1a4ca73c1e112e6686ca50775.pngframe060.png.9964de32667b88778788a613ba6e97ef.png

...and for those not having "3D vision"...here is the 'official explanatory of the 'view'...a very dramatic change is evident with a simple observation of the surface temps in the EPAC...and a comparison of El Nino conditions from March of 2016... Enjoy!

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/ani/....the TAO/TRITON animations give a very convincing overview of how 'dynamic' the actual conditions of an ENSO event are, and 'observation' is always a very 'visceral' way to become educated about these events...:classic_wink:

Quote

black.gif This is a view of the current El Nino / La Nina evolving in the tropical Pacific Ocean. You are looking westward, across the equator in the Pacific Ocean, from a vantage point somewhere in the Andes Mountains in South America. The colored surfaces show TAO/TRITON ocean temperatures. The top surface is the sea-surface, from 8°N to 8°S and from 137°E to 95°W. The shape of the sea surface is determined by TAO/TRITON Dynamic Height data. The wide vertical surface is at 8°S and extends to 500 meters depth. The narrower vertical surface is at 95°W. The animation frames show monthly values for the last 60 months. All of these data come from the TAO/TRITON Array of moored ocean buoys in Equatorial Pacific.

 

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Posted (edited)

...the latest weekly CPC/NCEP ENSO/El Nino diagnostic is in...we are still under 'mild' El Nino conditions...the experts graphs are forecasting this event to last into fall, but that remains to be seen...what is more important is this spring's reaction to El Nino's effect...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

...a most interesting observation is made about OKW's...that the front portion of the wave brings warmer sub-surface waters to the east (downwelling  portion)...the trailing portion of the wave brings in some cooler anomalies (upwelling portion)...well so far this El Nino has maintained it's overall 'grip' on the SST's and sub-surface heating to continue to exist for the time being...several mixes of cooler waters off the SA coast have lowered the SST's in the Regions 1+2 several times, only to see the SST's spike once the mix-in was over...

...also the diagnostic quotes:

Quote

Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation) were evident around the Philippines and Malaysia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation) were present around the Date Line and western equatorial Pacific. Anomalous low-level (850-hPa) westerly winds were evident over the far western equatorial Pacific. Upper-level (200-hPa) westerly wind anomalies were present across the central and western equatorial Pacific.

Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.

olra-30d.gif.f29b535fad34e2d9bca457785fed1a09.gifuv200-30d.gif.d77a3d8fe1029825e79680880d012c03.gif

...loosely based on the above information...the 'convection center' over Maylasia and the Phillipines is not producing much activity (higher OLR)...while the area around the Dateline shows continued 'anomalous' convection that is still creeping eastwards...hmmm...

...could it be that one more strong OKW will form before the cooler trailing portions begin to erode the high SST's numbers...and will 'convection' continue to progress eastwards...signifying a closer 'coupling' of El Nino conditions to cause effects into the CONUS soon...

...the probabilities of the El Nino lasting into next winter are only so, so at this point...especially when seasonal changes would really mute any Northern Hemisphere outcomes during the summer months when the Pacific jet is shunted to the far northern latutudes...

...in the meanwhile...some possible effect of the ongoing El Nino conditions could start to take place in the coming weeks...especially if another MJO progresses across to influence the influx of warm moist air from the tropical regions into storms in the CONUS...

...now ...further explanations of the 'bathtub' and why it 'graphically' shows so much about how the ocean 'responds' to ENSO/El Nino-La Nina conditions:

Quote

Equatorial Pacific conditions during a major El Niño

These images show a cross section of sea temperature and height along the equator in the Pacific Ocean, from Asia on the left,  to South America on the right.

Sea surface height is represented by the bumps,  and sea temperature is represented by color, where red is 86 ºF (30 ºC) and blue is 46 ºF (8 ºC). 

The border between the cyan and dark blue colors is the thermocline, where the sea water is 68 ºF (20 ºC).  Normally, the the thermocline slopes gently upwards and is nearer to the surface off the coast of South America, and warm water is close to Asia, whereas during El Niño, the warm water spreads eastward across the Pacific towards South America, and the thermocline flattens out.

elnino-normal-lanina-upper-ocean-temps-nasa-horizontal.thumb.png.18a9d8e1d4494e6f30e9cc78b92b0772.png

...this was views from NASA TOPEX/Poseidon program that shows the 'bumpy' surface the ocean, indicating sea heights above normal...this product is no longer available...so the 'bathtub' is what we have now...the sea-level heights and thermocline depths are vital features of an El Nino event...https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/topex/

the 'bathtub', again, from the TAO/Triton array animations page shows these features in another manner...and notice which way the arrows of sub-surface movement are all facing...ummm...yes, correct...west to east...which agains signals a still ongoing El Nino (Official!)

frame060.png.63ac315d4f2b0be8dbb3d13503041843.pngwksl_anm.thumb.gif.fac29c66ab3f4634f368075db8f8f4a8.gif

Edited by idecline

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For the next few months, expecting to see slow, but steady weakening of the El Nino. Not much warmth left below the surface - it was near 200m in March, now only around 100m.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

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Subsurface heat for the 100-180W zone fell to +0.65 in April, but I think April 2019 will come in as one of the warmest Aprils in Nino 3.4, around 28.6C. The way CPC calculates ONI, the FMA period should come in right around +0.9C, and against longer term averages (1951-2010 say), it'd be even warmer than that since CPC uses a modern baseline for April that is +0.3C above the baseline for older Aprils.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Latest weekly CPC/NCEP  ENSO/El Nino Diagnostic is in...very impressive indeed...El Nino is not even hinting at going away yet...it spite of what naysayers may have predicted...in fact westerly wind anomalies in the Western Equatorial Pacific Ocean are becoming persistent...https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

...the cooler waters expanding below the surface of the warm SST's are not necessarily 'signaling' that the end of this 'event' is near at hand...in fact, with the continued OLR anomalies in the Eq. Western Pacific seem to indicate 'upwelling' because of reduced convection...

...idee does not yet agree that these waters are going to move east, nor will they significantly effect the ongoing warmth until no more OKW's are initiated...the westerly wind anomalies(which are likely to produce another OKW) along with high convection (and surface water levels) are still creeping towards the Eastern  Pacific Equatorial basin...this convection should continue to push east towards a likely more efficient usage of the current El Nino to help pump moisture into the Desert SouthWest and Lower Plains of the US...to look at climatology for answers to this El Nino 'event' seems to be very thin ice to walk on, as this El Nino has confounded many a forecaster already...until cooler waters are seen at the surface in Regions 1+2 and we have the thermocline return to 'normal' along the SA coast, idee's opinion is that El Nino will persist at least until late June...

...it appears that a 'coupling' of El nino effects with the atmospheric conditions of late Spring will be very conducive for a re-invigoration of the 'event', and the long-term outputs from WPC seem to hint at this being a real possibility...

idee rant#12,672 (Warning: this is idee's personal opinion and is not necessarily what a lot of 'scholars' might be saying):classic_wink: 

WK34prcp.gif.a83837f987a95d51098b285224385fba.giftlon_heat.gif.c979fba79c417eae5656e2a391a0df31.gif

...the continued progression of the MJO may be the 'oxygen' that breathes 'life' into a full-blown' El Nino 'event' that persists longer than anticipated by many...(again it is idee's 'opinion' that a 'coupling' of atmosphere and oceanic 'drivers' is on the 'horizon)

obs_phase40_small.gif.4765d5a399260ace3e902fb48034852c.gifcurrent_anom_200wind_small.gif.2aa5b5e260775d1305999bd6ac11911d.gifwkd20eq2_anm.thumb.gif.9ea6b0e98447ff055e8d02c4a193d072.gif

...all in all this is lot of 'information' to understand...yet it clearly (to idee's addled brain) that this event is again about to 'ramp-up' (or at least persist for quite awhile)...

 

Edited by idecline

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Posted (edited)

Hey...guess who is back!   :classic_rolleyes:

This post is just to show the 'progression' of a full-blown El Nino from idee's favorite 'perspective'...i.e. the TAO/TRITON Array 3D 'Bathtub'...https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/ani/

frame053.png.aea0e7468ade31d1e29f3011b7808309.pngframe054.png.f1736d4a6518e134411bf0cbe5b1f2f6.pngframe055.png.f7a7203aefd3b1ee4bad1e171795aa99.pngframe056.png.8f7e0bae9626acded70bb685d0be8d8c.png

frame057.png.5f139181fe4508ecb2e344282b4fd372.pngframe058.png.f9ed4a0bca2a7f6c49d809e05722eae4.pngframe059.png.3a8b38823bf021cef417b54c3027cd9f.pngframe060.png.9f210d89a3b13b649ffc02254d26abfc.png

...idee does not know if others can see what he sees...yet this clearly shows the 'progression' of an El Nino 'event' from it's infancy to it's 'fruition'...how much 'fruit' this 'event' bears remains to be seen...:classic_wink:

Again for the 'uninitiated' to the the 'bathtub'...here is the viewing 'explanation'...

Quote

 This is a view of the current El Nino evolving in the tropical Pacific Ocean. You are looking westward, across the equator in the Pacific Ocean, from a vantage point somewhere in the Andes Mountains in South America. The colored surfaces show TAO/TRITON ocean temperatures. The top surface is the sea-surface, from 8°N to 8°S and from 137°E to 95°W. The shape of the sea surface is determined by TAO/TRITON Dynamic Height data. The wide vertical surface is at 8°S and extends to 500 meters depth. The narrower vertical surface is at 95°W. The animation frames show monthly values for the last 60 months. All of these data come from the TAO/TRITON Array of moored ocean buoys in Equatorial Pacific.

 

 

 

Edited by idecline

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The weeklies showed significant cooling this week. We'll see if it lasts. Subsurface has been cooling too in the 100-180W zone.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 03APR2019     25.9 0.0     28.2 0.8     28.5 0.9     29.1 0.8
 10APR2019     25.8 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.6 0.9     29.2 0.8
 17APR2019     25.5 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.6 0.8     29.3 0.8
 24APR2019     25.2 0.1     28.3 0.9     28.7 0.9     29.2 0.7
 01MAY2019     25.1 0.3     28.1 0.8     28.7 0.9     29.4 0.7
 08MAY2019     24.6 0.1     27.7 0.5     28.3 0.5     29.4 0.7

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On 10/3/2018 at 5:23 PM, raindancewx said:

Here is the PDO method I mentioned for anyone curious. You take the JISAO PDO (North Pacific ocean/pressure pattern) for March-August, and then blend in Nino 1.2 in October. Here are the results for the past 20+ years of hind-casting. Nino 1.2 will be warmer in October, but the Mar-Aug PDO is lower than last year. So will be interesting to see what the blend produces this year. I do this programatically with SQL.

The PDO numbers are actually out through August by the way - so the Mar-Aug value was +0.07. Nate has issues updating the JISAO site, but I'm on his mailing list, I think anyone can join if you like seeing the numbers.

av7gZtx.png

 

Nov-Apr Projection Actual Error
1995 0.33 0.62 0.29
1996 0.48 0.38 0.10
1997 n/a 1.24 n/a
1998 -0.15 -0.45 0.30
1999 -1.03 -0.98 0.05
2000 0.31 0.17 0.14
2001 -0.72 -0.55 0.17
2002 0.30 1.69 1.39
2003 0.73 0.49 0.24
2004 0.22 0.47 0.25
2005 -0.12 0.14 0.26
2006 0.07 -0.04 0.11
2007 -0.72 -0.94 0.22
2008 -0.96 -1.39 0.43
2009 0.06 0.43 0.37
2010 -0.98 -0.82 0.17
2011 -1.14 -1.28 0.14
2012 -0.70 -0.40 0.30
2013 -0.03 0.38 0.41
2014 1.68 2.07 0.39
2015 1.66 1.70 0.04
2016 0.99 1.06 0.07
2017 0.09 0.30 0.21

PDO finished at +0.5 for Nov-Apr. The method in my winter forecast implied about +0.4 for that period, so worked again. The link is where the JISAO PDO is housed now.

 

2018-11-01T00:00:00Z    -0.05
2018-12-01T00:00:00Z    0.52
2019-01-01T00:00:00Z    0.66
2019-02-01T00:00:00Z    0.46
2019-03-01T00:00:00Z    0.37
2019-04-01T00:00:00Z    1.07

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

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...this look to the subsurface waters indicates a very cool trailing portion (upwelling) of the last OKW has arrived with surfacing cooler waters...also climatologically, the Humboldt current along the coast of SA is creating equatorial bound cooler upwelling water to head towards the region...the only chance of a re-start to this ENSO/El Nino event is that the strong convection around the Date Line along with the anomalous westerly winds that continue across the EQ. Pacific form one more OKW in the near future...otherwise this event may be winding down...we shall see in the next few weeks whether the invigorated Pacific jet and any possible MJO influence can 'kick-start' an attempt at 'coupling' with all the convection that the ITCZ is producing this time of year...ugdas_c.gif.b7ad75c82ca28baf2289efbb29332072.gifua850_c.gif.33b80156877920efd1129e62cd3effca.gif

...whether or not this ENSO 'event' continues, we still have a large influx of Pacific air and moisture streaming into the CONUS for a few more days (and perhaps more) and the resultant high severe storm and flooding potential will remain for the near future in the Plains...

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The subsurface heat below 100-180W is now negative for the first time in over a year on the El Nino weekly update.

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...well. as idee suspected, the Nino Region SST's have again shot back up, especially in the Region 1+2...https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

...the latest CPC/NCEP weekly ENSO/El Nino diagnostic has shown that all 4 regions are between  +.6C to +.9C for the latest values...anomalous westerly winds are present almost entirely across the basin (probably ready to initiate another OKW any day now)...

...the lack of convective continues across Indonesia area, with enhanced convection in the central EQ Pacific continuing...along with other factors, this appears to be a 'jump-start' to this El Nino that has been very unpredictable...meaning "more to come"...:classic_wink:

  • The latest weekly SST departures are: 
  • Niño 4        +0.9ºC
  • Niño 3.4     +0.8ºC
  • Niño 3        +0.7ºC
  • Niño 1+2    +0.6ºC

...obviously, all of the 'negative' sub-surface water have continued to be 'warmed' upon surfacing (due to the depth of the 'thermocline' near the SA coast), and some of the graphs appear to show the beginning of what may be another Oceanic Kelvin Wave ready to move across the EQ. Pacific basin from West to East...providing another chance for 'coupling' of the El Nino warm water into the atmospheric 'flow' that sends sub-tropical moisture into the CONUS via the STJ...despite all of the 'naysayers' who have now scurried away from any discussion of this 'amazing' event (simply because of their egotistical approach to weather- i.e. "What about IMBY? and others who simply insist they 'know' more and approach subjects as 'argumentation'...idee ranting again:classic_dry: ) 

...warning: idee is ranting... one thinks that by now, with all of the discussions about... modeling is not reality, most of the weather in the CONUS is a product of the Pacific Ocean (i.e. the Westerlies), and that the Bering Sea 'Rule' is common knowledge...why don't people pay more attention to where their weather 'comes from', instead of relying on computers to 'model and describe what is actually happening "OUTSIDE'....

thanks to anyone that listens...:classic_rolleyes: (doubtful idee...because most consider you a 'know-it-all' wacko):classic_wacko:

 

 

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I'd like to see the El Nino continue through Summer, as that's what I went with in my analogs, but my fear has been you don't tend to get two El Nino winters in a row, two times, in such a short period historically.

1951/1952, 1952/1953, 1953/1954 kind of works since 1957/1958, 1958/1959 was a double, but I don't consider 1952-53 to be an El Nino per se. Even here, three seasons (1954, 1955, 1956, between doubles)

1968/69, 1969-70...then the next double El Nino was 1976/77, 1977-78 (seven years between doubles)

2002/03, 2003/04, 2004/05? I don't consider 2003/04 an El Nino, and the next double event wasn't until 2014 anyway (ten years between doubles).

2014/15, 2015/16...then 2018/19, 2019/20? (two years between doubles? 2016, 2017)

1976/77, 1977/78...then the next double El Nino was 1986-87/1987-88 

1986/87, 1987/88...then 1990-91/1991-92? That's probably the closest - two years between doubles, but 1990-91 wasn't really an El Nino, it was just flirting with Neutral/El Nino for months by SSTs.

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Quote

A Review of Winter 2018-2019

5/13/2019

Seasonal weather forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center made in fall 2018 for the winter of 2018-19 were generally indicating warm and dry conditions, in line with the expected El Niño development. Did that actually occur in WA State? Here we review the winter of 2018-19, defined as the 6 months from October through March.

Figure 1 shows the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), a 3-month running mean of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3.4 region, from January 2007 through February 2019. El Niño developed late in the season, with the Climate Prediction Center issuing an El Niño advisory in mid-February. Warmer than normal SSTs in the equatorial Pacific developed in early fall, as indicated in Figure 1, but the atmosphere was slow to show signs of El Niño. The evolution of the SSTs during the "late blooming" El Niño was actually fairly similar to the one that occurred in 2014-15. The following year, 2015-16, was a strong El Niño event, which may portend another El Niño for next winter. The official forecasts reflect that, and indicate a higher likelihood (~50%) of El Niño conditions by Oct-Dec 2019 compared to neutral (~40%) or La Niña (~10%). There will be more confidence in the ENSO forecasts later this summer.

Fig1.thumb.png.436302ebcf3fbc3658133256d4b781ba.png

...just posted this on Spring 2019 outlooks...FWIW this is from State of Washington's 'Climatologist, Nick Bond who also is an Associate Professor of the College of the Environment at Washington State University    https://environment.uw.edu/faculty/nicholas-bond/

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4 month sequence of subsurface anomalies. Looks like we are in a bit of limbo.  Guess we'll just have to watch and see where it goes from here.

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ONI value for MAM was +0.8C.

May monthly reading was 28.49C - still in El Nino territory. 

My blend for Summer was 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015. As a blend, that is a 28.37C May, so looks fine so far.

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...the "ping pong" of higher then lower values continues in the ENSO Regions 1+2...now back to 0.0C (normal), other three regions are all well above NINO parameters...cold water influx from Argentina via the Humboldt current, and the trailing portion of the last OKW have really been wreaking havoc on the ability to forecast whether this El Nino fades or spikes one more time. It seems that even if it spikes once more there will be a lull late summer before the oceans and atmosphere 'decide' whether the El Nino conditions will return late year...

latest weekly CPC/NCEP ENSO/El Nino diagnostic show the potential for one more influx of warmer waters to push east...yet the subsurface waters in Regions 1+2 will have to surface and be either eliminated or...it may spell the end of this 'event'... we shall see...:classic_wink:

ssta_c.gif.149fbacd73a94325969d1d52e171139b.gifwkd20eq2_anm.thumb.gif.f63b05acc140687e7433669e2bc0a355.gifolra-30d.gif.36a52b70bb4e69f6658ae1d14ca11162.gif

...the first graph shows the high SST's that still remain in Regions 3, 3.4 and 4...the second more ominous graph shows a lot of cooler water in the sub-surface in the far Western Equatorial Pacific (possible end to El Nino?)...

...yet the the OLR shows continued very anomalous lack of convection around the Indonesian islands areas...and anomalous OLR values remain in the area around the dateline...which indicate above normal convection...will another OKW initiate?...

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Posted (edited)

...and for fans of the 'Bathtub'...(mostly idee)...here is the last two tubs...the shape and evolution of this El Nino is at a crossroads...the mountain of water in the Western Equatorial Pacific has wriggled about and flattened out also...what is next?

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temperatures are eroding in some areas, yet most are still well above normal..either we will see one more push before Summer, or the subsurface cooler waters may begin to take hold...it is still 50/50 in my view as to whether we "double up" (back to back Nino's) or whether we shoot straight into neutral conditions...and perhaps even mild La Nina conditions this winter...from the TAO/Triton data animations page...https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/ani/

 

Edited by idecline

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Latest CPC/NCEP weekly ENSO/El Nino diagnostic is in...continued cooling of surface waters in Regions 1+2 from the previous 'trailing' portion of an OKW have really cooled SST's to below normal levels...other 3 regions are still in midst of 'El Nino'...

...in our limited knowledge of previous El Nino/La Nina events this continued drop in Regions 1+2 would almost be certain 'anecdotal' evidence of this event's end...yet, this El Nino has defied the odds already and became 'Official' when many said it would not...

...now it may again defy the odds again as another OKW (downwelling:classic_wink:) has initiated in the Far Western Equatorial Pacific Ocean and is heading towards the east...this may be the 'kick-start' of one more last push of convection towards the eastern basin...

...OLR anomalies are still keeping the column of convection that usually exists around Indonesia to a minimum, and anomalous convection is still present in the Central EQ. Pacific Ocean (low OLR #'s)...

...combined with the stubborn pattern of Pacific jet stream activity make this event look like it still maintaining an influence on the atmosphere..despite no real 'coupling' of moisture feeds, the Pacific LP pattern in the GOA still has a 'Nino' feel to it...

still trying to behave in a winter/spring syle pattern makes this a very unusual event to say the least...what is next?   https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

quote from above ENSO diagnostic :   basically this explains(plus an influx of cooler waters from the SA southern coast via the Humboldt current) why the waters in Regions 1+2 have cooled so dramatically...still another 'warm-up' may be imminent...

Quote

Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific.

Equatorial oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cold phases. The warm phase is indicated by dashed lines. Downwelling and warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the trailing portion.

In early August, October, November 2018 and in January-March 2019, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased, partly due to downwelling Kelvin waves.

During May 2019, an upwelling Kelvin wave contributed to the reduction of positive subsurface anomalies and emergence of negative anomalies around 120º-90ºW. Since mid-May, a downwelling Kelvin wave resulted in the increase of positive subsurface anomalies in the central and east-central Pacific.

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...again these graphs are 'food for thought'...they definitely show warmer waters potentially arriving in Regions 1+2 soon...IMHO 

Edited by idecline

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